Agricultural Research Management Information System

  • Home
  • Research Summary
    • All
    • Government Organization
      • Agriculture Training Institute, Ishwardi, Pabna
      • Bangabandhu academy for poverty alleviation and rural development (BAPARD)
      • Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Science & Technology University
      • Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics
      • Bangladesh Institute of Health Sciences
      • Bangladesh Institute of Tropical & Infections Diseases (BITID)
      • Bangladesh Meteorological Department
      • Bangladesh National Herbarium
      • Bangladesh Space Research and Remote Sensing Organization
      • Bangladesh Technical Educational Board
      • Barind Multipurpose Development Authority
      • Central Cattle Breeding Station
      • Department of Agriculture Extension
      • Department of Fisheries
      • Department of Livestock Services
      • Department of Youth Development
      • Dhaka Medical College
      • Geological Survey of Bangladesh
      • Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control & Research
      • Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University
      • Khulna Govt. Women College
      • Livestock Training Institute
      • Local Government Engineering Department
      • Ministry of Agriculture
      • Ministry of Environment and forest
      • Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock
      • Ministry of Labour & Employement
      • Ministry of Land
      • Ministry of Public Administration
      • Ministry of Textiles and Jute
      • Ministry of Water Resources
      • Ministry of Youth and Sports
      • National Agricultural Training Academy
      • National institute of preventive and social medicine
      • National Mushroom Development and Extension Centre
      • Pabna University of Science and Technology
      • Seed Certification Agency
      • Shaheed Suhrawardy Medical College
      • Sheikh Hasina University
      • University Grants Commission
      • Youth Training Centre
    • Autonomous/Semi-gov Org
      • Bangladesh Academy for Rural Development
      • Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation
      • Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission
      • Bangladesh Council of Scientific and Industrial Research
      • Bangladesh Fisheries Development Corporation
      • Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies
      • Bangladesh Institute of Management
      • Bangladesh Milk Producers Cooperative Union Limited
      • Bangladesh Water Development Board
      • BIRDEM
      • Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services
      • Hortex Foundation
      • Institute of Water Modeling
      • National Institute of Biotechnology
      • River Research Institute
      • Rural Development Academy
    • NARS
      • Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council
      • Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute
      • Bangladesh Fisheries Research Institute
      • Bangladesh Forest Research Institute
      • Bangladesh Institute of Nuclear Agriculture
      • Bangladesh Jute Research Institute
      • Bangladesh Livestock Research Institute
      • Bangladesh Rice Research Institute
      • Bangladesh Sericulture Research and Training Institute
      • Bangladesh Sugarcrop Research Institute
      • Bangladesh Tea Research Institute
      • Bangladesh Wheat and Maize Research Institute
      • Cotton Development Board
      • Soil Resource Development Institute
    • Public University
      • Ahsanullah University of Science and Technology
      • Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University
      • Bangamata Sheikh Fojilatunnesa Mujib Science and Technology University
      • Bangladesh Agricultural University
      • Bangladesh Open University
      • Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
      • Bangladesh University of Professionals
      • Bangladesh University of Textiles
      • Barisal Government Veterinary College
      • Begum Rokeya University
      • Chittagong University of Engineering and Technology
      • Chittagong Veterinary and Animal Science University
      • Comilla University
      • Dhaka University of Engineering & Technology
      • Dinajpur Government Veterinary College, Dinajpur
      • Gono Bishwabidyalay
      • Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and Technology University
      • Islamic University, Kushtia
      • Jagannath University
      • Jahangirnagar University
      • Jessore University of Science and Technology
      • Jhenaidha Government Veterinary College
      • Khulna Agricultural University
      • Khulna University
      • Khulna University of Engineering & Technology
      • Mawlana Bhashani Science and Technology University
      • Millitary Institute of Science and Technology
      • National University
      • Noakhali Science and Technology University
      • Patuakhali Science and Technology University
      • Rajshahi University of Engineering and Technology
      • Shahjalal University of Science & Technology
      • Sher-e-Bangla Agricultural University
      • Sylhet Agricultural University
      • Sylhet Government Veterinary College
      • University of Barisal
      • University of Chittagong
      • University of Dhaka
      • University of Rajshahi
    • Private University
      • Asian University of Bangladesh
      • Atish Dipankar University of Science and Technology
      • BGC Trust University Bangladesh
      • BGMEA University of Fashion & Technology (BUFT)
      • BRAC University
      • City University
      • Daffodil International University
      • East West University
      • Exim Bank Agricultural University
      • Gana Bishwabiddalaya
      • Hamdard University
      • Independent University, Bangladesh
      • International Islamic University Chittagong
      • International University of Business Agriculture and Technology
      • Islamic University of Technology
      • Leading University, Sylhet
      • North South University
