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Computer Modelling of the Rural Energy System and of Co2 Emissions for Bangladesh

B. K. Bala
Department of Farm Power and Machinery, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh.

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

We present projections of rural energy supply and demand and assess the contributions to global warming. The output of dynamic system model is used in the LEAP model and overall energy balances are then compiled using a bottom-up approach. Biomass fuels constitute the major energy sources for rural people. A major share of the fuel is consumed for cooking using traditional stoves which have an efficiency less than 10%. Most of the biomass comes from crop wastes. Conservative estimates show tremendous pressure on rural forests for fuelwood. As the result, there is over cutting of rural ofrests resulting in environmental degradation. Bangladesh is responsible for a small fraction of the total anthropogenic contribution of CO₂ but could be seriously affected by climatic change. Energy planning for sustainable development with LEAP is made more effective by using a complementary dynamic system.

Keywords: Computer Modelling, Rural Energy system, CO2 emissions

Location: Department of Farm Power and Machinery, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh.

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Farm Mechanization

Commodity: Product development

Objectives:

To the potential of LEAP with proper data inputs as a tool for planning for sustainable development in Bangladesh.

Methodology:

Computer Modelling: Several researchers (3-5) reported various methodological approaches in the energy field. Mail (6) reported a real success story for a system-dynamics mode for national energy policy planning; this model was also employed to address the effects of energy use on global warming (7) . Luhanga et al (14) and Sinyak and Nagano (15) demonstrated the otential of LEAP model for energy planning and analysing different measures to mitigate global warning.Leap structure: LEAP has four main program groups: Energy Scenarios (ES), Aggregation (A), the Environmental Database (EDS), and a Fuel Chain (FC), ES consists of closely-linked programs on demand, transformation, biomass, environment and evaluation. A is used to display multi area results from analyses carried out in different areas. EDB can be used either as a stand-alone reference tool or linked to the rest of LEAP to calculate automatically emissions and other environmental inputs. The demand program computes energy needs over time by multiplying activity measures by their unit energy requirements. Both the activities and unit energy requirements may vary with time. All biomass programs include mass balances. Only wood calculations are described here. The calculations for other biomass resources involve a simple balancing of supplies and requirements.

Application of LEAP to the Bangladesh rural energy system: The overall balances for the rural system in Bangladesh are compiled using a bottom-up approach. This approach starts by looking at various levels of useful energy for specified functions. This procedure is followed to the point where the total energy requirement in to be portrayed. The demand program computes the energy needs and the biomass program calculates the biomass supplies and requirements. Energy-demand data are presented in a four- level tree hierarchy to obtain an energy scenario for the LEAP system. At level 1, the economy is divided into Sectors such as agriculture and rural population. At level 2, each sector is divided into Subsectors such as rice, wheat, jute and sugarcane. At level 3, each subsector is divided into end uses such as irrigation and cultivation, finally at level 4, each end use is further divided into Devices such as tractor traditional plow.

Source of Information: Energy Vol- 22, No- 10, Pp: 999-1003, 1997 PH: S0360-5442 (97) 00023-x

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

Energy is needed to meet requirements for subsistence and economic development and to raise the quality of life. A judicious approach for energy utilization in different sectors of the economy is essential. Simulation results show that the major supply source is biomass. Bangladesh contributes a very small amount of CO2 on a per capita basis but could be seriously affected by climate change. Deforestation and other changes in land use are important contributions to increased CO2 emissions in Bangladesh. The emphasis in the country for lowering CO2 emissions should be on:(1) more efficient use of non-commercial as well as commercial energy; and (ii) reduction in deforestation and a substantial increase in afforestation. LEAP may be used to estimate future energy supplies and demands. It can also be used to assess energy-planning strategies and the effects of energy use on global warming. LEAP in combination with a system-dynamics model is more effective than LEAP alone for energy and environmental planning for usutainable development.

Knowledge Management: Journal