Agricultural Research Management Information System

Home
Research Summary
Search
About Us
- ARMIS
- Brochure
Contact Us
Report
User Request
Data Input
Help
- Operation Manual
  - PDF
  - Video
- Program Area & Commodity
We have reached 37600 number of research entries at this moment.

- Logout

Research Detail

Home
Research
Detail

A Dynamic Programming Model of Storagf, Release and Import of Food Grains

B. K.Bala
Professor
Dept. of Farm Power & Machinery, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh.

M.A. Sattar
Associatd Professor
Dept. of Farm Power & Machinery, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh

M.M.Huq
Associatd Professor
Dept. of Farm Power & Machinery, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The model was programmed in BASIC and had been applied to the foodgrain management system in Bangladesh. This model and program was designed to teach dynamic programming with application in grain storage management.

Keywords: Dynamic programming model, Storage, Release, Import of food grains

Location: BAU, Mymensingh

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Postharvest and Agro-processing

Non-commodity: Price behavior

Objectives:

To develop a dynamic programming model of food grain to provide maximum consumption benefit and minimize storage cost .

Methodology:

The decision process for foodgrain storage, release and import can be considered sequential in the sense that a decision made at this month will affect future 'decisions. For example, lf foodgrain is released in this month, less is staged and available for release in the next month of months. Similarly if foodgrain is imported and stored in this month, more foodgrain can be released in the next month or months. This type of sequential decisions can be best characterized by a dynamic programming model. The rnodel assumed twelve months period (one year) time horizon. At any time period, i, there are seven distinct , actions/decisions that can be taken for foodgrain storage, release and import( system. They are: l. storage only;2. release of 0.5 million tonnes of foodgrain only;3. release of 1.0 million tonnes fooodgrain only; 4. release of 1.5 million tonnes foodgrain only; 5. import of 0.5 million tonnes. of foodgrain and storage with the previous carryover stock; 6. import of 1.0 million tonnes of foodgrain and storage with the previous carryover stock and 7. import of I,5 million tonnes of foodgrain and storage with the previous carryover stock Some of these are not feasible for some of the states of 'a particular stage. For example, if the stock available is l.5 million tonnes, we will not release any grain or if the storage capacity is full we can not import any grain.At each stage or period· the state ·variable and net benefit are computed. The grain stock available for carryover at the beginning of each period depends on grain stock available for carryover in the previous period and.the decisions being made in. the last period. The net return in each period depends on the decision being made in that period and can simply be expressed as the consumption· benefit minus the cost of storage. We would like to find the best combinations of storage, release and import decisions that will maximize the total returns from 12 month periods. The price of foodgrains are lowest at the harvest and then gradually increases with storage time until the next harvest. The consumption benefit can be maximized by storing the grains during the off peak periods and then releasing foodgrains d ing the peaks of the price. The optimal decision is to be determined from a series of alternatives of storage, release and import policies for each of the twelve months of the year. Release or import is considered to be a multiple of 0.5 million tonnes of foodgrain. For example, from a stock level of 2 million tonnes in the month of April, we can opt for gne of the following: (i) releasing of 0.5 million tonnes with consuption benelt of 3M.5 million taka, (ii) no release or no import with a storage cost of 200 million taka, (ii) importation of 0.5 million tonnes of foodgrain with a storage cost of 250 million taka and (iv) importation of I million tonnes of fooodgrain with a storage cost of 300 million taka. The,optimal policy can be identified based on the Belrnan's principle of Optimality. An optimal policy has the property that whatever the initial state and optimal first decision may be, the remaining decisions constitute an optimal policy with regard to the state resulting from the first decision. ln essence the consumption benefit of the consumers is to be optimized and it is defined here as the product of the price differential between the actual price and the equilibrium price, and quantity of grain released from the public stock. The details of optimal path is shown in Table 2. The optimal path is same for all initial state. The simulated available foodgrain stock for optimal policy for the simulated period is shown in Fig. 3 and the optimum consumer benefit is 1633.5 million taka. The fluctuating price levels had peaks in the months of April, June and August and an amount of 1.5 million tonnes offoodgrain is to be released in each of these months whereas the price levels had the fluctuating bottom in the month of January, March and September and an amount of 1.5 million tonnes of foodgpin is to be importated in each of these months .

Source of Information: J. of Agril. Mach. & Mech. 2(l),1995 : 19-23 ISSN 1024-6290

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

A dynamic programming model of storage, release and import of foodgrain in Bangladesh is presented. The model has been programmed in BASIC suitable for micro computer. This model and program have been prepared for teaching dynamic programming to the agricultural engineering and industrial engineering students.

Knowledge Management: Journal