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Ex-ante Impact Analysis of Shatabdi Variety of Wheat

Md. Rezaul Karim
Agricultural Economics Division, BARI, Gazipur.

M. A. Baset
Agricultural Economics Division, BARI, Gazipur.

Q. Mesbahul Alam
Agricultural Economics Division, BARI, Gazipur.

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

An ex-ante rate of return analysis for estimating the future returns from Shatabdi variety of wheat was conducted using Alston et al. (1995) spreadsheet method. It was found that the ex- ante IRR to the total investment of Shatabdi variety of wheat research and extension was 44 per cent and the efficiency index was 17: I. Under various assumptions of shifrer, expenditures, yield change, rate of adoption, elasticity and exogenous growth rate, the magnitude of IRR varied from 35 to 85 percent and the magnitude of efficiency index varied from 12: I to 16

Keywords: Ex-ante impact, Efficiency index, Rate of return ,Shatabdi wheat

Location: BARI, Gazipur

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Commodity: Wheat

Objectives:

1. To estimate the future rates of return of the Shatabdi variety of wheat

2. To provide information to policy makers, donor agencies and researchers about the future contribution of Shatabdi variety.

Methodology:

Ex-ante economic surplus approach under small open economy model was considered. The method developed by Alston et ai. (1995) was applied in this analysis. The empirical model for estimating the change in total surplus (benefits from investment in wheat research) was used.The most appealing method of expressing the relationship between the total research costs and total benefits is the internal rate of return (IRR). It is defined as the rate of interest that makes the discounted total research costs equal to the discounted total benefits at a given point in time. The internal rate of return is calculated by an iterative procedure (i.e., increasing the interest rate until the accumulation total research costs are equal to the discounted total benefits).

Source of Information: J.Patuakhali Sci. and Tech. Univ. 2009, 1 (2): 175-182 ISSN 1996-4501

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

It was found that the ex- ante IRR to the total investment of Shatabdi variety of wheat research and extension was 44 per cent and the efficiency index was 17: I. Under various assumptions of shifter, expenditures, yield change, rate of adoption, elasticity and exogenous growth rate, the magnitude of IRR varied from 35 to 85 percent and the magnitude of efficiency index varied from 12: I to 16

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