5. Divisiveness, diversity, and heterogeneity within and between states and cities are very real. To simplify the model, all of our deductions in this paper is based on the assumption of homogeneity.
Data source and preprocessing: Each indicator data in the MCFS system is obtained from the official website of the world bank, which provides detailed data on each indicator for all countries and regions in the world. Starting in 2006, Foreign Policy magazine, in collaboration with the Fund for Peace, produced the fragile states index (FSI). The FSI provides data on 12 indicators for 179 countries around the world, as well as a ranking of countries' vulnerability.
Collecting sufficient data is the basis of developing a complete index system. We searched the database and select 26 indicators of a fragile state and climate shock firstly. The availability of data is an essential issue. Consequently, it is essential to ensure the authenticity of the data. In this paper, if the data of a country only misses one or two indicators, the cubic spline interpolation method will be used to fit the missing data.
Primary index system: Modified index system of climate shocks (MCS)-
Firstly, 4 objective indicators are selected to construct the initial index system of climate shocks (UCS). Secondly, with consideration of climate policies of different states, government index (GI) as an objective indicator is added to modify the initial index system, where: MCS=UCS×GI
In this case, for each country, based on Group Decision Making (GDM) method government index is quantified by the score according to the experts’ experience. The score is between 0 and 2, which is corresponding to the qualitative description: high intensity, moderate intensity, low intensity. Consequently, the modified index system is more accurate to reflect climate shocks,
In this section, we refer to some case studies to analyze the factors of fragility. Different from the past references (Rice and Patrick, 2008) (Fate, 2004), we focus on indicators that reflect the basic condition of a country, because a fragile country is the ability of a country to provide basic essentials of its people. According to this principle, 21 indicators are selected to reflect four aspects of fragility, they are: economics, social welfare, security and politics. A modified model of index system of fragile states (MCFS). In this section, we aim to reflect how climate shock exerts an influence on fragility. Then based on the two systems (MCS and UCFS) aforementioned, we need to formulate a model where UCFS is modified by MCS. Furthermore, referring to some studies (Rice and Patrick, 2008), we assign climate shock indirectly influence some third-class indicators of security and politics (SP), they are: IDP, International violence score, Host, Sum of all armed conflicts of bordering states, Crime index, Regulation of Participation, Institutionalized Democracy Score.