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A Dynamic Programming Model of Storage, Release and Import of Foodgrains

B. K.Bala
Professor
Dept. of Farm Power & Machinery, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh.

M.A Satter
Associate Professor
Dept. of Farm Power & Machinery, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh

M.M.Huq
Associate Professor
Dept. of Farm Power & Machinery, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

A dynamic programming model for storage, release and import of food grains is presented. The model was programmed in BASIC and has been applied to the food grain management system in Bangladesh. This model and program are designed to teach dynamic programming with application in grain storage management.

Keywords: Storage, Dynamic, Foodgrains

Location: Dept. of Farm Power & Machinery, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh.

Start Date: 00-00-0000

End Date: 00-00-0000

Program Area: Postharvest and Agro-processing

Non-commodity: Adoption of technology

Objectives:

To provide maximum consumption benefit and minimize storage cost and to program it in BASIC suitable for micro computer for teaching dynamic programming.

Methodology:

The decision process for foodgrain storage, release and import can be considered sequential in the sense that a decision made at this month will affect future decisions. For example, lf foodgrain is released in this month, less is stored and available for release in the next month o( months. Similarly if food grain is imported and stored in this month, more foodgrain can be released in the next month or months. This type of sequential decisions can be best characterised by a dynamic programming model. The model assumed twelve months period (one year) time horizon. At any time period, i, there are seven distinct , actions/decisions that can be taken for food grain storage, release and import system. They are: l. storage only; 2. release of 0.5 million tonnes of foodgrain only;3. release of 1.0 million tonnes fooodgrain only; 4. release of 1.5 million tonnes foodgrain only; 5. import of 0.5 million tonnes. of foodgrain and storage with the previous carryover stock; 6. import of 1.0 million tonnes of foodgrain and storage with the previous carryover stock and 7. import of I,5 million tonnes of foodgrain and storage with the previous carryover stock. Some of these are not feasible for some of the states of a particular stage. For example, if the stock available is l.5 million tonnes, we will not release any grain or if the storage capacity is full we can not import any grain. The decision process can be pictorially represented. At each stage or period the state variable and net benefit are computed. The grain stock available for carryover at the beginning of each period depends on grain stock available for carryover in the previous period and.the decisions being made in the last period. The net return in each period depends on the decision being made in that period and can simply be expressed as the consumption benefit minus the cost of storage. We would like to find the best combinations of storage, release and import decisions that will maximize the total returns from 12 month periods. The price of foodgrains are lowest at the harvest and then gradually increases with storage time until the next harvest. The consumption benefit can be maximized by storing the grains during the off peak periods and then releasing foodgrains during the peaks of the price. The optimal decision is to be determined from a series of alternatives of storage, release and import policies for each of the twelve months of the year. Release or import is considered to be a multiple of 0.5 million tonnes of foodgrain. For example, from a stock level of 2 million tonnes in the month of April. The optimal path is same for all initial state. The simulated available foodgrain stock for optimal policy for the simulated period and the optimum consumer benefit is 1633.5 million taka. The fluctuating price levels had peaks in the months of April, June and August and an amount of 1.5 million tonnes of foodgrain is to be released in each of these months whereas the price levels had the fluctuating bottom in the month of January, Murch and September and an amount of 1.5 million tonnes of food grain is to be imported in each of these months

Source of Information: J. of Agril. Mach. & Mech. 2(l),1995: 19-23 ISSN 1024-6290

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

A dynamic programming model of storage, release and import of foograin in Bangladesh is presented. The model has been programmed in BASIC suitable for micro computer. This model and program have been prepared for teaching dynamic programming to the agricultural engineering and industrial engineering students.

Knowledge Management: Journal