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An Application of Box-jenkins Method for Forecasting of Aus, Aman and Boro Rice Production in Bangladesh

Niaz Md. Farhat Rahman
Scientific Officer
Agricultural Statistics Division, BRRI, Gazipur-1701.

Dr. Md. Shahjahan Kabir
Director (Administration and Common Service)
Agricultural Statistics Division, BRRI, Gazipur-1701.

Dr. Md. Ismail Hossain
PSO and Head
Agricultural Statistics Division, BRRI, Gazipur-1701.

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

Due to increase in population, its accurate forecast is important for efficient planning of rice production and forecasting of rice production is a formidable challenge. In view of globalization, it is important to study the trend of rice production by employing sound statistical modeling techniques that will be beneficial to the planners in formulating suitable policies to face the challenges ahead. The objective of this study was to forecast the Aus, Aman and Boro rice production in Bangladesh by using the Box-Jenkins method. In this work we are interested to construct Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for yearly time series data of aus, aman and boro rice production in Bangladesh for the periods 1971-1972 to 2013-2014, which are taken from the “Year Book of Agricultural Statistics” is published by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Bangladesh. In this study the methodology first refers to use of ARIMA model as propounded by Box and Jenkins for forecasting of requirement and production of aus, aman and boro rice. Forecast of aus rice production showed a decreasing trend but aman and boro rice production showed an increasing trend.

Keywords: Rice, Box-Jenkins method, Non-stationary, ACF and PACF.

Location: BRRI HQ, Gazipur

Start Date: 01-07-2013

End Date: 30-06-2014

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Non-commodity: Forecasting

Objectives:

The objective of this study was to forecast the Aus, Aman and Boro rice production in Bangladesh by using the Box-Jenkins method.

Methodology:

Data Source: In this work we are interested to construct ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model for yearly time series data of rice production in Bangladesh for the periods 1971-1972 to 2013-2014, which are taken from the reliable publication “Year Book of Agricultural Statistics” is published by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Bangladesh.

Statistical Model: In this study the methodology first refers to use of ARIMA model as propounded by Box and Jenkins for forecasting of requirement and production of aus rice. The Box and Jenkins methodology refers to the set of procedures for identifying, fitting, and checking models with time series data.

Source of Information: BRRI Annual Report 2013-14, 175-177, BRRI, Gazipur.

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

1. Government

Budget: Fifty thousand only

Total Budget (Tk.) : Fifty thousand only

Achievement/Findings:

Projections have been made for the aus, aman and boro rice production on the basis of their actual performance during 1971-72 to 2013-14. Since the time series model building is an iterative process, until and unless the forecast value found by maintain the proper statistical rigor it is iterated from the identification process. The same things followed here and used the models those strictly avail the criteria for having better forecast. Forecast of aus rice production showed a decreasing trend but aman and boro rice production showed an increasing trend.

Knowledge Management: Report/Proceedings