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Modeling the Climate Change Impacts on Jute Production in Bangladesh

Md. Mujibur Rahman
Ph D Thesis
Department of Farm Power and Machinery, BAU, Mymensingh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

Predicted results showed an excellent agreement with the observed results. A system dynamics model FIBGROW was developed to predict the impacts of climate change on jute production in Bangladesh. The model was validated comparing the simulated values with the observed data. The agreements between the simulated and observed values were very good. Sensitivity analyses of the important parameters showed that initial light use efficiency of single leaf, maximum rate of photosynthesis of single leaf, extinction coefficient and initial leaf area value were found to be sensitive. Crop management strategies of plant density, sowing date, and their interactions were simulated and the predicted results agreed well with the reported values. Sixteen treatment combinations of temperature increment (0⁰C, + 1⁰C, +2⁰C, and +3⁰C) and solar radiation change (0%, +5%, +10%, and -5%) and twenty treatment combinations of CO2 concentration (390, 440, 490, 540 and 640 ppm) with the increase in average temperature (0⁰C, + 1⁰C, +2⁰C, and +3⁰C) were considered for fibre yield simulation. Increased fibre yield was simulated for the higher solar radiation and elevated CO₂ concentrations for 1⁰C increase in temperature but fibre yield decreased for the temperature rise of 2⁰C and 3⁰C. Fibre yields were simulated decadewise climatic variabilities up to the 2100 AD using the climate change prediction scenarios of IPCC and different GCMs. Fibre yields of jute are more or less same up to 2030. Simulated fibre yields for the predicted climate change scenarios showed a clear tendency of decreasing yield after 2030, which eventually falls down to 57.54% at the end of 2100 AD. Finally, FIBGROW model is an excellent tool for predicting potential yields, management strategies and climate change impacts on jute production system.

Keywords: Climate Change, Impact, Jute production

Location: Manikgonj

Start Date: 00-00-2006

End Date: 00-00-2007

Program Area: Resource Development and Management

Commodity: Jute

Objectives:

To study the growth patterns for different plant components at the development stages of two varieties of jute

Methodology:

Field studies for jute production system were conducted for two jute growing seasons (2006 and 2007) at Central Research Station of Bangladesh Jute Research Institute, Manikgonj to study the growth patterns for different plant components at the development stages of two varieties of jute. The life cycle assessments of jute production systems in Bangladesh were done for two distinct retting processes. Improved retting process consumed less input but produces almost same output and emitted less to water and air compared to the conventional one and the jute production in Bangladesh is environmentally sound.Two sets of experiments conducted in 2006 were used for training the models and another two sets of experiments conducted in 2007 were used for testing of the models.

Source of Information: Ph D thesis of Md. Mujibur Rahman, Department of Farm Power and Machinery, BAU, Mymensingh, Year 2008

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

Fibre yields were simulated decadewise climatic variabilities up to the 2100 AD using the climate change prediction scenarios of IPCC and different GCMs. Fibre yields of jute are more or less same up to 2030. Simulated fibre yields for the predicted climate change scenarios showed a clear tendency of decreasing yield after 2030, which eventually falls down to 57.54% at the end of 2100 AD. Finally, FIBGROW model is an excellent tool for predicting potential yields, management strategies and climate change impacts on jute production system.

Knowledge Management: Thesis