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Trend and Growth Analysis of Marine Fish Production in Bangladesh

M. Farhat Rahman Niaz
Department of Agricultural Statistics Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh

Tania Noor
Department of Agricultural Statistics Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh

Md. Farouq Imam
Department of Agricultural Statistics Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The study based on time series marine fish production data during the period of 1983- 1984 to 2007-2008 in Bangladesh. For this growth analysis six deterministic time series models are considered. The estimated best fitting models are the cubic, quadratic and quadratic model is appropriate for industrial marine fish production, artisanal marine fish production and total marine fish production in Bangladesh respectively. The study attempts to provide forecasts of marine fish production in Bangladesh for the year of 2008-09 to 2012-13. The magnitude of instability in marine fish production was attempted by computing the coefficient of variation (CV) and the percentage deviation from three years moving average values. The study revealed that the total marine fish production was observed to be relatively stable (CV being 31.85%) compared to the artisanal marine fish production (CV being 32.04%) and industrial marine fish (CV being 47.20%). For the three components of marine fish production the growth rates were different over different time points. The variation of the growth rates in industrial marine fish production was -21.6% to 13.12%, in artisanal marine fish production was 2.39% to 5.29% and in total marine fish production was 11.23% to 24.85% during the study period.

Keywords: Marine fish, Growth model, Instability, Production and Forecasting

Location: Bangladesh Agricultural University.

Start Date: 00-00-1983

End Date: 00-00-2008

Program Area: Resource Development and Management

Commodity: Marine fish

Objectives:

To measure the instability and growth rate
To estimate the best model of growth analysis using seven contemporary model selection criteria and forecast the marine fish production in Bangladesh.

Methodology:

The present study was conducted time series data of marine fish production in Bangladesh for the period 1983-84 to 2007-08. The data were collected from the various issues of Statistical Yearbook and Agricultural Statistics Yearbook of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. The models those are used to describe the behavior of variables that vary with respect to time are termed as growth model. This type of model is needed in a specific area and in a specific problem that depends on the type of growth that occurs in the time series data. In general growth models are mechanism rather than empirical ones. A mechanical growth models usually arises as a results of making assumptions about the type of growth. On the other hand, an empirical model is chosen empirically to approximate an unknown mechanistic model. Typically the empirical model is a polynomial of some suitable order. However in this study Linear, Logarithmic, Inverse, Quadratic, Cubic and Exponential growth models are considered. Model selection criteria & measures of instability: To identify the best model for a particular time series data the latest available diagnostic tools are R², Adjusted R², RSME, AIC, BIC, MAE and MAPPE. The measures of instability in time series data requires an explicate assumptions of what constitute the expectable and unacceptable components. A systematic component which can be predicted does not constitute instability and hence, it should be eliminated from data. The remaining unpredictable component represents the instability. Two methods, viz. moving average and trend fitting have been used in the literature to capture the predictable component. Here the preference is for three-year moving average since the form may more adequately keep in touch with influences on trend earnings, such as changing comparative advantage and policy changes. The estimate of the magnitude of instability in the time series data on productions has been attempt by computing the coefficient of variation (CV) and the percentage deviation from three-years moving average for each year.

Source of Information: Bangladesh J. Fish. Res., 13(1), 2009: 35-45

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

The analysis found that if the present growth rates continue then the industrial marine fish production, artisanal marine fish production and total marine fish production in Bangladesh in the year of 2012-2013 will be 59757.39 metric tons, 250612.53 metric tons and 463805.93 metric tons with approximately plus/minus 57687.53 metric tons, 347853.14 metric tons and 378880.43 metric tons respectively.

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