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Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation: Sustaining Rice Production in Bangladesh: Assessment Climatic Variability Effects on T. Aman Rice in Rajshahi and BARIsal Regions of Bangladesh-2014

Dr M Maniruzzaman
PSO
Irrigation and Water Management Division, BRRI, Gazipur-1701, bangladesh

Dr. Jatish C Biswas
CSO and Head
Soil Science Division, BRRI, Gazipur-1701, bangladesh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

A study was conducted to analyze trend of climatic variability and climate change and its impact on wet season rice production in selected areas of Bangladesh.Climate change and climatic variability were analyzed in regards to monsoon rice yield in selected areas of Bangladesh. Mean annual maximum temperature has been increased by 0.024°C/year for both drought prone Rajshahi and saline prone Barisal regions from 1971 to 2010 and mean minimum temperature showed a reducing trend for the same period. Maximum air temperature will be more than 35^oC in March through May due to climate change in future. Rice crop flowering at such high temperature will be sterile, resulting in severe yield reduction. Wheat crop is more vulnerable in which sterility develops at 30^oC. Monsoon average rainfall is declining in drought prone area, but increasing in saline prone area. In drought prone areas, monsoon crop suffer from water stress, but water logging is wide spread in saline prone study site. Sunshine hours at Rajshahi region were decreasing, but in Barisal region it was increasing and then became static. If maximum temperature increases by 3% i.e. 1^oC, wet season rice yield will be reduced by 35% i.e. 0.84 t/ha in Rajshahi areas. Our analyses indicate that minimum temperature is the dominant factor for grain yield reduction in Rajshahi region, whereas rainfall was the influencing factor for yield reduction in Barisal region.

Keywords: Climatic variability, Climate change, Drought prone area

Location: Rajshahi and Barisal region

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Risk Management in Agriculture

Non-commodity: Rice

Objectives:

To analyze trend of climatic variability and climate change and its impact on wet season rice production in selected areas of Bangladesh.

Methodology:

Temporal trend is the gradual change in a variable at a specific location with time. In this study, temperature, rainfall and sunshine duration obtained from BMD (Rajshahi and Khepupara, Patuakhali weather stations only) were used. The normalized temperature and rainfall were calculated based on 30 years (1983-2012) data set by averaging daily values. Future climatic changes were determined by imposing projected values of IPCC (2013) for temperature and Rahman et al. (2012) for rainfall. Monthly total rainfalls for the last 30 years were also used for calculating standard precipitation index (SPI) based on 1-month, 3-month and 6-month basis for drought analysis (McKee et al., 1993). Temporal trends were generated for each meteorological station using time series data. The results from each of the interpolation techniques were graphically presented and linkages were established with crop yield variations. Vulnerability of an agricultural crop depends on timing, duration and magnitude of a hazard, type and growing stage of a crop, physical settings of an area, and different types of capacities available to respond. In this study, quantitative assessment of vulnerability of T. Aman rice was made by comparing the deviation of crop yields with the deviation of climatic parameters.

Source of Information: Proceedings of the BRRI Annual Review for 2014, BRRI, Gazipur-1701, bangladesh

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

1.

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

In Barisal region, daily average maximum temperature during April to June was more than 32^oC, which is critical for wheat, pea, mustard and tomato cultivation. In climate change situations by 2050 (IPCC, 2013), maximum temperature will be more than 35^oC during March to May indicating unsuitability for cultivation of those crops unless heat tolerant varieties are developed and disseminated among the farmers.In Rajshahi region, average rainfall during monsoon was declining, whereas in Barisal region it was increasing. It also indicates that in Rajshahi region, T. Aman rice suffers from water shortage and sustainability depends upon supplemental irrigation. On the other hand, in Barisal region, waterlogged condition may be wider and T. Aman crop productivity may be hampered.

Knowledge Management: Report/Proceedings