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The Rainfall and Average Maximum Temperature Effects on Aman Rice Production of Bangladesh

Dr. Md. Ismail Hossin
PSO and Head
Agricultural Statistics Division, BRRI

Niaz Md. Farhat Rahman
SSO
Agricultural Statistics Division, BRRI

Md. Abdullah Aziz
Data Analyst
Agricultural Statistics Division, BRRI

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

In North-Eastern and South-Eastern regions of Bangladesh Aman production is proportional to rainfall and inversely proportional to average maximum temperature which indicate, the rainfall and temperature effect the rice production prominently. So, other parameters are less prominent to effect the production in this region. In South-Western region the Aman production decreased though rainfall but temperature does not show significant change. This scenario indicates rice productions in this region are less depends on rainfall and average maximum temperature. There may other factors are more prominent in this region. We know that most the area of the region is situated under tidal effect which may be the cause of production decrease. But most noticeable that, in North-Western region Aman production increased though rainfall decreased so significantly also average maximum temperature was high in this region.

Keywords: Maximum Temperature, Aman Rice Production and GIS

Location: BRRI HQ, Gazipur

Start Date: 00-00-2012

End Date: 00-00-2013

Program Area: Risk Management in Agriculture

Non-commodity: Weather/Climate

Objectives:

To understand the impact of climate on rice (Aman) production.
To assess the possible change in yield of rice.
To identify the vulnerable rice growing area in Bangladesh for changing climatic condition and adaptation process.
To assess the possible change in rice (Aman) yield under historical assumption.
Policy recommendation to increase rice production under upcoming diver’s climatic condition.

Methodology:

The study is conducted for the effect of climate variables (rainfall, maximum temperature) on Aman rice production and mapping in Bangladesh. We used time series data for the last decade (2002-2012) for rainfall and maximum temperature from Bangladesh Meteorological Department, statistical Years books of Bangladesh and Department of Agricultural Extension respectively. From the combined trend of rainfall and maximum temperature intensity, geographically Bangladesh is divided into four regions such as; North-Eastern Region, South-Eastern Region, South-Western Region and North-Western Region in this research. In North-Eastern regions Aman production is proportional to rainfall and maximum temperature does not prominent variables which indicate the rainfall effect the rice production prominently. In the South-Eastern region rainfall and maximum temperature both are in repetitive and show less effect on production which indicates other variables are prominent in this region. There may have salinity and soil condition effect on the Aman rice production of this region. In South-Western region the both variables are prominent in this region. We know that most the area of the region is situated under tidal effect which may be the cause of production decrease. In North-Western region Aman production increased though rainfall decreased so significantly also average maximum temperature was high in this region. It implies that maximum temperature is the dominant factor in this region which increases the Aman rice production significantly. So, effect of maximum temperature becoming the dominant variable continuously in the Aman rice production of Bangladesh in last decade. The information furnished in the study based on different database. Data was entering and processing in the computer by using MS-Excel and MS-access programs. GIS Centre of BRRI (Bangladesh Rice Research Institute) was used for contour mapping and documentation. All data were converted into standard units (Metric tons, mm,⁰C).

Source of Information: BRRI Annual Report 2012-13,217-225,BRRI, Gazipur.

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

1. Government

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

We found that in North-Eastern and South-Eastern regions of Bangladesh Aman production is proportional to rainfall and inversely proportional to average maximum temperature which indicate, the rainfall and temperature effect the rice production prominently. So, other parameters are less prominent to effect the production in this region. In South-Western region the Aman production decreased though rainfall but temperature does not show significant change. This scenario indicates rice productions in this region are less depends on rainfall and average maximum temperature. But most noticeable that, in North-Western region Aman production increased though rainfall decreased so significantly also average maximum temperature was high in this region. It implies that other factors such as; modern technology, new varieties, irrigation systems etc. led the good production in this region. So it may be a good example of how to combat against climatic factors and needs to further detail study. Maximum accurate data are required to make the research most effective and more data need to create interpolation map for rainfall and temperature. In South-west region, there also need further research for the salinity and tidal effect on the rice production in this region.

Knowledge Management: Report/Proceedings