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Performance of Crop Production in Bangladesh: Growth and Regional Disparities

M. A. Quddus
Professor
Professor, Department of Agricultural Statistics, B.A.U.,

Kalipada Sen
Professor
Professor Department of Statistics, Dhaka University

M Salimullah
Research Fellow,
Research Fellow, BIDS, Dhaka, respectively

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The study examines the changing trends, growth rates, stability and regional variations of crop area, production and yield. Over time, the average size of farms has become smaller and smaller and the distribution of landholdings has also become more and more skewed a result of which is the increasing landless and near landless farms. But double and triple cropped lands are increasing. Production trends of major crops are also increasing. Production and productivity of rice are increasing in each decade and unstable growth rates were observed for production and productivity of wheat and potatoes. Higher production but very low productivity was observed for minor cereals, pulses and oilseeds. Area irrigated by modern method was increased higher rate, specially, from late eighties. Intensity of cropping is comparatively higher in southeast and northeast regions. Bogra, Jesore, Mymensingh, Comilla, Chittagong and Chittagong Hill Tracts show better position in agricultural development. Out of 20 former districts of Bangladesh, Chittagong Hill Tracts was the top position and khulna was on the second top position using indexing method based on the eight agricultural development indicators.

Keywords: Performance,Crop production, Growth, Regional disparities

Location:

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Non-commodity: Analysis and interpretations

Objectives:

The study examines the changing trends, growth rates, stability and regional variations of crop area, production and yield.

Methodology:

Secondary data were used for this study. Time series data relating to area, production, yield and other relevant agricultural statistics were obtained from various issues of the published reports Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) of different years. Yield figure has been derived from total production in tons divided by total area in hectares from the data. Compound growth rate was computed using the method by Chand and Tewari 1991 and was tested according to the principles of Shaha 1997 and the detailed procedures . An index of instability was computed for examining the nature and degree of instability in area, production and yield of various crops and non-crops. The coefficient of variation (CV) of area / production / yield was used as the measures of variability. However, simple coefficient of variation does not take note of the trend component inherent in the time series data. As an alternative, coefficient of variation around the trend rather than coefficient of variation around the mean (CV) were suggested by Cuddy and Della (1978), Parthasarathy(1984), Gujanana and Sharma (1990) as a better measure of variability. The major estimation procedures such as effects of technical change, compound growth rates, instability index and projection . For analyzing on a regional basis 20 former districts of Bangladesh were grouped into four regions namely, southeast, northeast, southwest and northwest. This grouping was made on the basis of the climatic and hydrological condition of different districts. In addition to these the method of ranking and indexing and the statement of development indicators are presented below. Ranking and indexing methods were adopted to arrive at levels of development of twenty districts. In the ranking methods districts were arranged in descending order of magnitude of each indicator and were assigned ranks from the highest value. The ranks for all indicators pertaining to each sector were aggregated to arrive at the total rank. The lowest value of the `rank total' indicates the highest level of development. The `rank total' may thus be expected to give some sort of guidance to indicate relative development of the districts (Sarker, 1999). In the indexing method, the value of each indicator was expressed as a percentage of the average value of twenty districts. The indices of the indicators for each sector were aggregated separately and the corresponding average for each district was calculated and considered as the index of development of each district. The district having a higher index value reveals a higher level of development. A group of eight indicators relating to development of agriculture have been selected to examine the disparities in agricultural development of former districts in Bangladesh. Most of these indicators relate to adoption of modern technology in agriculture. The development indicators taken from agricultural sector are as follows: percentage of forest area to total geographic area (PFA), percentage of total cropped area to total geoegraphic area (PCA), percentage of net area sown to total geographic area (PNA), cropping intensity, percentage of irrigated area to total cropped area (PIC), productivity of rice (PR), productivity of wheat (PW) and percentage of area under high yielding varieties of rice (PAHR).

Source of Information: Bangladesh J. Agric. Econs XXVII, 2 (2004) 57-74

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

The yields of rice, wheat, oilseeds and potatoes irrespective of their increasing trends are still far below the level needed to meet Bangladesh's growing food needs. To increase more yields farmers should be motivated to give more emphasis on irrigation, investments in HYVs, fertilizer and improved cultural practices. To increase agricultural production the Government should actively take initiative for development of irrigation, flood control and drainage, agricultural research and extension, and development of HYVs of non-cereal crops.It is clear that for most of the major crops, yield increases have been relatively more important, regardless of the level of increased output, which reflects the adoption of new technologies and inputs that made it possible to intensify land use through multiple-cropping. Care should be taken for improving yield levels of usual slow growth crops like minor cereals, pulses and oilseeds. This is to accelerate the trends of crop diversification. The fluctuation in yield is the major cause for the fluctuation in the production and hence the fluctuations in yield have to be controlled to bring in stability in the production. This would mean concerted research efforts in developing new varieties of crops whose yield potential is stable across different agro-climatic regions.

Knowledge Management: Journal