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Climate Change Model Predicts 33% Rice Yield Decrease in 2100 in Bangladesh

Mohammed R. Karim
Research Fellow
Crop Physiology Division, BINA, Mymensingh

Mamoru Ishikawa, Motoyoshi Ikeda
Graduate School of Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, Sappro, Japan

Dr. Md. Tariqul Islam
Principal Scientific Officer and Head
Crop Physiology Division, Bangladesh Institute of Nuclear Agriculture, BAU Campus, Mymensingh-2202, Bangladesh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

In Bangladesh, projected climate change is expected to increase food demands by more frequent and intense droughts and increasing temperatures. Few investigations have studied the impact of climate variability on future rice production. Previous investigations mainly checked the sensitivity of higher air temperature and higher atmospheric carbon dioxide on rice yields. Whereas in this study, we checked the combined effects of major climatic parameters on rice. The effects of climate change on yield of a popular winter rice cultivar in Bangladesh were assessed using the biophysical simulation model ORYZA2000. This model was first validated for 2000-2008 using field experimental data from Bangladesh, with a careful test of climate data on daily basis for station-wise and reanalysis datasets. The model performance was satisfactory enough to represent crop productions in nine major rice-growing districts. Then, simulation experiments were carried out for 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. Results show 33% reduction of average rice yields for 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 for three locations. Projected rainfall pattern and distribution will also have a negative impact on the yields by increasing water demands by 14% in the future. The model also showed that later transplanting will have less damage under the projected climate.

Keywords: Climate, Rice, Temperature, Rainfall, Yield

Location: BINA, Mymensingh

Start Date: 01-01-2010

End Date:

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Non-commodity: Weather/Climate

Objectives:

The objective of the study was to assess the impact of climate variability on future rice production in Bangladesh.

Methodology:

Data on soil characteristics, such as texture, number of soil layers and depth of each layer, organic matter (in percent), percolation rate (in millimeters per day), groundwater table depth (in centimeters), etc., were collected from the Soil Resources Development Institute, Bangladesh. Recommended agronomic practices for the rice cultivar were followed for all the model simulations and also for the field trial (BRRI 2007). Farm-level data on rice yield (in tons per hectare) were collected from the publications of Bangladesh Rice Research Institute during the time span 2000-2001 to 2007-2008. Nine major rice-growing districts, representing four regions of Bangladesh, were selected for the simulation of potential rice yields during 2000-2008 by using the hind-casted climate data. Reanalyzed data were used only for six available districts for the same time span. Depending on projection data availability, three districts, named as Rangpur, Faridpur, and Barisal, were selected for future yield simulation. Climate parameters contained mean values of maximum and minimum surface air temperatures (in degrees Celsius), total rainfall (in millimeters), radiation (sunshine hours or kilo-joules per square meter per day), mean wind speed (in meters per second), and maximum and minimum humidity (in percent; for getting vapor pressure), all on a daily basis. ORYZA2000, an advanced, dynamic ecophysiological rice growth simulation model was used only within the day. Gross photosynthesis of individual leaves is calculated by a negative exponential function characterized by the initial slope and an asymptote. The maximum rate of carbon dioxide assimilation of a leaf is calculated from the N content of the leaves and average day time temperature. The daily net assimilation is obtained by subtraction of growth and maintenance respiration from the daily gross assimilation. Calibration and evaluation of the model was done.

Source of Information: Agron. Sustain. Dev. (2012) 32:821–830 DOI 10.1007/s13593-012-0096-7 Published online: 12 June 2012 INRA and Springer-Verlag, France 2012

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

Among all the planting dates, February 7 is recommended as the best planting time for future causing less yield damage. However, still relatively to the present time practice of January 18, the yields of the studied rice cultivar will be hampered by 33%, combining the periods 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. More water would be demanded by 14 %, for the future time spells with 18 January plantation and alternate wetting and drying practice. Because of the water scarcity, Faridpur will be affected more with the current planting practice. Other consequences of climate change would be the shorter growing season for the future days. A little increase in winter temperatures together with less rainfall would cause severe grain sterility in rice. The use of a drought-resistant rice variety and conservation of water are important for future days. In the districts where early plantation is currently practiced, planting date shifting would be a simple but powerful strategy to have some positive consequences on drastic effects of climate change. Reliable prediction of crop production in the future will depend on a clearer understanding of the relationship between rice and climate.

Knowledge Management: Journal, Online Circulation