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Projection of Irrigation Cost Over Next 10 Years by Using Arima Model

GW Sarker
PSO
Agricultural Economics Division, BRRI, Gazipur

MA Islam
SSO
Agricultural Economics Division, BRRI, Gazipur

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

Irrigation cost is increasing year by year due to increasing costs of fuel, electricity and labor, and pumping from deeper water table. However, there is inadequate information about projected irrigation cost over the years. With this view in mind present study was considered to predict raising irrigation costs for crop production. Auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are used to predict irrigation cost trend over next 10 years using time-series data from 1990 to 2014 collected from various secondary sources:The projected irrigation cost in the year 2024 would be higher 20% and 19% for STW and DTW, respectively than present irrigation costs. Therefore, steps should be taken to improve on farm water management practices (minimize water distribution loss and practice alternate wetting and drying methods etc.). To ensure a regular water supply to crops, it requires an improve irrigation plan (i.e., when to irrigate and how much to apply water). Thus, irrigation cost could be minimized. Agricultural extension workers could assist in this regard. In general, policies should be taken to promote water management training to farmers for better understanding of on farm water management

Keywords: Irrigation cost, Boro rice, Forecasting

Location: Secondary data were used (Sources:Guesselquist,1992,IIMI,1995,Anon,2004-2009,Sarker,2009 and recent field survey)

Start Date: 01-07-2013

End Date: 30-06-2014

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Non-commodity: Cost of production

Objectives:

To forecast probable irrigation cost for rice cultivation in the year 2024 after ten years

Methodology:

Irrigation cost data from various secondary (Sources:Guesselquist,1992,IIMI,1995,Anon,2004-2009,Sarker,2009 and recent field survey) were used to forecast the irrigation cost of Boro rice cultivation in different irrigation machines using ARIMA model.

Source of Information: Proceedings of the BRRI Annual Internal Review for 2013-14

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

1. Government

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

Irrigation cost is increasing year by year due to increasing costs of fuel, electricity and labor, and pumping from deeper water table. The projected irrigation cost in the year 2024 would be higher 20% and 19% for STW and DTW, respectively than present irrigation costs. Therefore, steps should be taken to improve on farm water management practices (minimize water distribution loss and practice alternate wetting and drying methods etc.). To ensure a regular water supply to crops, it requires an improve irrigation plan (i.e., when to irrigate and how much to apply water). Thus, irrigation cost could be minimized. Agricultural extension workers could assist in this regard. In general, policies should be taken to promote water management training to farmers for better understanding of on farm water management.

Knowledge Management: Report/Proceedings