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Evaluation of Adaptation Practices in the Agriculture Sector of Bangladesh: an Ecosystem Based Assessment

Md. Arfanuzzaman
Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), House-10, Road-16a, Gulshan-1, Dhaka-1212, Bangladesh;

Nabir Mamnun
Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), House-10, Road-16a, Gulshan-1, Dhaka-1212, Bangladesh;

Md. Syful Islam
Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), House-10, Road-16a, Gulshan-1, Dhaka-1212, Bangladesh;

Tanzina Dilshad
Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), House-10, Road-16a, Gulshan-1, Dhaka-1212, Bangladesh;

Md. Abu Syed
Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), House-10, Road-16a, Gulshan-1, Dhaka-1212, Bangladesh;

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

Climate changes was imposed in differential impacts on Bangladesh in the form of sea level rise, extreme events, and variability, which has enormous economic, environmental and social cost. Such impacts were assorted across the ecosystems of the Southwest, Northwest and Central region of the country. Among the different sectors, agriculture is comparatively more vulnerable to climate change impacts. In order to reduce the climate change induced loss and damage, a series of adaptation options have been being practiced by the people at the local level for many years, but the effectiveness, profitability, and sustainability of such adaptation options were still not too well investigated or understood. From this backdrop, the study intends to identify, prioritize and evaluate the adaptation options in the agriculture of different ecosystems of Bangladesh. It was found that the economic gain of adopting rice prawn farming, replantation of rice, and saline tolerant and short duration rice varieties were much higher than the other adaption options. Through investing $10 in such adaptation options, $22, $4, $2 and $2 net return will be provided, respectively. Unavailability and less affordability were impeding the promotion of some effective adaption options, which require more attention from policy makers, while further research, demonstration and capacity building of the farmers will reduce vulnerability and build resilience.

Keywords: Agriculture; Adaptation evaluation; Economics of climate change; Climate vulnerability; Ecosystem based assessment

Location: Bagerhat, Kushtia, and Shariatpur district of Bangladesh

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Knowledge Management

Non-commodity: Adoption and mitigation technology

Objectives:

The overall objective of this study is to evaluate the existing adaptation practices and their economic sustainability in the agriculture sector of Bangladesh in the face of climate change impacts and vulnerability. The specific objectives are:

(1) To identify and prioritize the existing adaptation practices in the agriculture of different ecosystems of Bangladesh;

(2) To assess the effectiveness of each adaptation option to minimize loss and damage in addition to negative externality of such adaptation measures;

(3) To evaluate the economic viability of prioritized adaptation options;

(4) To define the most sustainable adaptation option for the agriculture in the face of climate change impacts.

Methodology:

Study Areas: The threats and impacts of climate change were multifaceted, multi-dimensional and multi-sectoral in Bangladesh. Thus, focus was given particularly in three selected districts, which represent three different ecosystems (coastal saline/surge prone areas, drought prone and riverine flood plain areas) in the Southwest, Northwest and Central part of the country. For each of the ecosystems, one case study district has been selected. With 2⁰C mean global temperature rise since pre-industrial levels, the combined effects of changes in major river flows, sea level rise (SLR), subsidence and local precipitation and evapotranspiration changes, results in the following impacts in study districts: Bagerhat—increase in salinity levels (by 0.5 to 2 Parts Per Thousand) and duration (>1 PPT) doubles in northern part of district (Atharobanki and Madhumati Rivers); Kushtia—increase in monsoon and post-monsoon flows but little change in dry season flows due to siltation at Gorai River mouth; Shariatpur—average monsoon flood level increases by about 0.2–0.5m and duration above danger level increases by about 25 days;

