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Growth, Instability and Forecasting of Pigeon Pea, Chickpea and Field Pea Pulse Production in Bangladesh

Niaz Md. Farhat Rahman
Lecturer
Dept of Basic Science, Sheikh Fazilatunnessa Mujib Fisheries College, Melandah, Jamalpur

M. F. Imam
Assistant Professor
Department of Agricultural Statistics Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh.

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The study tried to find out the appropriate models using latest model selection criteria that could describe the best growth pattern of pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production. The study also tried to measure the instability, growth rates of pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production and to determine the efficient time series models, to forecast the future pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production in Bangladesh. Forecasting attempts have been made to achieve the target by developing the models namely, deterministic type growth models. The magnitude of instability in pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulses production was estimated by computing the coefficient of variation (CV) and the percentage deviation from three years moving average values. The study reveals that the pigeon pea pulse production was relatively stable (CV being 26.70%) compared to the chickpea (CV being 49.43%) and field pea (CV being 27.78%). Among the deterministic type models for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production the cubic model is found to be the most appropriate one. The variation of the growth rates in pigeon pea pulse production was - 28.71 % to 2.52%, in chickpea pulse production was -79.49% to 2.56% and in field pea pulse production was -19.12% to 5.83% during the study period. For forecasting purposes, we forecasted the pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production in Bangladesh in the year of 2008-09 to 2012- 2013.

Keywords: Growth, Instability,Forecasting,Pigeon pea, Chickpea,Field pea, Production

Location:

Start Date: 00-00-1967

End Date: 00-00-2008

Program Area: Crop-Soil-Water Management

Commodity: Pigeonpea, Chickpea, Fieldpea

Objectives:

1.To measure the instability of pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulses production in Bangladesh;

2.To measure the growth rates of pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulses production in Bangladesh;

3.To identify the best fitted growth model;

4.To forecast pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulses production in Bangladesh using the best fitted growth models

Methodology:

The present study was conducted using secondary time series data of pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulses production (metric ton). The data were collected from the various publications of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS; 1970 to 2007) and Agricultural Statistics (1976-77 to 2005). This is the only government level institute responsible for collecting and storing necessary data required for future planning and development of the country. For analyzing the data of productions of pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulses, time series data from 1967-68 to 2007-08 have been used. The models those are used to describe the behaviors of variables that vary with respect to time are termed as growth models. This type of model is needed in a specific area and in a specific problem that depends on the type of growth that occurs in the time series data. In general, growth models are mechanistic rather than empirical ones. A mechanical model usually arises as a result of making assumption about the types of growth, writing down the differentials or difference equations that represent these assumptions and then solving the equation to obtain a growth model. An empirical model, on the other hand, is a model chosen to empirically approximate an unknown mechanistic model. Typically, the empirical model is a polynomial of some suitable order. However, in this study nine growth models are considered for our searching purpose. Their functional forms and formulas for calculating growth rates are given in Table l. One can easily see by looking into Table 01 that the natures of the different growth rate for different models are different. The growth rate in the linear model is constant in its absolute value throughout the time interval and the growth rates in the exponential and compound models are constant throughout the time interval in its percentage value. But the growth rates for other models are dependent on time.

Source of Information: Bangladesh J. Agric. Econs. XXXI, 1(2008) 81-95

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

1. Government

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

The study reveals that the pigeon pea pulse production was relatively stable (CV being 26.70%) compared to the chickpea (CV being 49.43%) and field pea (CV being 27.78%). Among the deterministic type models for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production the cubic model is found to be the most appropriate one. The variation of the growth rates in pigeon pea pulse production was - 28.71 % to 2.52%, in chickpea pulse production was -79.49% to 2.56% and in field pea pulse production was -19.12% to 5.83% during the study period. For forecasting purposes, we forecasted the pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production in Bangladesh in the year of 2008-09 to 2012- 2013.

Knowledge Management: Journal