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Growth and Structural Stability in Area and Production of Potato in Bangladesh: a Time Series Analysis

M N Hasan
Department of Statistics, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur-1706 , Bangladesh

K S Uddin
Department of Statistics, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur-1706 , Bangladesh

M A Monayern Miah
Agricultural Economics Division,Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute, Gazipur, Bangladesh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The study measured the growth and structural stability in area, product ion and yield of potato as in Bangladesh based on secondary data during 1971/72 to 2008/09 using different statistical techniques. The area and production of potato increased satisfactorily. We have also not iced remarkable increased in yield of potato. More increment in area, production and yield of potato happened to meet the increasing demand of population in the country in adoption period com pared to inception period. Positive significant growth rates were found in area, production and yield of potato, but the growth rate in production in adoption period was greater than inception period . The structural stability analysis indicates that the differential slope coefficient was significant, indicated that some structural changes were occurred in adoption period due to high Yielding Variety (HYV) (BARI Alu-8 (Cardinal), BARI Alu-7 (Diamant), BARI Alu-6 (Multa) BARI Alu-5 and (Patrones) etc.) of potato. All of the evidences implied that the introduction of HYV potato and other technological development were responsible for increasing area, production and yield of potato in the country.

Keywords: Inception period, Adoption period, Growth rate, Instability and Structural stability

Location: Department of Statistics, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University

Start Date: 01-03-2008

End Date: 30-10-2008

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Commodity: Potato

Objectives:

To measure the change and instability in area, production and yield of potato in Bangladesh.
To measure the structural stability in area, production and yield or potato.
To derive the policy implications from the above objectives.

Methodology:

Time series data on area, production and yields of potato for 38 years from 1971/72 to 2008/09 were collected from different issues of BBS (Statistical Year Book of Bangladesh). The whole study period was divided into two periods' v iz., inception period (introduction of HY V) from 1971/72 to 1989/90 and adoption period (adoption of HYV in farmers field) from 1990/91 to 2008/09 to com pare in area, production and yield between the two periods. The total period has been divided into two periods considering the inception time of introducing high yielding variety of potato released by Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI). In order to examine the nature of change, instability, structural stability and degree of relationship in area, production and yield of potato in Bangladesh, various statistical measures such as mean, correlation co-efficient, co-efficient of variation and structural stabil?ity were worked out.

Source of Information: Ann. Bangladesh Agric. (2009) 13 ( 1 & 2) : 121-129

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

1. Government

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

The overall trend of potato production i n Bangladesh is quite satisfactory. The average area and production of potato is more than 2 times in adoption period compared to incept ion period. Examination or correlation and regression analysis also shows that production of potato increase more than 15 times i n the whole period and adoption period, with the unit increase in area. Growth rate in product ion or potato is greater than the growth rate in area. The growth in yield is significantly positive but it is less than growth in area and production. In the structural stability analysis, differential slope coefficient is significant and implied that there was a structural change in area, production, and yield occurred in the adopt ion period due to the introduction of HYY and technological development of potato in Bangladesh.

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