Methodology and Data: The study follows both quantitative and qualitative research methods to evaluate the adaptation options. The field research activities in the study areas considered primary data collection from the field to reflect farmers’ perceptions regarding impacts and vulnerabilities in their production system and to identify the existing adaptation options which were being practiced at the local level agriculture. Two main methods were employed: questionnaire surveys and focus group discussions (FGDs). Questionnaire surveys were conducted with randomly selected farmers in the study areas using a semi-structured questionnaire. The sample size was 300 with 100 in each of the study areas. FGDs were carried out to have a greater understanding on climate change impacts and vulnerability in the local level and to validate the adaptation practices that emerged from the questionnaire survey. In total, nine FGDs were conducted with three in each of the study areas. The existing adaption options in the agriculture sector against the climate change impacts and vulnerabilities that came out from the questionnaire surveys were shortlisted and prioritized based on the opinion of local communities and experts based on their competency to minimize the climate change impacts and economic loss. The shortlisted adaptation options were discussed with stakeholders and experts in a national level consultation workshop. The stakeholders and experts prioritized and ranked adaption options based on some specific criteria. The criteria for prioritization were effectiveness, external effects, availability, accessibility, affordability, and profitability/socio-economic gain. Finally, the prioritized adaptation options have been evaluated through cost benefit analysis, and adaptation decision matrix (ADM). In order to also carry out the cost benefit and economic analysis, data including price of different varieties, chemical and fertilizers, total production cost, loss and damage, and revenue were collected in quantitative form and then cost, benefit and other components were estimated. Finally, the ADM was prepared based on the key findings of each adaptation analysis. Here, ADM was used to evaluate the relative effectiveness and costs of adaptation options as well as providing the economic criterion of policy intervention in the areas of national and regional adaptation planning.

Source of Information: Climate, 2016, 4(1), 11, ISSN 2225-1154

Article Link (Online Journal): http://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/4/1/11/pdf

Funding Source:

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

It is evident that climate change adaptation practices have some costs and also fuel the cost of production in the agriculture sector, which may not be always affordable to the poor and marginal farmers of Bangladesh and other climate vulnerable lesser-developed and smaller island countries of the world. Though farmers of Bangladesh have made very insignificant contribution to causing climate change; however, they were experienced multiple and compounded climate stresses, variability and climate induced natural disasters in the agriculture sector as well as other sectors of the economy. Here, the agriculture sector is more susceptible because of small scale farming systems, low capacity/capital of farmers, weak technical efficiency, lack of large scale investment and presence of paradoxes of bumper harvest. The findings of this study can be used for calling out for other countries with similar climate change impacts, but, in such cases, adaptation options were suggested to evaluate economically as a prerequisite. Finally, to promote adaptations in agriculture and increase the sectoral productivity and reduce climate induced loss and damage under different ecosystems, following the steps below will be helpful for Bangladesh and other countries with similar context: (1) Mainstreaming climate change adaptation in national levels through sustainable development policies and strategies were suggested for fostering ecosystem based adaptation. (2) Building partnerships with local and international organizations for the implementation of regional agriculture development programs and integrating adaption plants with it. (3) Developing effective community based and participatory early warning systems and early action steps to reduce loss and damage. (4) Strengthening financial instruments (e.g., climate risk insurance, climate change adaptation clearing houses, soft loans for poor and marginal farmers) for climate change adaptation. (5) Building capacity (institutional governance, infrastructure and human resources) and raising awareness to increase understanding of climate change in the agriculture sector. (6) Carrying out more research to generate evidence based knowledge in the ecosystem based agricultural adaptations. (7) Promoting and availing ecosystem based adaption options in the least costly way. (8) Defining extreme event induced critical moments to reduce the severity of loss and damage. (9) Promoting juvenile prawn farming in the local level to ensure the availability in the adaptation period. (10) Ensuring the availability of agriculture input such as saline and drought prone varieties, chemical and fertilizer in the marketplace during critical climate moments and adaptation period as well. So that, farmers can adapt quickly and effectively. (11) Carrying out extensive research to improve the Short duration and saline tolerant rice variety. So that requirement of using extra fertilizer and chemical will be reduced. As a result overall cost of production, and land and environmental degradation will be declined. (12) Making the agriculture inputs such as saline and drought prone variety, chemical and fertilizer affordable and accessible in the marketplace. So that farmers can take the adaption decision fastly during the critical moments. Arrangement of soft loan can be effective such case. (13) Intensifying the assessment of disaster risk, preparation and implementation of preparedness, responses and recovery plans. Thus, in order to enhance the adaptive capacity and resilience building mentioned above, national level policy support is required in the agriculture sector. As per the IPCC’s predictions, future impacts of climate change will be more devastating in Bangladesh as well as in other low lying small island nations. Thus, the study calls for national level support in ecosystem based adaptations. Otherwise, in the future, farmers will not be encouraged to invest in adaptations during climate induced critical moments. Moreover, a mix of actions coordinated at international, national and regional levels would also be required to build resilience and reduce vulnerability in the agriculture sector of Bangladesh. Technological advancement can reduce the climate change impacts more effectively and build robust resilience in the agriculture sector. Invention and promotion of affordable technology and climate resilient farming systems were also required to drastically reduce the loss and damage from the agriculture sector.

Knowledge Management: Journal