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Three Decades Growth Scenario and Supply Response of Rice in Bangladesh

M.M.R. Sarker
Agricultural Economics Division, Bangladesh Rice Research Institute Gazipur-1701, Bangladesh

B.A.A. Mustafi
Agricultural Economics Division Bangladesh Rice Research Institute Gazipur-1701, Bangladesh

M.A.B. Siddique
Agricultural Economics Division Bangladesh Rice Research Institute Gazipur-1701, Bangladesh

M.Z. Hossain
Department of Agricultur al Statistics, Bangladesh Agricultural Institute, Sher-e-Bangia Nagar, Dhaka-1207

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The purpose of the this study is to examine the growth performance and acreages response of rice production in different decades of Bangladesh for the period 1970-71 to 1999-2000 using time series data. The linear and exponential functional form revealed that production of rice recorded positive growth rates during the study period. The exponential growth rate of eight decade was the highest. Technological change led by varietal improvement In Bangladesh has significantly contributed to the growth of rice production during the last two decades. The study found the acreage under rice production influenced by lagged price of rice, lagged rice area, lagged rice yield, lagged irrigated rice area and other economic factors. But only the lagged price of rice was found to have significant effect.

Keywords: Growth scenario, Supply response, Adjustment, Elasticity

Location: Agricultural Economics Division, BRRI

Start Date: 00-00-1970

End Date: 00-00-2000

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Commodity: Rice

Objectives:

(1) to determine the growth rate of rice production and per capita rice production (2) to estimate the acreage response of rice to price changes and (3) to analyze supply response of rice production during three sub-periods (1970-71 to 1979-80, 1980-81 to 1989-90 and 1990-91 to 1997-98).

Methodology:

This study used secondary data on population, yield, production and area coverage over a period of three decades. Secondary data were collected from the Department of Agricultural Marketing (DAM), Bangladesh Bureaus of Statistics (BBS) and Food Planning Monitoring Unit. To estimate the growth rate of per capita rice production and total rice production of the country, the following linear and exponential models were fitted to the data. To determine the supply response of rice over the years 1970-71 to 1997-98, the following Model has been fitted to the data for the entire period. The shot run price elasticities of supply is defined as the mean price dividing by mean acreage then multiplying by regression coefficient of lagged price and adjustment coefficient. The long run elasticities is defined as the period of time when there was no more adjustment problems. The long run price elasticities of supply was obtained simply by dividing the short run price elasticity of supply by adjustment coefficient.

Source of Information: Bangladesh J. Agril. Sci. 29(1): 151-158, January, 2002

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

1. Government

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

The results of the empirical findings indicated that the acreage under rice was influenced mainly by lagged acreage, farm harvests price, lagged yield and lagged rice irrigated area. The price component played a more leading and significant role than the other three components. Appropriate policies will, therefore, need to focus on (a) favorable pricing condition (b) developing better irrigation system, and (c) developing suitable technologies in rice like varietal improvement, disease control measures, etc.

Knowledge Management: Journal