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Prospects of Boro Rice Production in Bangladesh

Niaz Md. Farhat Rahman
Scientific Officer
Agricultural Statistics Division, BRRI, Gazipur

Dr. Md. Shahjahan Kabir
CSO
Agricultural Statistics Division, BRRI, Gazipur

Dr. Md. Ismail Hossain
PSO
Agricultural Statistics Division, BRRI, Gazipur

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The present study was undertaken to examine the rate of growth as well as forecasting and factor influencing variability of area and production of boro rice in different time periods of the country. Secondary data for the period of 1972-73 to 2011-12 were used for this study. The growth rates of total period were computed between four sub-periods. Area and production of boro showed insignificant positive growth during the period of 1972-73 to 1981-82. For all other time periods, the growth rates showed significant and positive growth during the study period. The area and production of boro rice during the period 1972-73 to 1981-82 shows the highest degree of instability which is significant at 1% level. For forecasting, linear, Logarithmic, Quadratic, Cubic, Compound and Inverse models have been fitted and projections have been made on the basis of the best fitted regression model. The cubic model was the best fitted model selected using model selection criteria. The projection of area and production indicated the vital potential of boro rice area and production in the time periods. Thus, policy makers, stake holders and beneficiaries (farmers) should take necessary steps to check the decline in area under boro rice without farther delay.

Keywords: Area, Boro rice, Growth model, Production and Projection.

Location: BRRI HQ, Gazipur

Start Date: 01-07-2013

End Date: 30-06-2014

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Non-commodity: Analysis and interpretations

Objectives:

To find the area and production growth of boro rice over the period 1972-73 to 2011-12 as well as four time periods, coefficient of variation and its projections. It is aimed at finding out whether the growth rates of area and production of boro rice differ significantly during the study time periods. Trend in area and production have also been examined.

Methodology:

Data Source: Secondary data are used for conducting the study. Data on area and production of boro rice for the period 1972-73 to 2011-12 are collect from several issues of Statistical Yearbook of Bangladesh. This period is divided into 4 sub-periods and each period had 10 years: i) Time period I consist the period of 1972-73 to 1981-82; (ii) Time period II comprises the period of 1982-83 to 1991-92; (iii) Time period III having the period of 1992-93 to 2001-02; and (iv) Time period IV contain the period of 2002-03 to 2011-12 and the total period 1972-73 to 2011-12. Growth model: For computing growth rates of area and production of boro rice exponential model will fitted. Measures of Instability: The measures of instability in time series data requires an explicate assumptions of what constitute the expectable and unacceptable components. The estimate of the magnitude of instability in the time series data on area and production has been attempt by computing the coefficient of variation around the trend (CV_t) was suggested by Cuddy and Della (1978) as a better measure of variability rather than the coefficient of variation around the mean. The coefficient of variation will also work out for area, production and yield to measure the variability but simple CV does not explain properly the trend component inherent in the time series data. Criteria Used for Selection of Model: Until the rules of model selection are strictly followed, the forecast generated with the assumed model may sound insipid or dry. In order to select the type of growth model of the best model fit for forecasting the data for a particular time series the latest available model selection criteria are R², RMSE, AIC, BIC, MAE, MSE and MAPPE (Gujarati, 2003).

Source of Information: Advances in Environmental Biology, 7(14) December 2013

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

1. Government

Budget: Fifty thousand only

Total Budget (Tk.) : Fifty thousand only

Achievement/Findings:

The overall trend of boro rice area and production in Bangladesh is quite satisfactory. The trend line for boro rice also gives the evidence on behalf of increasing tendency of area and production of boro rice. Growth rate in production of boro rice is greater than growth rate in area. Thus boro rice area and production in Bangladesh always bright to meet the increasing demand. This study also made the best effort to develop a short run forecasting of area and production of boro rice in Bangladesh. Our forecast showed an increasing pattern in area and production of boro rice. This pattern will continue if the government should put emphasis on adopting of high yielding boro rice varieties in boro seasons and take proper input subsidiary programme in order to achieve food security. The production uncertainty of boro rice could be minimized if production were forecasted well and necessary steps were taken against losses. Therefore, scientists should give more attention to develop sustainable variety in un-favorable weather to meet the increasing demand and this study can be useful guide to the stakeholders and beneficiaries for taking appropriate decision for encouraging the area and production of boro rice in the state.

Knowledge Management: Report/Proceedings