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Probability Mapping of Minimum Temperature During the Period of Boro Rice Cultivation

Debi Narayan Rudra Pual
CSO
Head, Agril. Statistics Division Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) Gazipur-1701

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The objective of the study is to determine the expected minimum temperature in different regions of Bangladesh from November to April In Boro season. Return period or recurrence interval (T) is average number of years during which a minimum temperature of given magnitude will be equalled or exceeded once. The only stable variety was BRRI dhan29. BR12 showed a sign of loosing its stability in changing environments and BR6 was found to be an unstable variety in Boro season. Farmers should be informed as well as aware about the behaviour of temperature in order to shifting sowing and planting time as well as selection of appropriate varieties to avoid the adverse affect of cold at different growth stages.Cold spell is not a catastrophic appearance; it maintains a systematic repetition in every year, every alternate year, three years, five years, seven years, ten years and twenty years in each region.

Keywords: Minimum Temperature, Boro Rice, GIS

Location: All over the Bangladesh

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Non-commodity: Ecosystem mapping

Objectives:

To determine the expected minimum temperature in different regions of Bangladesh from November to April
To delineate the areas of critical minimum temperature for Boro rice onto maps of Bangladesh during the period from November to April,
To estimate the return period of cool temperature below critical level at reproductive phase in Boro growing areas.

Methodology:

Forty to fifty years data on weekly minimum and maximum temperature of 24 weather stations of Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) were used in this study. Pearson Type I distribution was applied to graduate probability distribution of weekly minimum and maximum temperature for each weather station. A computer program written in SAS language (MH, 2007) was used to estimate expected value of minimum and maximum of temperatures at different probability levels separately for each week and for each station. Classification of critical temperature by Yoshida (1981) was used to delineate the area under critical minimum temperature from November to April. ArcView Spatial Analyst 3.2 was used to create surface of minimum temperature for each week and for each station. Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) interpolation was used for creating the surfaces of critical temperatures. Return period or recurrence interval (T) is average number of years during which a minimum temperature of given magnitude will be equalled or exceeded once.

Source of Information: BRRI Annual Report 2006-07

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

1. Government

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

Distribution of weekly minimum, maximum and mean temperature at different weather stations in Bangladesh at 80% probability has been observed. The mean temperature often falls below 20°C ranges from third week of December to first week of February in Srimongal, Rangpur, Rajshahi, Mymensingh, Dinajpur, Madaripur, Jessore, Faridpur and Bogra. Minimum temperature goes down to 9°C at some stations and in most of the stations minimum of maximum temperature is around 30°C. A minimum temperature 10°C prevails in Srimangal, Dinajpur, Ishwardi, Rajshahi, Jessore and Rangpur from third week of December to first week of February and it remains at <15 °C in all the stations from fourth week of November to first week of March. It is seen that at all stations, the minimum temperature remains below 20 °C from November to second week of April. Delineated areas of minimum temperature at 80% probability level are shown in the maps (1-16). The expected minimum temperature in fourth week of November was ranges 15-20 °C almost all over Bangladesh except greater Rangpur and Dinajpur districts where minimum temperature remains between 10 and 15 °C. From central to upper part of the country except Sylhet district.

Knowledge Management: Report/Proceedings