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Research Detail

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M. A. Rouf
Department of Environmental Science, Jahangirnagar University, Savar, Dhaka, Bangladesh

M. K. Uddin
Department of Environmental Science, Jahangirnagar University, Savar, Dhaka, Bangladesh

S. K. Debsarma
SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), Agargaon, Dhaka-1207, Bangladesh

M. Mizanur Rahman
SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), Agargaon, Dhaka-1207, Bangladesh

The past, present and future climatic pattern (temperature and rainfall) of northwestern and southwestern part of Bangladesh was assessed based on the High Resolution Atmospheric-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) using the present rainfall and temperature data of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). Climatology in Bangladesh is derived from 20 km mesh MRI-AGCM (Atmospheric General Circulation Model) calibrated with reference to the observed data for the period of 1979-2006. Then, projections for rainfall and temperature are made for near future (2015-2034) and future (2075-99). Two disaster prone areas (i) northwestern part (Shapahar & Porsha) and (ii) southwestern part (Kalapara & Amtoli) were selected as the study areas. AOGCM model was run for Bangladesh and also for study areas separately. The present mean temperature for Bangladesh was found to rise from the past, rises slightly, but in near future and future the rate of mean temperature rise is projected to be much more than the present rate (increase up to 4.34 °C/100 years), the rate is projected to be 5.39 °C/100 years in case of Shapahar and Porsha a while 4.37 °C/100 years in case of Kalapara and Amtoli. The present, near future and future average rainfall of Bangladesh appeared to fluctuate, but have shown a decreasing trend (decreases up to 1.96 mm/100 years). The mean average rainfall of Shapahar and Porsha presently decreases very slowly (not significant), but in near future and future will decrease slowly (0.66mm/100 years). In case of Kalapara, the average rainfall appears to decrease presently, near future and future will decrease up to 3.62 mm/100 years. The average rainfall of Amtoli appears to decrease @ 1.92mm/100 years but in near future appears to increase slightly and again decrease @ 3.27mm/100years in future.

  Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM), Climatology, Simulation, Temperature, Rainfall
  Plant Pathology, Sher-e-Bangla Agricultural University, Dhaka-1207, Bangladesh
  
  
  Resource Development and Management
  Weather/Climate, Adoption of technology

To asses the past, present and future climatic pattern (temperature and rainfall) of northwestern and southwestern part of Bangladesh based on the High Resolution Atmospheric-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) using the present rainfall and temperature data of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD).

Observational data of Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) has been utilized for validation of MRI-AOGCM generated rainfall and temperature. The BMD observation network density is low, in some cases observation sites are located about 25 km apart, whereas these are about 145 km apart in some other areas. A number of grids are found which do not contain any observation site when the whole Bangladesh is gridded at 20 km by 20 km in the model resolution. In this procedure, observed data at a particular site is considered as being the representative for that location. Grid value of the model data is compared with the observed data representing that grid. If more than one observation site exist within a grid, the average value of all the observational sites is considered as representative value for that grid. Daily rain-gauge rainfall and temperature data collected by BMD are processed to obtain monthly, seasonal and annual values. The model simulated rainfall and temperature data are extracted through GrADS for 28 sites of BMD (point value) and then are converted into monthly, seasonal and annual values which are then averaged to obtain country average. The regression equation, slopes and constants are assigned from model and observed rainfall for the base line period. Estimated rainfall is obtained from model generated scenarios with the help of slopes and constants. This estimated rainfall is useful for validation of MRI-AOGCM in Bangladesh. Similarly, calibration and validation is completed for mean temperature in Bangladesh. Two disaster prone areas, one in north-western part and another one in south-western part of Bangladesh have been selected for the present study. Shapahar and Porsha are under Noagaon district (northwestern part); Kalapara and Amtoli are under Patuakhali and Barguna districts, respectively (southwestern part). A reconnaissance field visit had been conducted to know the impact of climate change on the livelihood of small scale farmer. To know the near future and future climatology of those study area, we ran the present data in AOGCM model with BMD`s present data.

  The Agriculturists 9(1&2): 143-154(2011) ISSN-1729-5211, A Scientific Journal of Krishi Foundation
  http://banglajol.info/index.php/AGRIC/article/view/9489/7034
Funding Source:
  

The mean temperature for Bangladesh rises slightly, but during near future and future the mean temperature rises is expected to be much more than the present (increases up to 4.34 °C/100 years). The present, near future and future average rainfalls of Bangladesh was observed to fluctuate, but have shown a decreasing trend (decreases up to 1.96mm/100 years). The observation made are based on the data recorded in the Bangladesh Meteorological Department from two areas in northwestern part (Shapahar and Porsha) and two areas in the southwestern part (Kalapara and Amtoli) of Bangladesh. Further studies are needed to know the future climatological situations of other disaster prone areas of Bangladesh.

  Journal
  

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