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Farm Resource Optimization and Uncertainty Management in Irrigated Farming

F I M Golam Wahed Sarker
Senior Scientific Officer
Irrigation and Water Management Division, BRRI, Gazipur

John Lingard
Professor
Department of Agricultural Economics and Food Marketing, University of Newcastle upon Tyne, UK

M A Jabber
Principal Scientific Officer
Agricultural Economics Division, BRRI, Gazipur

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

Farm resources among farm sizes are limited in relation to crops demand. Moreover, mis allocation of scarce resources reduces farm income and employment. An optimal combination of crop enterprises would ensure efficient use of land and other resources and thereby increase farm income and employment. Farm production is inherently an uncertain process. The main sources of uncertainty in crop production are price and yield instability. Therefore, a study was conducted to assess the impact of farm resources optimization and uncertainty management for crop production in STW based irrigation system. Cropping intensity increased to 222% in the optimal plans compared to 209% in existing situations. Labour employment increased 24% and 2% on large and small farms, respectively. and increased farm income by 27% and 3% on large and small farms. This shows mis allocation of existing resources. Models predicted that the impact of a poor year sharply reduced land and input use, which drastically decreased production and farm incomes. Finally, models clearly indicated that scarcity of irrigation water decreased crop area and thus reduced input use and farm income of all types of farms, Therefore, steps should be taken to forecast agro-climatic conditions well ahead and improved on-farm water management practices.

Keywords: Resource, Optimization, Uncertainty and Farming

Location: Shibganj, Bogra, Bangladesh

Start Date: 01-03-1999

End Date: 15-10-2000

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Non-commodity: Analysis and interpretations

Objectives:

To assess the impact of farm resources optimization for crop production in large and small farms within Shallow tube well (STW) irrigation systems and
To simulate the impact of alternative scenarios (states of nature and availability of irrigation water) on crop production, resource use, net farm income and employment on farms in STW irrigation area.

Methodology:

A group of farmers from 10 shallow tube well from 5 agricultural blocks in Shibganj Upazila of Bogra district were chosen randomly. A field survey was conducted fro April to June 1999 to collect primary data. To record the information, pre-tested survey schedules were used to interview the farmers and tube well owners directly. The questionnaire had sections for obtaining general information on the farm and data on the costs and returns of different crops grown in each season and information relating to investment and operating capital requirements and technical aspects of the irrigation system. Linear programming (LP) model was used to determine the optimal farm resource and irrigation water allocation on farms.The assumed objective function was to maximize total farm income (gross margin) for annual cycle. Gross margins were calculated by deducting the variable costs from the gross return. Labour, bullocks power tillers and irrigation water hiring for respective periods were treated as separate activities in the LP model and the cost of these activities have not been included in the gross margins of individual crop.A sensitivity analysis (changes in the value of the optimal solution) gives some indication of the stability of the optimal solution. Thus, sensitivity analysis was carried out by changing the yields and irrigation water at different levels and determine the impacts on crop production, resource use, farm income and employment.

Source of Information: The Journal of Rural Development. Vol.33 No.1, January, 2006, 0045-62, BARD, Comilla

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

1.

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

Optimal plans show a mis allocation of existing resources and scope for increasing farm income and employment by reallocation of existing resources. Results of alternative states of nature revealed that a good year increased cropped area and input use. But a poor year sharply reduced land and input use, which drastically decreased crop production, farm income and employment. Water scarcity decreased crop areas and reduced input use at farm income of all types of farms. Model results indicated that small farms are more vulnerable/responsive to water scarcity than large farms. The research supports the view that the government should maintain a policy that favour private sector investment and operation of STW irrigation equipment and that extension worker should direct farmers to better allocation of their farm resources for augmenting farm income.

Knowledge Management: Journal