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Economic Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in Southern Zone of Bangladesh

Dr. Md. Rezaul Karim
Principal Scientific Officer
Agricultural Economics Division, BARI, Gazipur

Moniruzzaman
Senior Scientific Officer
Agricultural Economics Division, BARI, Gazipur

Sahadat Hossain
Chief Scientific Officer
Agricultural Economics Division, BARI, Gazipur

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The study was conducted in two consecutive years 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 in eight districts namely Patuakhali, Barguna, Bhola, Lakshmipur, Satkhira, Jhalokati, Khulna and Pirojpur districts respectively under the AEZs 13, 14, 17 and 18 to analyze the climate scenario and the economic impact of climate change on crop production in Southern zone of Bangladesh, using the Ricardian function. Average crop net revenue was obtained from 800 hundred sample farmers at taka 56614 per hectare. Both the temperature and rainfall data were collected from Bangladesh meteorological department website for the period of 1975-2010. The eight major crops were identified. The twelve different cropping patterns were found. The mean temperature was increased to 0.75 ⁰C with in 36 years i.e from 1975 to 2010. It witnessed that the rise of 1⁰C temperature requires 45 years. The rainfall was decreasing in Rabi and Kharif -1 season except Kharif- 2. But the yearly total rainfall was increased by 0.12 percent i.e. only 70 mm from 1975 to 2010. The inverse relationship was found between temperature and rainfall. The variability of rainfall was found irregular over the season as well as over the months. The highest marginal loss was estimated at taka 3009 million due to rise in temperature. The total loss of taka 7584 million was estimated where as per hectare loss was at taka 6482 due to four climatic variables in the study area.

Keywords: Cropping Pattern, Temperature, Rainfall

Location: Patuakhali, Barguna, Barguna, Bhola, Lakshmipur, Satkhira, Jhalokati, Khulna and Pirojpur

Start Date: 01-06-2010

End Date: 30-06-2012

Program Area: Risk Management in Agriculture

Non-commodity: Adoption and mitigation technology

Objectives:

To analyze the climate scenario, (b) to assess the economic impact of climate change on crop production in Southern zone of Bangladesh, using the Ricardian function, and (c) to inform policy-makers on proper adaptation options to counteract the harmful effects of such change.

Methodology:

Both primary and secondary data were used for the study. The primary data were related to the crop production at farm level and the secondary data were related to the district wise temperature and rainfall for the period of 1975 to 2010 collected from the various issues of the statistical year book of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). From the primary data, net revenue was calculated for each of the eight districts of Southern zone namely Patuakhali, Barguna, Bhola, Lakshmipur, Satkhira, Jhalokati, Khulna and Pirojpur respectively. A total of 800 farmers taking 100 farmers from each district were selected with the help of DAE personnel for interview. Further more sixten upazilas were scrutinized from eight districts. The eight upazilas namely Sadar, Dumki and Baufal of Patuakhali district, two upazilas namely Sadar and Amtoli of Barguna district, three upazilas namely Sadar, Charfesson and Barhanuddin of Bhola district, two upazilas namely Ramgati and Komol Nagar of Lakshmipur, two upazilas namely Kaliganj and Asasuni of Satkhira, one upazila namely Kathalia of Jhalohati, two upazilas namely Koyra and Dacope of Khulna and one upazila namely Matbaria of Pirojpur district respectively were selected for collecting primary data on crop production from the farmers. Ricardian type of net revenue function was used to estimate the related climatic parameters to quantify the extent of negative/positive effect. Following Mendelsohn et al., 1994 and 1996, a log linear Ricardian net revenue function was as follows: (1) Where, ln = Natural log NR= Net revenue (tk/ha/year) Ci = Climatic variables (i = 1 to 4) t = Time period from 1975 to 2008 1 = Annual mean temperature (0C) 2 = Annual total rainfall (mm) 3 = lower flooding depth (0.30-0.91cm) 4 = higher flooding depth (0.91-1.83cm) taking the first derivative of equation (1) for finding marginal impact of related climatic variables. (2) The mean of temperature and rainfall (1975-2010) for each of eight districts were calculated first and then these mean were used in the aforesaid districts for estimating the log linear Ricardian net revenue function. Flooding depth data were collected from Soil Resource Development Institute (SRDI). Net revenue per hectare was calculated using the following equation NR=Σ PiQi – ΣPx X (3) Where NR is net revenue per hectare per year, Pi is the market price of crop i, Qi is output of crop i, Px is a vector of input prices and X is a vector of purchased inputs.

Source of Information: Annual Research Report 2011-2012, Agricultural Economics Division, BARI, Gazipur

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

1. Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council

Budget: 400000

Total Budget (Tk.) : 400000

Achievement/Findings:

The mean temperature was increased to 0.75⁰C with in 36 years i.e from 1975 to 2010. It witnessed that the rise of 1⁰C temperature requires 45 years. The rainfall was decreasing in Rabi and Kharif -1 season except Kharif- 2. But the yearly total rainfall was increased by 0.12 percent i.e. only 70 mm from 1975 to 2010. The inverse relationship was found between temperature and rainfall. The variability of rainfall was found irregular over the season as well as over the months. The highest marginal loss was estimated at taka 3009 million due to rise in temperature. The total loss of taka 7584 million was estimated where as per hectare loss was at taka 6482 due to four climatic variables in the study area.

Knowledge Management: Report/Proceedings