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A Multiple Regression Model for the Prediction of Dry Season Moisture Contents of the Coastal Saline Rice Soils of Bangladesh

M K Mondal
Senior Agricultural Engineer
Irrigation and Water Management Division, Bangladesh Rice Research Institute(BRRI), Gazipur

S I Bhuiyan
Former Water Resources Specialist, Soil and Water Sciences Division, International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Los Banos, Philippines

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

Experiments were conducted at Barodanga and Mirzapur villages under Dumuria upazila of Khulna district to document dynamics of soil moisture in the dry season of the coastal rice soils and develop a model for its prediction. The soil texture was silty clay loam to silty loam and soil moisture contents of the coastal saline rice soils in the dry season remained close to field capacity level most of the time except in the top layer. Multiple linear and non-linear regression models were developed to predict soil moisture contents in the dry season by using rainfall, evaporation and groundwater depth as independent variables. Soil moisture prediction was improved when non-linear model was employed in place of its linear form. Therefore, the non- linear model may be used to predict soil moisture contents of the coastal rice soils and may be used for planning non-rice crop cultivation to improve land productivity of the coastal regions of Bangladesh.

Keywords: Coastal regions, Salinity, Groundwater

Location: Khulna

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Risk Management in Agriculture

Commodity: Rice

Objectives:

In the present study a model was developed for the prediction of dry season moisture contents of the coastal rice soils to facilitate dry season crop production processes in the coastal regions of Bangladesh.

Methodology:

Southwest region of Bangladesh is the most problematic region as far as soil and water salinity are concerned. Most rice lands in this area are classified as moderately saline (ECe = 4-8dS m^-1) and saline (ECe = 8-16 dSm^-1. The villages Barodanga and Mirzapur, both in Dumuria upazila of Khulna district were selected to represent the saline and moderately saline soil categories. Both sites are located at an altitude of 4 m above mean sea level. Evaporation, rainfall and groundwater level mainly govern the dynamics of soil moisture in coastal rice soils. Groundwater remains close to the surface in the dry season contributing to soil moisture through capillary rise. To predict soil moisture pattern of the coastal ricelands, the following functional relation is proposed: SMC_t = f(TEV_t. TRF_t, WTD_t) where, SMC_t is soil moisture contents by weight at time t ( per cent), TEV_tis total evaporation until time t (mm), TRF_t is total rainfall until time t (mm) and WTD_t groundwater depth at time t (crn).

Source of Information: Journal of the Institution of Engineers, Bangladesh Agricultural Engineering Division, Vol. 31/AE, No.1, Dee, 2004

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

Multiple linear and non-linear regression models were developed to predict dry season moisture contents (SMC) of fallow lands in coastal rice soils. The independent variables of the models were total rainfall (TRF) , total evaporation (TEV), and water table depth (WTD). The non-linear model provided better soil moisture prediction than the linear one. As the soil moisture is the key factor for crop cultivation in the dry season, the model could provide planning guidelines to timely establishment of dry season crops in the fragile coastal environments and could also provide information on irrigation and drainage needs of non-rice crops for optimum yields.

Knowledge Management: Journal