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Simulation and Application of Fibgrow Dynamic Growth Model at Impacts of Climate Change on Jute Production in Bangladesh

Dr. Md. Mujibur Rahman
CSO
Jute Farming Systems Division Bangladesh Jute Research Institute Manik Mia Avenue Dhaka-1207

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The article presents the impacts of climate change on jute production in Bangladesh. Jute growth model FIBGROW is used for the simulation of the fibre yield in climate changes scenarios. Sole effects as well as the interaction effects of prime climatic parameters, solar radiation, maximum-minimum temperatures and concentration of CO2 are considered in the study. Sixteen treatment combinations of temperature increases (0^oC, +1^oC, +2^oC, and +3^oC) and solar radiation changes (0%, +5%, +10%, and -5%) and twenty treatment combinations of CO₂ concentrations (390, 440, 490, 540 and 640 ppm) with the increase in average temperatures (0^oC, +1^oC, +2^oC and +3^oC) were considered for fibre yield simulation. Increased fibre yield was simulated for the higher solar radiation and elevated CO₂ concentrations for 1^oC increase in temperature but fibre yield decreased for the temperature rise of 2^oC and 3^oC. Fibre yields were also simulated decade wise climatic variabilities up to 2100 AD using the climate change prediction scenarios of IPCC and different GCMs. Fibre yields of jute are more or less same up to 2030. Simulated fibre yields for the predicted climate change scenarios showed a clear tendency of decreasing yield after 2030, which eventually falls down to 57.54% at 2100.

Keywords: Climate change, Jute production, Simulation and Reduction of fibre yield.

Location:

Start Date: 00-00-2004

End Date: 00-00-2008

Program Area: Risk Management in Agriculture

Commodity: Jute

Objectives:

To predict the future climate change impacts on jute production in Bangladesh using the model FIBGROW

Methodology:

The model FIBGROW takes into account the changes in solar radiation, maximum, minimum and average temperatures by default. The changes in [CO₂] are incorporated in the model FIBGROW as a growth multiplier of [CO₂] i.e., growth rate multiplier of jute plant as a function of [CO₂]. Relationship between PLMX and the [CO₂] growth multiplier is: where C stands for concentration of CO₂, [CO₂], subscript 0 for base (2006 value: 390 ppm), PLMX is the maximum rate of photosynthesis for single leaf, 0 for base and x for new (changed) values and β is about 0.8 for C₃ crops. Average, maximum and minimum temperatures considered for the climate change impacts on jute production are shown .Temperature change scenario for climate change. Parameter Base year (2006) Future Temperature Average Temperature (oC) 29.02 29.5 30.5 31.5 32.5 33.5 34.5 35.5 Minimum Temperature (oC) 24.79 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Maximum Temperature (oC) 33.26 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 Future change of solar radiation is considered for simulation of jute production as presented in the table 2. Table 2 Solar radiation change scenario for climate change Parameter Base year (2006) Future solar radiation Solar radiation (MJm-2d-1) 12.74 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 The consequences of high [CO₂] on crops are simulated by incorporating PLMX as a function of the ratio of new [CO2] and [CO2] level in 2006. PLMX values along with the increase of [CO₂] are presented in the table Carbon dioxide concentration and PLMX values Base year (2006) Future CO₂ concentration CO₂concentration (ppm) 390 440 490 540 590 640 PLMX (kg CO₂ ha-1h^-1) 69 77 83 89 94 103.92 As both temperature and solar radiation are simultaneously affected by the climate change and both of these are important for fibre yield prediction, the interaction of these two parameters was studied taking 1, 2 and 3^oC increment of temperature with –5, 5, and 10% increment of solar radiation. Increased temperature reduces the fibre yield, but [CO₂] increment is beneficiary to the C₃ plant like jute, hence the interaction effect of these two is important. For 1, 2 and 3^oC rise of temperature and 440, 490, 540, and 640 ppm of [CO₂], the interaction effects on jute fibre production were simulated. Fibre yield prediction for decade wise climate change scenarios up to the end of this century (2100 AD) have also conducted using FIBGROW model .Decade wise temperature, solar radiation and concentration of CO2 changes for climate change Climate Change Parameters Year 2006 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Maximum Temperature (oC) 33.26 34.01 34.76 35.51 36.26 37.00 37.76 38.50 39.25 40.00 Minimum Temperature (oC) 24.79 25.48 26.17 26.86 27.55 28.24 28.93 29.62 30.31 31.00 Solar Radiation (MJm-2d-1) 12.74 13.55 14.35 15.16 15.97 16.77 16.97 17.77 19.19 20 CO2 concentration (ppm) 390 406.67 423.33 440 456.67 473.33 490 506.67 523.33 540

Source of Information: Bangladesh J. Jute Fib. Res. 2014, 31 (1-2): 49-63

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

Sole effects as well as interactions among the prime climatic parameters of solar radiation, temperature and CO₂ concentration at different combinations were evaluated using FIBGROW model. Temperature affects the fibre yield while concentrations of CO₂ and solar radiation have positive impacts. Elevated concentrations of CO₂ and increase in solar radiation level are dominant for low level of temperature rise (up to 1^oC) and the reverse is true for high level of temperature rise (more than 1^oC). For the climate change scenario from 2000 to 2100, the effect of temperature increase (1.5 ^oC maximum and 1.38 ^oC minimum) on yield is compensated by the effects of CO₂ concentration increase (33.33 volume parts per million) and solar radiation increase (1.61 MJm-2d-1) up to 2030. Later period from 2030 to 2100, the effect of temperature increase becomes dominant and the yield drops from 1910.35 kg ha-1 in 2030 to 811.15 kg ha^-1 in 2100. This model can be used to assess the climate change impacts on jute production systems for different climate change scenarios.

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