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Impacts of Temperature and Carbon Dioxide on Rice Yield in Bangladesh

J K Basak
Assistant Professor
Department of Environmental Science and Hazard Studies, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Noakhali-3814

R A M Titumir
Associate Professor
Department of Development Studies, University of Dhaka, Bangladesh

J K Biswas
Director General
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), Gazipur, Bangladesh

M Mohinuzzaman
Assistant Professor
Department of Environmental Science and Hazard Studies, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Noakhali-3814

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

This simulation study aimed to predict the effects of potential change of temperature and carbon dioxide on winter rice (Boro rice) production in Bangladesh. We assessed the effects of temperature and carbon dioxide on yield of Boro rice using DSSAT model for six major rice growing Agro- Ecological Zones (AEZs). The sensitivity analysis included variation of maximum and minimum temperature at 2⁰C and 4⁰C and different levels of CO₂ concentrations (50 ppm, 100 ppm and 200 ppm) above the value reported in 2005 of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (379 ppm). The model predicted that the change of maximum temperature drastically reduced rice yield at all selected locations. The average value of yield reductions (average percentage change of rice yield for 6 locations) of Boro rice were 6% and 16% for increasing maximum temperature at 2⁰C and 4⁰C respectively. Minimum temperature had also negative impacts on Boro rice yields that reduced yield by 4% for 2⁰C and 8% for 4⁰C. However, a slight increase in rice yield due to increase in CO₂ concentration could not overcome the negative effect of temperature. Such yield reductions under changing climatic conditions could significantly affect the rice production in Bangladesh in future.

Keywords: Bangladesh, Boro rice, climate change, DSSAT model, Rice yield

Location: Rajshahi(AEZ-11),Mymensingh (AEZ-9),Satkhira (AEZ-13), Barisal (AEZ-18),Comilla (AEZ-19) and Sylhet (AEZ-20)

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Risk Management in Agriculture

Non-commodity: Carbon sequestration, Temperature

Objectives:

To asses effects of climate change mainly temperature and carbon dioxide on Boro rice yield under different climate scenarios.

Methodology:

This simulation study aimed to predict the effects of potential change of temperature and carbon dioxide on winter rice (Boro rice) production in Bangladesh. We assessed the effects of temperature and carbon dioxide on yield of Boro rice using DSSAT model for six major rice growing Agro- Ecological Zones (AEZs). The sensitivity analysis included variation of maximum and minimum temperature at 2⁰C and 4⁰C and different levels of CO₂ concentrations (50 ppm, 100 ppm and 200 ppm) above the value reported in 2005 of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (379 ppm).The Boro rice variety BR3 has been selected in the present study because genetic coefficients for this variety are available in the DSSAT modeling system. Weather data including daily average maximum and minimum temperature, daily rainfall,carbon dioxide were collected from Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD).

Source of Information: Bangladesh Rice J. 17(1&2): 15-25, 2013

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

The sensitivity analysis included variation of maximum and minimum temperature at 2⁰C and 4⁰C and different levels of CO₂ concentrations (50 ppm, 100 ppm and 200 ppm) above the value reported in 2005 of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (379 ppm). The model predicted that the change of maximum temperature drastically reduced rice yield at all selected locations. The average value of yield reductions (average percentage change of rice yield for 6 locations) of Boro rice were 6% and 16% for increasing maximum temperature at 2⁰C and 4⁰C respectively. Minimum temperature had also negative impacts on Boro rice yields that reduced yield by 4% for 2⁰C and 8% for 4⁰C. However, a slight increase in rice yield due to increase in CO₂ concentration could not overcome the negative effect of temperature. Such yield reductions under changing climatic conditions could significantly affect the rice production in Bangladesh in future.

Knowledge Management: Journal