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Growth Estimation of Selected Major Crops in Bangladesh

Sarah Yasmin
Lecturer, Department of Agribusiness and Marketing, BAU, Mymensingh-2202,

Shamsul Alam
Member, General Economics Division, Planning Commission; Govt. of People's Republic of Bangladesh & Professor of Department of Agribusiness and Marketing, BAU, Mymensingh-2202,

M . M oniruzzama n
Associate Professor, Department of Agribusiness and Marketing, BAU, Mymensingh-2202.

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The keen interest of this research paper is to estimate the growth rates of area, production and yield of selected major crops viz., aus, aman, boro, jute and wheat in Bangladesh. The time series data have been used for this purpose. This study covers the time period of 1980/81 to 2009/10. The study was entirely based on secondary data. Growth rates of area, production and yield of major crops were estimated by fitting exponential trend function. Aus, aman, boro, jute and wheat are major crops grown in our country. It is observed that growth of area and production of aus has declined at the rate of 4.74 and 2.69 percent respectively which were statistically significant during the entire period (1980/81 to 2009/10). Increased growth rate of aman yield affected increased production significantly at the rate of 1.48 percent while area declining over the period and area and production of boro increase significantly at the rate of 4.67 and 6.43 percent respectively during the study period (1980/81- 2009/10). Growth rates of area and production of jute had declined significantly at the rate of 2.00 and 0.77 percent respectively over the whole period. But yield of jute showed significant positive growth at the rate of 1.23 percent during the whole period. Area of wheat grew at the rate of 0.93 percent which was statistically significant that helped obtaining increased production (1980/81 to 2005/06) but overall period it was negative and statistically insignificant. Area increase and yield increase helped increase production of crops of wheat, all boro and HYV boro. Analyzing and comparing the growth rates of area, production and yield of major crops may guide the risk averse farmers allowing judicious allocation of cultivated area which ultimately would increase the production and stabilize agricultural supply in Bangladesh. An appropriate price policy, supportive services and massive government program can bring about desired area allocation and consequently in the production of crops in Bangladesh. In short, findings from this research paper may be helpful for planners and policy makers in formulating strategies to improve the efficiency of agricultural sector which is backbone of the economy.

Keywords: Estimation, Growth rate,Area production and yield,Major crops

Location:

Start Date: 00-00-1980

End Date: 00-00-2010

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Non-commodity: Analysis and interpretations

Objectives:

To estimate the growth rates of area, production and yield of selected major crops

Methodology:

The main objective of this study is to estimate the growth rates of major crops in Bangladesh. For better understanding of the methodology used are discussed in each of the following aspects: selection of crops, selection of period of the study, selection of prices and empirical method used in relation to the estimation of growth rates of selected major crops are presented in this section : Selection of crops In this study three major categories of crops were selected. These are (a) Cereal crops: three seasonal varieties of rice (aus, aman and boro), wheat (b) Cash crop: jute. These crops have been selected on the basis of proportion of area allocation as well as production. The level of production determines the harvest prices of respective crops. Selection of period of the study The proposed study will cover the time period from 1980-81 up to 2009-10 which may be advancement in terms of information analysis. This period is chosen due to initial start of privatization as well as the rest of the period to capture the effects of a market enterprise economy and covering the period of intensified liberalized economy than any other time before . Selection of price In accordance with the selection of crops, appropriate prices were to be chosen. Price. has an allocate influence on resources and is more important for policy purposes. In fact, farmers take area allocation decisions with respect to the expected prices prevailing during the post harvest period. In the present study, harvest prices of selected crops have been taken for analysis. Harvest prices have been taken into consideration for the reason that wholesale and retail prices may not reflect what the farmers actually receive, because they are set at a considerably higher level than what the farmers get. Moreover, in case of Bangladesh rural farmers sell large portion of their products at immediate post harvest period prices . So harvest prices are the most relevant prices for the producer farmers. Growth estimation Growth rates in production, area and yield of selected major crops are widely estimated for examining the growth performance of the crop sector and evaluated government policies. If the growth rate is not constant but depends on time the compound model cannot describe the actual picture of the growth scenario. Therefore, before performing growth analysis it is necessary to identify the growth model that best fits the time series. Exponential model is appropriate when the annual growth rate is constant over time.

Source of Information: Bangladesh J. Agric. Econs. XXXIII, 1& 2 (2010) 133-147

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

It is observed that growth of area and production of aus has declined at the rate of 4.74 and 2.69 percent respectively which were statistically significant during the entire period (1980/81 to 2009/10). Increased growth rate of aman yield affected increased production significantly at the rate of 1.48 percent while area declining over the period and area and production of boro increase significantly at the rate of 4.67 and 6.43 percent respectively during the study period (1980/81- 2009/10). Growth rates of area and production of jute had declined significantly at the rate of 2.00 and 0.77 percent respectively over the whole period. But yield of jute showed significant positive growth at the rate of 1.23 percent during the whole period. Area of wheat grew at the rate of 0.93 percent which was statistically significant that helped obtaining increased production (1980/81 to 2005/06) but overall period it was negative and statistically insignificant. Area increase and yield increase helped increase production of crops of wheat, all boro and HYV boro.

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