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The State of Food Security in Bangladesh: an Econometric Analysis

Yesmin Akhter
Lecturer of the Institute of Statistical Research and Training, (ISRT), University of Dhaka.

Md. Motiur Rahman
Professor of the Institute of Statistical Research and Training, (ISRT), University of Dhaka.

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The main concern of this paper is to examine the food availability, self-sufficiency rate and food gap situation in Bangladesh. Attempt has been made to estimate food gaps between production and requirement for the last thirteen years. Future productions of rice and wheat have been forecasted by using appropriate econometric methods such as ARIMA and Holt's linear smoothing parameter approach. Forecasting of future food grain availability, food grain requirement and food gaps between production and requirement from 2010/11 to 2015/16 has been made. Finally some recommendations which would be helpful for improving the food security situation in Bangladesh have been suggested.

Keywords: State of food security, Economic analysis

Location:

Start Date: 00-00-1965

End Date: 00-00-2010

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Commodity: Analysis and interpretations

Objectives:

To examine the food availability, self-sufficiency rate and food gap situation in Bangladesh.

Methodology:

For the present study, the data were collected from different secondary sources among which the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) is important. The time series data, particularly, on food grain (rice and wheat) production for 1965-2010 were obtained from Statistical Year Book of different years published by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). In this paper the methodology first refers to use of ARIMA model as propounded by Box and r Jenkins (1976) for forecasting of requirement and production of rice.

Source of Information: Bangladesh J. Agric. Econs. XXXIII, 1& 2(20/0) 103-120

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

Forecasting of future food grain availability, food grain requirement and food gaps between production and requirement from 2010/11 to 2015/16 has been made. Finally some recommendations which would be helpful for improving the food security situation in Bangladesh have been suggested.

Knowledge Management: Journal