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Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Bangladesh

MA Salam
SSO
Agricultural Economics Division, BRRI, Gazipur

MAB Siddique
PSO
Head ,Agricultural Economics Division, BRRI,Gazipur

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

Agricultural production is closely linked with the climatic factors like temperature, rainfall, emission of atmospheric carbon dioxide, as well as solar radiations etc. Bangladesh is strongly recognized as the most vulnerable country to climate change because of its geographic location; flat and low-lying topography; dense population; high poverty; reliance of livelihoods on climate sensitive sectors; and inefficient institutional and poor infrastructure. Increasing temperatures, thermal expansion of the Bay of Bengal and melting of the glaciers in the Himalayas all have great impacts for Bangladesh. The diverse climatic phenomena like cyclone, drought, changing rainfall patterns and temperature; caused significant losses in food grain production in every year. Under such a condition, it is imperative to evaluate the supply and demand situation of rice, which is really important for future concern of national policy of Bangladesh. The analysis depicts that production of all three season such as Aus, Aman and Boro season is in upward trend under all climate scenarios. After certain period, Aus rice production will go into declining as Aus rice area rapidly shift to modern Boro rice and other non-rice crops (Maize and Tobacco). Planted area of local varieties of these seasons are shrinking and replaced by high yielding varieties and eventually boost up the total rice production. In contrary, the bulk of rice production contributed to increase the stock gradually. Bangladesh is coping up with the various climatic condition, and undertaken a number of mitigation strategic policy for sustainability of rice sector. As example some stress tolerant rice varieties (submerged, salt, cold, hail storm and heat tolerant) have by this time been developed and made remarkable effort to disseminate those varieties for sustainable rice production in Bangladesh. Recently it has strongly been focused on disease and pest tolerant varieties which are happening due to climate change.

Keywords: Impact assessment, Climate change, Supply and demand of rice

Location: Ten Agricultural Regions of bangladesh

Start Date: 01-07-2013

End Date: 30-06-2014

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Non-commodity: Weather/Climate

Objectives:

To evaluate the supply and demand situation of rice in order help policy maker in making future policy of Bangladesh

Methodology:

Model: In order to provide valuable policy information related to adaptation strategies of climate change, a rice supply and demand model has been developed to understand the future situation of rice under climate change in Bangladesh. The basic structure of the simulation model was adopted from Furuya & Meyer (2008), and Furuya et al. (2010). Supply and demand model for rice in Bangladesh consists of sixteen structural equations and nine identities, including temperature, rainfall and solar radiation as climatic variables. The model can be specified as follows. Planted area but in case of Bangladesh planted area and harvested area is same, so harvested area of three different seasons applied in the model, yield and production of different rice varieties (modern and local) of different seasons (Aus, Aman and Boro) can be analyzed with this model. The harvested’ area (used instead of ‘planted’ area in this model) functions are specified based on the Nerlovian adaptive expectation (Nerlove, 1958) model where the exogenous variables are temperature, rainfall and solar-radiation. If the planted area function responds to the expected price and the yield does not respond to the expected price, the explanatory variables of the planted area function will be planted area, price, and exogenous variable in the previous year. At the same time, the yield function is independent from the expectation model because the yield does not respond to the price.

Source of Information: Proceedings of the BRRI Annual Internal Review for 2013-14

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

1.

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

The analysis depicts that production of all three season such as Aus, Aman and Boro season is in upward trend under all climate scenarios. After certain period, Aus rice production will go into declining as Aus rice area rapidly shift to modern Boro rice and other non-rice crops (Maize and Tobacco). Planted area of local varieties of these seasons are shrinking and replaced by high yielding varieties and eventually boost up the total rice production. In contrary, the bulk of rice production contributed to increase the stock gradually. Bangladesh is coping up with the various climatic condition, and undertaken a number of mitigation strategic policy for sustainability of rice sector. As example some stress tolerant rice varieties (submerged, salt, cold, hail storm and heat tolerant) have by this time been developed and made remarkable effort to disseminate those varieties for sustainable rice production in Bangladesh. Recently it has strongly been focused on disease and pest tolerant varieties which are happening due to climate change.

Knowledge Management: Report/Proceedings