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Demand Projections for Poultry Feeds: Implications for Wheat and Maize Production in Bangladesh

K M Nabiul Islam
Senior Research Fellow
Research Fellow, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), E-17, Agargaon,Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, Dhaka. E-mail: nabiul@sdnbd.org; URL: http//:www.bids-bd.org

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

Wheat and maize are important components of poultry feeds. The demand for wheat and maize, therefore, is expected to increase with the currently experienced sharp growth of poultry farms in Bangladesh. This analysis carries out projections of demand for poultry feeds and its implications for wheat and maize production in Bangladesh over the next 20 years. Under the scenario of rural consumption data from FMRSP and urban consumption data from HES source, and fixed income elasticity of demand, the Demand Analysis Approach projects the use of total grains (as poultry feeds) as 665, 746, 826 and 898 thousand metric tons, for the years 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively. Under the scenario of trend growth rate of poultry population and commercial farms taken as equal to current population growth rate, the Trend Analysis Approach projects the total grains as 683, 740, 801 and 867 thousand metric tons, for these years respectively. The use of grain for poultry feeds for the base year 2000 is estimated to be 631 thousand metric tons. Of this, wheat accounts for 22 and maize accounts for 78 per cent. The requirement of wheat as poultry feed is only 8 per cent of the total domestic production while the requirement of maize as poultry feed is nearly 8 times its domestic production. Our field survey suggests that one of the major reasons of maize production gaining no popularity in Bangladesh relates to lack of incentives on the part of the cultivators. Some motivational steps and market interventions are, therefore, needed in this respect.

Keywords: Demand projections, Poultry feeds, Wheat, Maize, Production

Location:

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Commodity: Wheat, Maize

Objectives:

To estimate the total use of feed as grain by the poultry sub-sector, through assessing the current levels of demand and supply of poultry and poultry products.

Methodology:

Existing Literature and Major Data Sources: Research on livestock resources in Bangladesh, in general, and poultry sub-sector, in particular, is rather limited. The major contributors include Alam (1995; 1997), Mitchell (1997), Quasem (2001) and the studies conducted by the Department of Livestock from time to time. The research by Alam (1995), which has been later updated (Alam 1997), is an useful document on livestock resources in Bangladesh, presenting the existing status and the future potential of the sub-sector. The research, concentrating more on cattle and buffaloes, estimated livestock (including poultry) population and products and their growth rates as of 1994-95. The research also delineated the socio-economic aspects of livestock including identifying the constraints to livestock production. Mitchell (1997), which is a policy paper, based on a mission to Bangladesh, outlined the problems and prospects of livestock sector. It also covered consumption and marketing aspects of poultry products in Bangladesh, largely using data generated by FAO Yearbook (1997). The paper by Haque and Raha (1997) is a research note concentrating on maize marketing in Bangladesh at the micro level. The study by Saha and Asaduzzaman (1998) discussed the present status of production organization and technology, concentrating on the poultry sub-sector with special emphasis on dis aggregated input-output structure for the sub-sector. This was a background study, aiming at estimating relevant input output coefficients for use in the construction of the national input-output table. The study by Quasem (2001), undertaken simultaneously with the present study under Food Management and Research Support Project (FMRSP), discussed survey results showing the principal characteristics of poultry farms and the efficiency of their feeding practices at both household and commercial levels. This study has also consulted other documents published elsewhere, such as Sarma (1986) and Mink (1987). Sarma (1986), a Research Report published by IFPRI (Washington), is concerned with the analysis and projections (to .2000) of use of cereals for livestock feed in developing countries. Mink (1987) has addressed the use of corn in livestock feed and the future of the corn economy in Indonesia. The study focussed on current levels of corn use and likely future growth of corn-based livestock feeds in Indonesia. Despite the availability of the studies mentioned above, knowledge about aspects relating to supply of and demand for poultry feed in Bangladesh is rather limited. In particular, data on the present poultry population and poultry products, disaggregated by commercial and scavenging nature are not available in any of the studies mentioned aboveData source The study is largely based on information from secondary sources; BBS-Agricultural Censuses (1960; 1977; 1983/84; 1996) are the main sources of historical data on poultry population. FAO Yearbook (1997) is also a source in this respect. However, such information are supplemented by primary data generated from field surveys. A basic problem with the analysis of poultry population and feed trends relates to the lack of reliable and adequate data on their use by type of feed and by category of poultry output. In particular, the data on poultry population, dis aggregated by scavenging type and commercial farms in rural and urban Bangladesh are sparse. The commercial farms are the prime focus of the current analysis, as few scavenging birds are likely to have direct grain-feed requirements. The data on current poultry production system, generated by the field surveys, have been used. The data on various aspects such as feeding practices, feed requirements and farm size by type, collected from the surveys by Quasem (2001), have been used. A rapid market survey including a few key-informant interviews is also conducted. Data and information collected are, among others: (1) feeding requirements and practices of scavenging birds (2) proportion of scavenging and commercial birds (3) proportion of scavenging layers and broilers (4) proportion of commercial layers and broilers (5) average life span of various types of birds (6) average eggs produced by scavenging layers and commercial layers (7) average weight of live birds and meat produced by various types of birds (8) wheat consumed by scavenging birds (9) age and productive age of various birds, and (10) mortality rate of various types of birds.

Source of Information: Bangladesh Journal Agric. Econs. XXIV, 1&2(2001) 1-19

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

Under the scenario of trend growth rate of poultry population and commercial farms taken as equal to current population growth rate, the Trend Analysis Approach projects the total grains as 683, 740, 801 and 867 thousand metric tons, for these years respectively. The use of grain for poultry feeds for the base year 2000 is estimated to be 631 thousand metric tons. Of this, wheat accounts for 22 and maize accounts for 78 per cent. The requirement of wheat as poultry feed is only 8 per cent of the total domestic production while the requirement of maize as poultry feed is nearly 8 times its domestic production. Our field survey suggests that one of the major reasons of maize production gaining no popularity in Bangladesh relates to lack of incentives on the part of the cultivators. Some motivational steps and market interventions are, therefore, needed in this respect.

Knowledge Management: Journal