      • Premier University
      • Primeasia University
      • Private University
      • SOAS, University of London
      • Southeast University
      • Stamford University
      • State University of Bangladesh
      • The Millenium University
      • University of Asia Pacific
      • University of Development Alternative
      • University of Information Technology and Sciences
      • University of Liberal Arts Bangladesh
      • University of Science and Technology, Chittagong
      • World University
    • INGO/IO/NGO/Private Org
      • ACI Limited
      • Agricultural Advisory Society (AAS)
      • Apex Organic Industries Limited
      • Arannayk Foundation
      • Bangladesh Academy of Sciences
      • Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies
      • Bangladesh Institute of Social Research
      • Bangladesh Science Foundation
      • Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad
      • BAPA
      • BRAC
      • CARE Bangladesh
      • CARITAS
      • Centre for Environmental Geographical Information System
      • Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD)
      • Creative Conservation Alliance
      • Dhaka Ahsania Mission
      • Dwip Unnayan Sangstha
      • EMBASSY OF DENMARK, BANGLADESH
      • Energypac Limited Bangladesh
      • FAO- Bangladesh
      • FIVDB
      • ICDDRB, Mohakhali, Dhaka-1212
      • iDE Bangladesh
      • Innovision Consulting Private Ltd.
      • International Center for Climate Change and Development
      • International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
      • International Development Research Centre
      • International Fertilizer Development Center, Bangladesh
      • International Food Policy Research Institute
      • International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre
      • International Potato Center
      • IRRI- Bangladesh
      • IRRI-Philippines
      • Ispahani Agro LTD
      • IUCN, Bangladesh
      • Krishi Gobeshina Foundation
      • Lal Teer
      • Mennonite Central Committee
      • Metal (Pvt.) Ltd
      • Modern Herbal Group
      • Palli Karma-Sahayak Foundation
      • Practical Action Bangladesh
      • Proshika
      • RDRS Bangladesh
      • RIRI-Philippines
      • Rothamsted Research
      • SAARC Agricultural Centre
      • SAARC Meteorological Research Centre
      • Social Upliftment Society
      • South Asia Enterprise Development Facility
      • Square Pharmaceuticals Ltd.
      • Supreme Seed
      • Transparency International Bangladesh
      • Unnayan Onneshan
      • USAID
      • Water Resources Planning Organization
      • Winrock International
      • World Bank
      • World Food Program
      • World Vegetable Center
      • WorldFish Centre, Bangladesh
    • Foreign University
      • Asian Institute of Technology
      • Auckland University of Technology
      • Australian National University
      • Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya
      • BOKU-University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences
      • Cranfield University
      • Curtin University
      • Foreign University/ Institute
      • Hiroshima University
      • Hokkaido University
      • Huazhong Agricultural University
      • International Islamic University, Malaysia
      • Kagawa University
      • Kangwon National University
      • Kochi University
      • Kyoto University
      • Kyushu University
      • Ladoke Akintola University of Technology
      • Murdoch University
      • Nagoya University
      • NOAA-CREST, CCNY
      • Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University
      • San Diego State University
      • Shinshu University
      • Tottori University
      • United Nations University
      • University Malaysia Kelantan
      • University Malaysia Pahang
      • University Nova de Lisboa
      • University of Alberta
      • University of Bremen
      • University of Bremen
      • University of Calgary
      • University of california
      • University of Greenwich
      • University of Hamburg, Hamburg
      • University of Hannover
      • University of Hawaii
      • University of Helsinki, Finland
      • University of Kalyani
      • University of Leeds
      • University of Liverpool
      • University of Malaya
      • University of Milan
      • University of New England
      • University of Philippines
      • University of Plymouth
      • University of Queensland
      • University of Reading
      • University of Southampton
      • University of Texas
      • University of the Punjab
      • University of Tokyo
      • University of Toronto
      • University of Wales
      • University of Washington
      • University of Wollongong
      • University Putra Malaysia
      • University Sains Malaysia
  • Search
    • Search by Keyword
    • Search by Organization
    • Search by Program Area
    • Search by Commodity/Non-commodity
    • Search by Funding Source
    • Search by Researcher
    • Custom Search
    • On-going Research
  • About Us
    • ARMIS
    • Brochure
  • Contact Us
    • BARC Personnel
    • ARMIS Personnel
    • Feedback
  • Report
    • All
    • By Organization
      • Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council
      • Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute
      • Bangladesh Fisheries Research Institute
      • Bangladesh Forest Research Institute
      • Bangladesh Institute of Nuclear Agriculture
      • Bangladesh Jute Research Institute
      • Bangladesh Livestock Research Institute
      • Bangladesh Rice Research Institute
      • Bangladesh Sericulture Research and Training Institute
      • Bangladesh Sugarcrop Research Institute
      • Bangladesh Tea Research Institute
      • Bangladesh Wheat and Maize Research Institute
      • Cotton Development Board
      • Soil Resource Development Institute
    • Research Trend Analysis
  • User Request
  • Data Input
  • Help
    • Operation Manual
      • PDF
      • Video
    • Program Area & Commodity
  • We have reached 37600 number of research entries at this moment.
    • Logout

