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Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Monsoon Flooding and Salinity Intrusion

Md. Mobassarul Hasan*
Junior Specialist
Institute of Water Modelling, Dhaka--1206, Bangladesh,

Zahirul Haque Khan
Principal Specialist
CPE Division, Institute of Water Modelling, Dhaka-1206, Bangladesh,

Nasreen Mohal
Senior Specialist
Institute of Water Modelling, Dhaka-1206, Bangladesh,

MD. Upal Mahamud
Junior Engineer
Institute of Water Modelling, Dhaka-1206, Bangladesh,

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The study estimates that inundated area will be increased by 12 to 16 percent in the Ganges and Jamuna basin for an average or normal flood event (2005 flood event) due to climate change. Increase of flood level and its duration are key factors to characterize the impact of flood due to climate change. It is seen that peak flood level is increased by about 37cm in a moderate flood event (2004 flood event) and in a normal flood event (2005 flood event) the increase is 27cm in the Jamuna river. Similar impacts are also seen in the Ganges river. It is known that F0 and F1 land are suitable for T aman cropping. From the model results it is seen that the decrease of F0 and F1 land is quite large in the Jamuna and the Ganges basin, which is in the range of 44% and 43% respectively due to climate change in the year 2040, the coastal districts also shows similar decrease of F0 land. The study shows that salinity will intrude more landward specially during dry season due to sea level rise. About an additional area of 327,700 ha would become high saline water zone (>5 ppt) during dry season due to 59 cm sea level rise. Three zones were recognized based on dry season salinity of river in the Sundarbans. These are oligohaline (0-5 ppt), mesohaline (5-18 ppt) and polyhaline (>18ppt). Due to sea level rise distribution of these zones will be changed. Oligohaline will be changed to mesohaline and mesohaline will be changed to polyhaline and as a result growth and productivity of mangrove will be affected.

Keywords: Climate change, Sea level rise, Mathematical modelling, Impact assessment, Land type, T-Aman, Salinity intrusion

Location:

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Non-commodity: Flood

Objectives:

The study was carried out to determine the impact assessment of climate change on monsoon flooding and salinity intrusion

Methodology:

STUDY AREA: The study area covers seven districts of Bangladesh namely Sirajganj, Gaibandha, Pabna Faridpur, Sunamganj, Satkhira and Barisal. The impact of climate change may be different in Jamuna, Ganges and Meghna basins and in the coastal area due to different flooding pattern in these basins. Considering the different nature of flood problems in the different region of Bangladesh seven districts have been selected to examine the change of flood regime and land type due to climate change. Faridpur, Gaibandha and Sirajganj represent Brahmmaputra basin and Pabna is in Ganges basin. Satkhira and Barisal represent the coastal area that experience tidal and monsoon flooding. Sunamganj is characterised by haors and lies in the Meghna basin where flash flood is dominant.

SCENARIO SELECTION: In the last six years after publication of the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (TAR), significant progress has been made in understanding the past and recent climate change process and in projecting future changes. The key variables affected by climate change and their quantification according to 4^th IPCC findings and recent studies are discussed below.

Sea Level Rise The 4^th IPCC (2007) prediction of the global sea level rise for the IS92a scenario is shown in the Figure 2. From this prediction it has found that the sea level will rise up to 59 cm in the year 2100 and in the year 2040 it will be 17cm.

Source of Information: 2nd International Conference on Water & Flood Management (ICWFM-2009), BUET, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

Climate change and sea level rise will continue to affect coastal area of Bangladesh through permanent inundation, drainage congestion in the polders and increased salinity intrusion of low-lying areas and the upper part of Bangladesh through flooding. This will impact severely on food security and livelihood. If proper remedial measures are not taken immediately the livelihood and food security will be in deep trouble in the near future.The Impact assessment due to the sea level rise and climate change on monsoon flooding and salinity intrusion has been made on the basis of existing literature and models. But still there remain some uncertainties such as limitations of models, the lack of full understanding of the climatic parameters and their variation, etc. The assessment results need to be updated continuously and hence more in-depth research efforts should be put into this.

Knowledge Management: Report/Proceedings