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Growth and Trend in Area, Production and Yield of Major Crops of Bangladesh

Sharmin Akhter
Department of Development and Poverty Studies, Sher-e-Bangla Agricultural University, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Jaba Rani Sarker *
Department of Agricultural Economics, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur, Bangladesh

Keya Rani Das
Department of Statistics, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur, Bangladesh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The present study was conducted with a view to analyze growth and trend in area, production and yield of major crops of Bangladesh. The scope of this study was to determine/ assess the growth pattern in the context of total cultivable area, gross production and yield rate which has been followed by some economically important crops of our country such as rice, wheat, pulse, rape and mustard, jute, sugarcane & tea. Collecting time series data from 1969-74 to 2004-2009 (40 years) of those crops from reliable source and using semi-log trend function here the researchers tried to find out the trend and estimate the growth rate of area, production and yield of the above mentioned crops. The compound growth rate as well as trend analysis indicated that the production of rice during 1969-74 to 2004-09 was increased due to the corresponding increase in per hectare yield of rice crop in Bangladesh. The results show that area, production and yield of wheat was increased over the time the reason is that more area was brought under wheat production except the year 2004-2009. It was revealed from the results that area, production and yield of pulse were increased over the time. The results shows that area, production and yield of rape and mustard was increasing a rate of 1.21 percent, 2.33 percent and 1.11 percent per annum, respectively, whereas, the area, production and yield of jute was decreasing. It was revealed from the analysis that the trend co-efficient of area, production and yield of sugarcane and tea was positive.

Keywords: Growth, Trend, Semi-Log Model, Major Crops, Bangladesh

Location:

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Non-commodity: Performance

Objectives:

The specific objectives of the study are:

a) To study the present condition of agriculture in general, we have to examine the agricultural output per unit of land in Bangladesh.

b) To examine the growth and trends in area, production and yield of agricultural land of Bangladesh for the period from 1969-74 to 2004-09.

Methodology:

The data used for the analysis are accumulated from various issues of statistics department of Bangladesh Bank. A time series data from 1969-74 to 2004-2009 (40 years) regarding the area, production and yield of major crops (rice, wheat, pulse, rape and mustard) were collected from the above mentioned source. The following semi-log trend function was used to find out the trend and estimate the growth rate of area, production and yield of major crops of Bangladesh.

ln Z = β₀ + β₁ X + e

Where Z = dependent variable (area, yield and production); X = trend over specific period; β₁= coefficient of trend; ln = natural logarithm; and e = error term. Here, the coefficient of trend (β₁) measures the constant proportional or relative change in Z for a given absolute change in the value of the regressor X. If 100 multiply the relative change in Z, give the percentage change, or the growth rate, in Z for an absolute change in X, the regressor. That is, 100 times β₁gives the growth rate in Z; 100 times β₁ is known in the literature as the semi-elasticity of Z with respect to X and gives the instantaneous (at a point in time) rate of growth, to find out the compound (over a period of time) rate of growth, the following formula was applied.

β₁= ln (1+ r)

Where β₁= Instantaneous rate of growth; ln = Natural logarithm; r = Compound rate of growth. Hence taking antilog of β₁, subtract 1 from it and multiply the difference by 100, would give compound rate of growth.

Source of Information: International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, Volume 4, Issue 1, February 2016, ISSN Print: 2326-9553

Article Link (Online Journal): http://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/html/10.11648.j.ijefm.20160401.13.html#paper-abstract

Funding Source:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

The compound growth rate as well as trend analysis indicated that the production of rice during 1969-74 to 2004-09 was increased due to the corresponding increase in per hectare yield of rice in Bangladesh. On the other hand, the trend analysis indicated that the production of jute during the same period was decreased due to the corresponding decrease in per hectare yield of jute in Bangladesh. The production of Wheat has increased due to the corresponding increase in area whereas per hectare yield of wheat has decreased over the time. In compare with wheat, the production of sugarcane was increased due to the corresponding increase in per hectare yield, whereas the area under sugarcane was decreased over the time. The results show that area, production and yield of tea, pulse, rape and mustard was increased over the time.

Knowledge Management: Journal