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Magnitude and Sources of Production Variability of Major Foodgrains in Bangladesh

Nazma Akter
Lecturer
Lecturer, Department of Basic and Social Science, Chittagong Veterinary and Animal Sciences University, Chittagong;

W. M.H. Jaim
Professor,
Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh.

Uttam Kumar Deb
Research Director
Research Director, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

Based on national level data from secondary sources, changes in production variability and their sources of changes for Bangladesh as a whole were measured for major foodgrains- Aus, Aman and Boro rice as well as wheat during 1979/80 to 1998/99 which were again sub-divided between two time periods before full-implementation of privatization policies (1979/80-1988/89) and after full implementation of privatization policies (1989/90-1998/99). The results showed that during the period after full-implementation of privatization policies (AFIPP) both the absolute variability (Standard Deviation, SD) and relative variability (coefficient of variation, CV) increased in the cases of Aus rice, Arran rice and wheat production. Absolute variability increased but relative variability decreased in the cases of Boro rice and total food grains production. The increase in CV of Aman rice and wheat production is due to increase in both SD and average production of Aman rice and wheat. The increase in relative variability of Aus rice is due to increase in absolute variability and decrease in average production of Aus rice. The decrease in CV of Boro rice and total food grains production is attributed to increase in both SD and average production of Boro rice and total good grains. The results also showed that in the cases of Aus and Boro rice change in mean area: in the cases of Aman rice and total food grains change in mean area variance, and in the case of wheat change in yield variance contributed largely to change in production variance. Inter-regional covariance is the largest contributor to change in production variance of Aus rice, Boro rice, wheat and total food grains between the period before and after full implementation of privatization policies. In the case of Aman rice, Rangpur region is the largest contributor to change in production variance.

Keywords: Magnitude, Production Major food grain

Location:

Start Date: 00-00-1979

End Date: 00-00-1999

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Commodity: Rice

Objectives:

1.To determine the magnitude of variability in area, yield and production of major food grains in Bangladesh

2.To analyze the sources of variability in major foodgrain production with special emphasis on privatization policies related to modern technology and their magnitude; and contribution of different regions and inter-regional covariance to change in production variability.

Methodology:

The data required for this study relate to aggregate (national) and district (regional) level data of major food grain crops (Aus rice, Aman rice, Boro rice and wheat). The data used here were collected from the published documents of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). Data relating to the 1979/80-1998/99 were obtained from BBS (1985, 1987, 1989, 1993, 1997 and 2001). These data were however checked with other published and unpublished data sources and corrected when major errors were detected. Magnitude of changes in production variability and their sources for major foodgrainsAus rice, Aman rice, Boro rice and wheat were measured between the two time periods. The first period was before full-implementation of privatization policies which covered the period from 1979/80-1988/89 and the second period was after full-implementation of privatization polices, covering the period from 1989/90 to 1998/99. Analysis was done both at national and regional levels. In this study, the country was disaggregated into 21 regions, which considered with the former 23 districts. The regions are: Chittagong, Chittagong Hill Tracts (Rangamati, Bandarban, Khagrachari), Comilla, Noakhali, Sylhet, Dhaka, Faridpur, Jamalpur, Kishoreganj, Mymensingh, Tangail, Borisal, Jossore, Khulna, Kushtia, Patuakhali, Bogra, Dinajpur, Pabna, Rajshahi and Rangpur. In the case of wheat, Chittagong, Chittagong Hill Tracts, Noakhali, Barisal, Khulna and Patuakhali districts have been considered together as `Other regions' due to their small figures. Absolute and relative changes in area, yield and production variability were measured in the study. For measuring instability in area, production and yield of the selected foodgrain crops, their changes in standard deviation by regions were at first estimated between the two periods. Of the various measures of absolute dispersion, standard deviation was used because it is the most suitable method for measuring deviations in time series data (Croxton et. al., 1975). The standard deviation is an absolute measure of dispersion, hence the corresponding relative measure i.e., coefficient of variation was used to measure the instability and its change between the two periods. The sum of square of the deviations of each observation from the mean of the observations was used to compute the coefficient of variation (C.V.).

Source of Information: Bangladesh J. Agric. Econs XXX, 1(2007) 39-56

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

The results showed that during the period after full-implementation of privatization policies (AFIPP) both the absolute variability (Standard Deviation, SD) and relative variability (coefficient of variation, CV) increased in the cases of Aus rice, Arran rice and wheat production. Absolute variability increased but relative variability decreased in the cases of Boro rice and total food grains production. The increase in CV of Aman rice and wheat production is due to increase in both SD and average production of Aman rice and wheat. The increase in relative variability of Aus rice is due to increase in absolute variability and decrease in average production of Aus rice. The decrease in CV of Boro rice and total food grains production is attributed to increase in both SD and average production of Boro rice and total good grains. The results also showed that in the cases of Aus and Boro rice change in mean area: in the cases of Aman rice and total food grains change in mean area variance, and in the case of wheat change in yield variance contributed largely to change in production variance. Inter-regional covariance is the largest contributor to change in production variance of Aus rice, Boro rice, wheat and total food grains between the period before and after full implementation of privatization policies. In the case of Aman rice, Rangpur region is the largest contributor to change in production variance.

Knowledge Management: Journal