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A Model to Predict Climate Change Impact on Fish Catch in the World Oceans

BK Biswas
Research Fellow
Department of Integrated Systems Analysis Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsfach 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany.

Yu. M. Svirezhev
Professor
Department of Integrated Systems Analysis Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsfach 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany.

BK Bala Professor
Department of farm Power and Machinery Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh.

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

Water temperature plays a very important role for fish production. The assessment of the impact of the water temperature changes on fish catches in world fishery is essential for sustainable management of the world fishery resources. Fish catch includes different species, but using information analysis it is shown that total fish catch can be used without significant loss of information about dynamic properties of the system. A new method for forecasting of fish catch of the major fishing areas in the World Oceans under the global climate change (temperature) has been developed. This method predicts the tendency (increase or decrease) for fish catch with quantitative predictor’s power if the temperature is known. This method has been applied to the Indian Ocean to assess the climate change impact on fish catch. Based on the temperatures predicted using CLIMate-BiospheRE model for the years 2000-2100, a decrease of fish catch in the Indian Ocean with the confidence of the predictor’s power (³ 90%) have been predicted.

Keywords: Climate change impact, Surface water temperature, Fish catch, Multimoment statistical analysis, Statistical forecasting.

Location: Department of Farm Power and Machinery, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Bangladesh and Germany

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Farm Mechanization

Commodity: Fish

Objectives:

To predict the fish catches in the World Oceans based on the predicted temperatures global climate change

Methodology:

A knowledge of the effects of the temperature on fish catches in world fishery is essential for sustainable management of the world fishery resources. The data on historical behaviour of surface water temperature and fish catches are to be analyzed to develop a new method for climate impact on world fishery resources. On the basis of the information contained in the processed data a new method for forecasting the impact of climate change on world fisheries was developed.

Source of Information: IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, Part A., 35(6): 773-783, 2005

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

A new method of “multi-moment statistical analysis and forecasting” has been developed for prediction of climate change impacts on fishery, and its salient features presented henceforth:

(1) a statistical relation between the sea surface temperature and fish catch has been successfully developed.

(2) a predictor which allows to predict the tendency (increase or decrease) of fish catch if the temperature is known has been successfully constructed.

(3) the predictor’s power has also been quantitatively estimated.

(4) based on the temperatures using CLIMBER-2 model for the years 2000-2100, a decrease of fish catch in the Indian Ocean, with the confidence of the predictor’s power (³ 90%) is predicted.

(5) the fish catch in the Indian Ocean will decrease. This can be explained in a way that the sea surface temperature will be increased every year and it will be higher than the optimum temperature for fish growth. The fish catch in the World Oceans will increase or decrease which have been determined.

(6) this research will also generate sufficient scientific information for researchers, fishermen, consumers and fish processors, nationally and internationally.

Knowledge Management: Journal