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Estimation of the Parameters Needed for Integrated and Effective Pfds Planning in Bangladesh

Dr. M. Asaduzzaman
Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS)E-17, Agargaon, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar Dhaka-1207

Dr.Mohammad Yunus
Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS)E-17, Agargaon, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar Dhaka-1207

Dr.Quazi Shahabuddin
Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS)E-17, Agargaon, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar Dhaka-1207

Dr.Mustafa K. Mujeri
Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS)E-17, Agargaon, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar Dhaka-1207

Dr.Nazneen Ahmed
Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS)E-17, Agargaon, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar Dhaka-1207

Dr.Monzur Hossain
Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS)E-17, Agargaon, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar Dhaka-1207

Siban Shahana
Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS)E-17, Agargaon, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar Dhaka-1207

Morshed Alam
Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS)E-17, Agargaon, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar Dhaka-1207

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

An unresolved paradox in the Bangladesh food economy is the mismatch between estimated demand for and supply of food grains based on official statistics. In this context the present study strives to (i) streamline the supply-side as well as the demand side estimates and analyze the food gap in Bangladesh; (ii) assist the policy makers in early decision making for domestic and international procurement of food grain; and (iii) assist the government in determining the PFDS size and desirable stock of food grains over the months of a year for operating an integrated and effective PFDS. The present study reveals that the country was in deficit in rice in recent years, which varies between -2.05 MMT in 2008 and decreased to -0.13 MMT in 2010. These estimates roughly correspond to the historical facts of imports of rice from the rest of the world. In contrast, the country is in deficit of wheat by 2 MMT per year. It may be noted that the private sector and the government together imported 2.4 MMT, 3.4 MMT, and 3.8 MMT of wheat during FY 09–FY 11.

Keywords: Estimation, Effective PFDS

Location:

Start Date: 00-00-1990

End Date: 00-00-2010

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Non-commodity: Market analysis

Objectives:

The study strives to

(i) streamline the supply-side as well as the demand side estimates and analyze the food gap in Bangladesh;

(ii) assist the policy makers in early decision making for domestic and international procurement of food grain;

(iii) assist the government in determining the PFDS size and desirable stock of food grains over the months of a year for operating an integrated and effective PFDS.

Methodology:

The cohort component method was used for projecting the population. PFDS distribution is calculated based on a multi-equation disaggregated model for food sector using monthly data for the 1990-90 to 2009-10 periods. The model results are supplemented by projections using relevant information, especially for those variables which are treated exogenously in the model.

Source of Information: Biennial Report-2011-2012, BIDS

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

The study gave PFDS distribution, stock and procurement needs for the next three years, 2012-13, 2013-14 and 2014-15 based on a multi-equation disaggregated model for food sector using monthly data for the 1990-90 to 2009-10 periods. The model results were supplemented by projections using relevant information, especially for those variables which were treated exogenously in the model.The combined results provided estimates for distribution needs by major channels (in some cases such as OMS by months), at 2.08, 2.22, and 2.34 MMT of food grains for FY13-FY15, Of these amounts, 1.33-1.47 MMT would be needed in rice and the rest would be in wheat. In order to implement these distribution targets, public stocks needs would be 1.92, 1.96, and 2.01 MMT respectively. These targets for public stocks would be achieved through domestic procurement of 1.13-1.15 MMTS of mainly rice. The rest would be achieved through public and private imports.

Knowledge Management: Report/Proceedings