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Expert Elicitation for Estimating Varietal Adoption of Wheat in Bangladesh

M. A. RASHID
Principal Scientific Officer
Agricultural Economics Division, BARI, Gazipur.

TANVIR M. B. HOSSAIN
Senior Scientific Officer
Agricultural Economics Division, BARI, Gazipur.

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The study was undertaken to find out variety wise adoption rate of wheat in Bangladesh through expert elicitation procedure. Many varieties have been developed by WRC but in details of varietal information and adoption information database was not developed which is very important and valuable for the scientist and policy planner. This study through expert elicitation for constructing detail varietal development and adoption database is timely and necessary for the research institute. From all over the Bangladesh 14 experts was invited to share their valuable knowledge and experience on wheat cultivation and adoption in the country. The average age of the experts were 54 yrs and average experience on wheat adoption was 22.65 yrs. The wheat expert informed that 13 major varieties are adopted by the farmers in the recent year(2013-14). Among those varieties, BARI Gom 24 (Prodip) covered highest cultivated area (186026 ha) which shared 41.03% of total wheat cultivated area. BARI Gom 21 (Shatabdi), BARI Gom 26 and BARI Gom 23 (Bijoy) ranked 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th position according to the share of cultivated area covered. The seed production information showed that BADC the only wheat seed producer supplied 24912.60 mt of wheat seed in the year 2013-14. The trend of seed production by different wheat variety revealed that over the period 2010-14, the seed production of BARI Gom 24 (Prodip) increased and BARI Gom 21 (Shatabdi) decreased. Increased seed production trend of Prodip variety leaded to highest adopted area of that variety. The main reason behind highest adopted area of Prodip variety was it’s very attractive attributes like high yield, big spike, large grain and lodging tolerance character. Although the Prodip covered highest area but other newly developed variety like BARI Gom 25, BARI Gom 26, BARI Gom 27 and BARI Gom 28 were the most promising varieties which showed increasing adoption path among the expert. These varieties have very good potentiality due to having short duration, tolerance to terminal heat stress, tolerant to salinity and lodging attributes. Satisfying higher demand for wheat consumption and ensuring food security through providing alternative to rice are the major concerning issue of the policy planner and the scientist

Keywords: Expert elicitation,Varital adoption, Wheat

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End Date:

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Commodity: Wheat

Objectives:

To find out variety wise adoption rate of wheat in Bangladesh through expert elicitation procedure

Methodology:

The main approach is to assemble relevant information and data of most recent year from multiple sources. This study collected time series data from national data sources i.e Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Department of Agricultural Extension. This study heavily collected for varietal development information from Wheat Research Centre (WRC), of Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute. The collected varietal information were sourced from different annual research report of WRC and BARI, Handbook of BARI developed crop varieties and technologies. The authors of this study gathered very valuable information from scientist consultation and expert elicitation (EE) workshop.Wheat is grown all over the country sporadically. In spite of that there are some districts where wheat cultivation share is significantly large. Higher wheat cultivation shared district were grouped in to four zones i.e Rajshahi, Rangpur, Jessore and Barisal . These four zones covered 94% of total wheat cultivation area of Bangladesh..

Source of Information: Annual Research Report, AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS DIVISION, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute Joydebpur, Gazipur-1701 August, 2015

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Achievement/Findings:

Farmers of Bangladesh cultivated wheat on 4,53,421 ha of cultivated land and produced 13,75,270 mt of wheat in the year 2014. The average yield of wheat was 3.03 mt/ha. The increasing trend of wheat production couldn’t keep pace with increase demand of wheat for consumption due to increase population and changing food habit of the national. To meet the national demand and ensuring food security the country imports wheat every year with 11.52% of growth rate. The country has favorable wheat cultivation environment in the 4 cultivation zones i.e Rangpur, Rajshahi, Jessore and Barisal.

Knowledge Management: Report/Proceedings