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Validation and Performance Analysis of Fibgrow Dynamic Simulation Model for Jute Growth at Impacts of Changing Climate

Dr. Md. Mujibur Rahman
Chief Scientific Officer
Jute Farming Systems Division Bangladesh Jute Research Institute Manik Mia Avenue Dhaka-1207

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The article presents the validation and performance analysis of the developed dynamic simulation model FIBGROW on jute production at changing climatic impacts. Threefold validation methods have deployed to compare the model simulated values with the experimentally observed data, model simulated values with the national statistics and simulated management strategies with the reported values. The agreements between the simulated and observed or reported values showed reasonable good competencies. Simulated values of crop management strategies of plant density, sowing date, and their interactions and the predicted results agree well with the reported values which proved the performances of the model are good. Developed FIBGROW model is an excellent tool for predicting potential yields and management strategies on jute production at impacts of changing climate.

Keywords: Dynamic model FIBGROW, Performance analysis, Model validation and Management strategies.

Location:

Start Date: 00-00-2004

End Date: 00-00-2008

Program Area: Resource Development and Management

Commodity: Jute

Objectives:

To validate, performance and management strategies analysis of jute growth FIBGROW model for fibre production at impacts of climate change in Bangladesh.

Methodology:

Threefold validation procedures have deployed to analysis the performances of the developed FIBGROW model (1) simulated dry matters are compared with the experimental values, (2) simulated fibre yield are compared with the national statistics and (3) simulated management options compared with the reported results of different studies. Field experiments were conducted in the Central Research Station (CRS) of Bangladesh Jute Research Institute (BJRI), Jagir, Manikgonj (56 km north-west of Dhaka metropolitan city), Bangladesh to determine biomass of the different components of jute plant during its growth. Data on plant height (cm), plant base diameter (mm), leaf area development (cm2), leaf area index (LAI), plant total green weight (g/plant), green and dry matter weights (g/plant) for root, bark, stick and leaves as well as the plant total dry matter weights (g/plant) were collected at an interval of 10 days starting from the plant age of 20 days after emergence and continued until 120 days of plant age. Also final weights of jute fibre (kg/plot) and jute sticks (kg/plot) were recorded. The green components of the jute plants were dried in an electric oven at a temperature of 90 oC for 24 h and weights of the components measured with an electronic balance (Model XL-6100, accuracy ±0.01g, Denver Instruments, Bohemia, NY, USA). The leaf area of the jute plant was measured with an electronic leaf area meter (Model L1-COR, Inc., Lincoln, NB, USA). Daily weather data obtained from a weather station at the experimental site. Two sets of field experiments were conducted in each jute growing season in 2006 and 2007. Experimental data for two varieties of jute (Corchorus capsularis (cv. CVL-1) and Corchorus olitorius (cv. O-9897)) were collected based on split plot experimental design. Details of the experiments are given in Rahman (2010).

Source of Information: Ban. J. Jute Fib. Res. 2014, 31 (1-2): 35-47

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

The performance analysis of the important aspects are examined and compared the model simulated values with the experimented, observed and national statistics available. The model was validated using threefold simulation process of dry-matter, potential fibre yield for important jute growing areas and important management strategies of jute production systems. Developed model FIBGROW of jute growth simulated the dry-matters, fibre production and jute production management strategies very well. The model FIBGROW is an excellent tool for the potential production simulation of jute fibre crop in the changing climatic condition. The development procedure of the model FIBGROW is well explained in the articles “Development, Description and Sensitivity Analysis of FIBGROW dynamic simulation model for jute growth at impacts of changing climate” and showed competency in the procedure followed. Predicted climate change impacts on fibre production are presented in the article “Simulation and Application of FIBGROW dynamic growth model at impacts of climate change on jute production in Bangladesh” in this series.

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