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Searching for the Best Fitting Deterministic Model for Innovative Growth Analysis and Forecasting of Rice Production in Bangladesh

M. E. Haque
Associate Professor Department of' Agricultural Statistics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh.

M. I. Hossain
Professor Department of Agricultural Statistics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh.

K. M. M. Rahman
Associate Professor. Department of' Agricultural Statistics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh.

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The study tried to find out appropriate models using seven contemporary model selection criteria that could best describe the growth pattern of rice production in Bangladesh and in its foil regions (former divisions) Chittagong, Dhaka. Khulna and Rajshahi during the time period 1973/74 to 2000/01. It appeared from the study that the best fitting model for rice production in the whole country and in Dhaka was the cubic model. For Chittagong the quadratic model was the best. It means that the assumption of constant annual rate of growth in percent that lies behind the use of exponential/compound model, which was very common to use in describing growth pattern, was not true for the growth pattern of rice production in the country as a whole and also in its two regions Dhaka and Chittagong. In other words, in these regions and in the country as a whole the growth rates were different over different time points. The variation of the growth rate in the country as a whole was 1.38 to 5.76 percent, in Dhaka -1.09 to 13.01 percent and in Chittagong 0.92 to 2.06 percent during the study period. In Khulna and Rajshahi regions the exponential/compound model seemed to be appropriate. The rice production in Khulna grew at the constant rate of 2.6 percent, on the average, per year and in Rajshahi at the rate of 3.3 percent throughout the study period. Five-year forecasts were also made for each of the four regions and for the country as a whole using the best fitted models.

Keywords: Searching, Deterministic model,Innovative growth analysis,Focusting rice production

Location: Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna and Rajshahi

Start Date: 00-00-1973

End Date: 00-00-2001

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Commodity: Rice

Objectives:

To find out appropriate models using seven contemporary model selection criteria that could best describe the growth pattern of rice production in Bangladesh

Methodology:

The present study makes an extensive use of secondary time series data of rice production in the four regions and also in the country as a whole for the period 1973/74 to 2000/01. Four old divisions Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna and Rajshahi of the country are considered as four regions. The data were collected from the various publications of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS, 1982, 1990, 1999, 2000, 20001). This is the only government level institute responsible for collecting and storing necessary data required for future planning and development of the country. The models those are used to describe the behavior of variables that vary with respect to time are termed as growth models. This type of models is needed in a specific area and in a specific problem that depends on the type of growth that. occurs in the time series data. In general, growth models are mechanism rather than empirical ones. A mechanical growth model usually arises as a result of making assumptions about the type of growth, wri ting down the differential or difference equations that represent these assumptions and then solving these equations. An empirical model, on the other hand, is a model chosen empirically to approximate an unknown mechanistic model. Typically the empirical model is a polynomial of some suitable order. However, in this study, nine growth models are considered for our searching purpose.

Source of Information: Bangladesh. J. Agric. Econs XXVII, I(2004) 15-35

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

It appeared from the study that the best fitting model for rice production in the whole country and in Dhaka was the cubic model. For Chittagong the quadratic model was the best. It means that the assumption of constant annual rate of growth in percent that lies behind the use of exponential/compound model, which was very common to use in describing growth pattern, was not true for the growth pattern of rice production in the country as a whole and also in its two regions Dhaka and Chittagong. In other words, in these regions and in the country as a whole the growth rates were different over different time points. The variation of the growth rate in the country as a whole was 1.38 to 5.76 percent, in Dhaka -1.09 to 13.01 percent and in Chittagong 0.92 to 2.06 percent during the study period. In Khulna and Rajshahi regions the exponential/compound model seemed to be appropriate. The rice production in Khulna grew at the constant rate of 2.6 percent, on the average, per year and in Rajshahi at the rate of 3.3 percent throughout the study period. Five-year forecasts were also made for each of the four regions and for the country as a whole using the best fitted models.

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