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Long-term Assessment of Rice Production Scenario in Bangladesh: a Macro Dynamics

M. SHAHE ALAM
Agricultural Economics Division, Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), Gazipur-1701, Bangladesh.

M. A. ISLAM
Agricultural Economics Division, Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), Gazipur-1701, Bangladesh.

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

Despite high pressure of population on land and other natural resources, Bangladesh has made remarkable progress in food production over the last three and a half decades. The shrinking trend in land availability for crop production is another challenge ahead of the economy. The declining trend in cultivable land was quite sharp in the period of 1990 to 2005. Although the population has doubled, cereal food production has increased in the range of 100-125% during this period. The progress is the result of development and dissemination of modern high-yielding rice and wheat varieties supported by favourable public policies. There has been impressive technological advancement in the rice sector. Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) made substantial contribution in the recent past and a total of 59 modern high yielding rice varieties (HYVs) suitable for different production ecologies have been released after independence in 1972. Although the progress in variety development was slower during the seventies and eightees, it was triggered up in the later decades and a quantum of achievement was made after 2000. The rate of varietal development was almost double in the last quarter of the decades compared to that made in the seventees. During the period of 1972 to 1980, the share of modern rice in total production was only 29%, but by the year 1985, it increased to 41% and jumped to nearly 90% by 2010 implying a highly impressive contribution of the diffusion of modern rice technologies in the overall supply of cereal foods in the country.

Keywords: Long-term assessment, Rice production scenario, Macro dynamics.

Location: Agricultural Economics Division, Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), Gazipur-1701, Bangladesh.

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Commodity: Rice

Objectives:

The specific objectives of the study were as follows:

To analyse the land use pattern for cereal food (rice) production and to document the changes in area devotion to rice production with respect to the technological advancement over time;
To understand the contribution of modern rice varieties towards maintaining stability in cereal food supply; and
To visualize the overall scenario in availability of cereal foods and understand the challenges ahead.

Methodology:

The present study used mainly the secondary data. As such, the required data were collected from different published and unpublished reports of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Directorate of Agricultural Extension, Household Income Expenditure Survey (HIES), Bangladesh Rice Research Institute and CIMMYT Bangladesh office. The collected data were then scrutinized and processed using appropriate computer software. Mainly descriptive statistics were employed in analyzing the data. Descriptive analysis was used with the aid of tabular technique to classify the generated data and to derive meaningful findings by employing mostly the measures of central dispersion (arithmetic mean, percentage and ratios, etc.).

Source of Information: Bangladesh J. Agril. Res. 38(2): 257-269, June 2013 ISSN 0258-7122

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

Rice is the main food crop of the country and the level of cereal food supply is largely dependent on rice availability. Because of population and income growth, the demand for cereal foods (especially for rice) is expected to rise by over 1.5% per annum for the next few decades (Hossain et al., 2009). The main factor of production i.e., land resource base is declining very alarmingly by up to one percent a year. Per capita availability of cultivable land has been declining over time and will reach to 0.05 ha in near future from about 0.064 ha in 2010. The continuation of such decline in availability of cultivable land will pose serious impact on the domestic production and supply of cereal foods. Nevertheless, there has been impressive achievement in technological development in the rice sector. Development and release of modern rice varieties took place at a higher rate during the later periods. Although the area coverage by modern rice varieties (MVs) during the seventees was quite low, in the later periods the dissemination got better momentum. The average coverage of modern rice varieties increased to almost 79% during 2009-10. The progress in the diffusion of modern rice technologies is the result of; i) development and dissemination of new highyielding rice varieties; ii) government support in the form of offering public policies like investment in irrigation and flood control, and iii) provision of subsidies on modern inputs and expansion of credit on easy terms etc. With the rapid adoption of the modern rice varieties at farm level, the total production of rice has been uplifted very amazingly. Although the share of modern rice in total production was only 29% in the mid-seventees, this share triggered up to nearly 90% by 2009 implying a highly impressive contribution of the diffusion of modern rice technologies in overall supply of cereal foods. With the technological advancement in the later decade, the yield of MV Boro increased substantially. The yield of MV Aman was slightly below 2.0 t/ha in the seventees, but had an increasing trend in the later periods probably due to the availability of new high yielding Aman varieties. The volume of food grain importation has been more than double in 2008 compared to that of some early periods. The per capita availability of cereal food grains has amazingly increased over the years. The development and rapid dissemination of the rice technologies during the aforesaid period have contributed much on the availability of cereal food grains in the country.

Knowledge Management: Journal