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The Impact of Climatic Changes on Crop Production

M.A. Hossain, ,
Department of Irrigation and Water Management, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh

S.M. Shirazi
Farming Systems and Environmental Studies, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh

M.S.U. Talukder,
Department of Irrigation and Water Management, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh

M.A. Hye
Department of Mathematics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh

A.K. Gosh
Department of Mathematics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

This study was carried out at Mymensingh to estimate the radiation, energy, and hydrological balance to assess the climatic changes affecting crop production of \he study area. The major climatic parameters, namely, rainfall, temperature, humidity, wind speed and sun shine hour were collected from 1975 to 1995 and were analyzed. The mean annual rainfall was 2387.20 mm. May to September were the highest rainfall months when the rainfall was more than 300 mm in over 63.80% of the years and was always more than 50 mm while May to June could be useful for kharif (April to September) sowing, but the harvest may have to be postponed up to October. It appears that rainfall can be relayed upon during June and water resources can be brought into consideration to share the excess water for agricultural use in drought months. Efforts should be made to conserve for rabi period as most of the months indicated drought by soil conservation. The results further indicate that net radiation generally decreased during monsoon reaching its minimum in December and then gradually increased again with the onset of summer, finally reaching its peak in May. Latent heat flux ranged from a minimum of 213.52 ly/day in July to a maximum of 387.83 ly/day in March.

Keywords: Climate, Impact, Crop production, Energy and Hydrological balance

Location: Mymensingh

Start Date: 23-01-1975

End Date: 21-12-1995

Program Area:

Commodity:

Objectives:

To determine the radiation and energy balance and to assess the climatic changes affecting crop production of the study area.

Methodology:

The average raifall and its variability in each month were computed considering the data of the 21 years (1975 to 1995). At first mean and standard deviation were calculated from these data and the percentage co-efficient of variation were computed by the following formula C.V. (%)= S.D./ X x 100 Where, C.V. =Co-efficient of variation S.D. =Standard deviation, X= Mean. The rainfall if any received during a month was classified. For estimating potential evapotranspiration equation is given below PET = Ètp/100 The Where, PET= Potential evapotranspiration t = Temperature in °F and p = Monthly percent of day time hours Growing degree-days (GOD) for Mymensingh region was calculated using the formula GOD= (T-T_t) x N Where, T is the mean air temperature, °C, T_t is the average minimum threshold germination temperature, °C and N is the number of days in respective months. T_t was taken to be 5°C.

Source of Information: Bar.gladesh J. Agril. Sci. 28(1 ): 115-124, January, 2001

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

Maximum rainfall occurred in July and minimum in January at Mymensingh region which are 487 mm and 93 mm, respectively. The variability of rainfall as measured by the percent coefficient of variation for different months varied from 38.50 to 176.00 at this region. For mean monthly rainfall the highest C.V. was observed in November (176%) and the lowest (38.50%) in July. The average annual rainfall was 2387.20 mm. The frequency distributions of months according to category of rainfall received during the 21 years period During the 21 years period of study there was rainfall in only 9 of January and December, 10 of November, 13 of February, 16 of March and all the 21 April, May, June, July, August, September and October months. Thus the probability of rainfall during the different months was 0.43 for January and December, 0.48 for November,0.62 for February, 0.76 for march and 1.0 for April to October months It appears from the above results that irrigation was necessary in order to grow crops during these periods because of non-availability of sufficient amount of rainwater and high atmospheric evaporative demand by the crops. At the rest of the period beginning from May to the middle of the October, precipitation was much higher than ETp. ETp in this period varied from 3.68 to 5.98 mm/day, whereas, precipitation varied from 6.29 to 15.71 mm/day. The results showed that an abundant supply of precipitable water during this period might cause sudden flood which in turn might damage crops. This is in fact called for immediate withdrawal of water and control of water level to a certain height for successful crop production

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