Research Detail

  1. Home
  2. Research
  3. Detail
N M F Rahman
Agricultural Statistics Division, BRRI, Gazipur, Bangladesh

M M Hasan
Agricultural Statistics Division, BRRI, Gazipur, Bangladesh

M I Hossain
Agricultural Statistics Division, BRRI, Gazipur, Bangladesh

M A Baten
Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology (SUST), Sylhet

S Hosen
Grain Quality and Nutrition Division, BRRI, Gazipur, Bangladesh

M A Ali
Director (Research), BRRI, Gazipur, Bangladesh

M S Kabir
Director (Administration and Common Service), BRRI, Gazipur, Bangladesh

Forecasting of rice area and production is an essential procedure in supporting policy decision  regarding food security and environmental issues. The main aim of this paper is to forecast Aus rice  area and production in Bangladesh. Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time-series methodology is considered for modeling and forecasting country's Aus rice area and production data commencing from 1971-72 to 2013-14. It was observed that ARIMA (1, 1, 5)  and ARIMA (1, 1, 4) model were performed better than the other ARIMA models for forecasting Aus area and production respectively. The Aus rice areas were forecasted 1041.12 and 499.31 thousand hectares and for production it was 2059.642 and 1781.545 thousand metric tons in 2014-15 and 2023-24 respectively. The forecasted Aus rice area and production both were showed a decreasing trend. Government should create an enabling environment to develop HYV rice varieties for Aus rice crop to ensure ongoing food security by increasing cultivated area and production.

 

  Aus rice, Box-Jenkins method, Non-stationary, ACF, PACF
  All over Bangladesh
  00-00-1971
  00-00-2014
  Crop-Soil-Water Management
  Rice

To determine the Forecasting Aus Rice Area and Production in Bangladesh using Box-Jenkins Approach

The time series data of Aus rice area and production of Bangladesh for the periods 1971-1972 to 2013-2014, collected from ‘Year Book of Agricultural Statistics’ is published by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Bangladesh, used in this study. Time series model: In this study the methodology first refers to use of ARIMA model as propounded by Box-Jenkins for forecasting of Aus rice area and production in Bangladesh. The Box-Jenkins methodology refers to the set of procedures for identifying, fitting, and checking models with time series data. (1) A pth-order autoregressive model: AR(p), which has the general form- Yt = Ø0 +C1Yt-1 +Ø2Ut-2 + ... +Øj pYt- p + e t, where,Yt = Response (dependent) variable at time t, Yt-1, Yt-2 ,..., Yt- p = Response variable at time, lags t−1, t−2, . . . , t−p, respectively. Ø0, Ø1,  Ø2 ,..., Ø p = Coefficients to be estimated, € t = Error term at time t. (2) A qth-order moving average model: MA(q), which has the general form- Yt = µ + €t -ø1€t-1 -ø2€t-2 - ... -øq€t-q, where, Yt = Response (dependent) variable at time t,  µ = Constant mean of the process, ø1,ø 2,...,øq = Coefficients to be estimated, €t -1, €t -2 ,...,€t -q = Errors in previous time periods that  are  incorporated  in  the response Yt,  €t = Error term at time t, (3) Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model: ARIMA (p,d,q), which has the general form Yt = Ø0 + Ø1Yt -1 + Ø2Yt -2 + ... + ØpYt - p + €t -Ø1€t-1 -Ø2€t-2 - ... -Øq€t-q, where, p, q and d denote the autoregressive, moving average and differenced order parameter of the process, respectively. Jarque-Bera test: The normality assumption is defined here using Jarque-Bera (1987) test,which a goodness of fit measure of departure from normality, based  on the  sample kurtosis (k) and skewness (s). Box-Pierce Q test: In order to check the adequacy of the model using a chi-square test, known as the Box-Pierce Q statistic, (Box and Pierce, 1970) on the autocorrelations of the residuals, the test statistic Q is defined.

  Bangladesh Rice J. 20 (1) : 1-10, 2016
  
Funding Source:
1.   Budget:  
  

The Box-Jenkins approach as an ARIMA model was used for the patterns of the past movement of a variable to forecast the future values. In this study, a short run forecasting of Aus rice area and production model were formulated. To select the best model for forecasting the latest available model selection criteria such as MSE, RMSE, MAE, MAPE, AIC, SBC, H-Q criterion, R square and Adjusted R square were used. The best selected ARIMA model for forecasting Aus area and production were observed ARIMA (1,1,5) and ARIMA (1,1,4) respectively. The  Aus rice area and production of Bangladesh were observed 1041.12 thousand hectare and 2059.64 thousand metric tons in 2014-15 and it were forecasted 499.31 thousand hectare and 1781.55 thousand metric tons for 2023-2024. The forecasted Aus rice area and production showed a decreasing trend. These projections help the government to make policies with regard to relative price structure, production and consumption and also to establish relations with other countries of the world.

  Journal
  


Copyright © 2025. Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council.