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Estimating Area and Production of Rice in Bangladesh for 2006-07

Debi Narayan Rudra Pual
CSO
Agril. Statistics DiVision Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) Gazipur-1701.

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

For estimating area and production of rice in Bangladesh, a detail block-wise record of area and the number of plots planted to rice crop in different seasons has to be made at every five-year interval. Three crop-cuts has to be made in three rice fields for each variety under each land type A single circular cut where the plants falling inside the circumference of the circle are to be harvested for crop-cut in estimating transplanted as well as direct seeded rice yield and the radius of the circle should be 178.5 cm so that the cut area becomes 10 m² in order to easy conversion of the crop-cut yield to t/ha. There should be at least two crop-cuts in each plot to minimize the chance of over or under estimation of the rice yield.

Keywords: Rice, Area, Production

Location: Kapasia upazila of Gazipur district

Start Date: 00-00-2007

End Date: 00-00-2007

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Non-commodity: Analysis and interpretations

Objectives:

To formulate a protocol that provides reliable and unique estimates on area and production of rice.
To compare the estimate of area and production of rice from Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) and Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS)

Methodology:

Procedures followed by DAE (Method A) and BBS (Method B) was compared through actual crop-cut taken in farmer’s field. Crop-cut was done in a farmer’s field in Boro 2007 at Kapasia upazila of Gazipur district. The variety was BRRI dhan29. Before crop-cut, an area of 300 m² (20-×-15 m) was demarcated in the field leaving one meter from each levy as boarder. (300 m²) were obtained as follows:

Method A: The average of three measures of moistures was considered to be the moisture content of the fresh harvest for each crop-cut and adjusted at 14% moisture content. The adjusted weight was then converted to t/ha. The formula for adjusting fresh weight at 14% moisture content is given by where, w = fresh weight, MC = moisture content
Method B: The average of three measures of moisture content was considered to be the moisture content of the fresh harvest for each portion of a circular cut and adjusted at 14% moisture content. The adjusted weight was then added together and converted to t/ha that gives the weight of paddy for a circular area of radius .
Method C (proposed): Yield was estimated using a modified procedure where all hills within the circular area of radius were considered to be harvested through a single cut instead of harvesting crops in three portions under method B. For the present exercise, the fresh weight of paddy obtained from three portions of a circular cut under method B were added and the average moisture content of nine measures of moisture content was used to estimated the rice yield. The fresh weight (total of three portions of a circular cut) was then adjusted to 14% moisture content and converted to t/ha.
Estimation of whole plot yield: The rest of the area (184.5 m²) that remained after 12 crop-cuts was harvested separately, threshed, cleaned and weighed. The moisture content was the average of the moisture content measured from three samples from the lot. The fresh harvest of the remaining area was then adjusted to 14% moisture content and converted to t/ha. The weight of the whole plot was obtained as the total weight of remaining area and the weights of all cuts done using methods A and B.

Computation of precision and relative efficiency of the estimates

(a) The mean yield of six cuts under each crop-cut method is given by where y_i is the estimate of yield for i^th cut

(b) The variance (V) of the estimates for each crop-cut method is obtained as , where y_i is the estimate of yield for i^th cut and μ is the true or the whole plot yield.

Source of Information: BRRI Annual Report 2006-07

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

1. Government

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

A large variation in the estimate of yield using method A compared to that using method B and C. The high variability in the estimate for the method A is due to overall fertility gradient of the field from east to west. This is evident from the fact that the estimates for the cuts with length in the north - south direction are higher than those for the cuts with length in the east - west direction. Generally, yield estimated using method A is found to be higher than the yield estimated by circular methods. In case of method A, the percent deviation of crop-cut yield from the whole plot yield ranges 2-14%, which is less than 7% in case of method B and C. It is seen that average of crop-cut yields estimated using either of the circular methods (Method B and Method C) is about five times more precise than the average yield obtained using method A. minimize the chance of over or under estimation of the whole plot yield and the radius of the circle should be 178.5cm so that the cut area becomes 10 m² in order to easy conversion of the crop-cut yield to t/ha .

Knowledge Management: Report/Proceedings