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Studies on Agro-climatic Parameters of Ganges River Floodplain and Its Long-term Trend Analysis Using “makesens” Model

M. A. Rahman
Senior Scientific Officer (SSO)
Agricultural Engineering Division, Bangladesh Institute of Nuclear Agriculture, Mymensingh, Bangladesh

A. A. Sarkar
Director (Admin & S.S.)
Bangladesh Institute of Nuclear Agriculture, Mymensingh, Bangladesh

N. N. Karim
Principal Scientific Officer
Agricultural Engineering Section, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

An agro-climatic study was conducted at Magura district of Ganges River Floodplain area with 30 (1981-2010) years climatic data (relative humidity, temperature, rainfall, sunshine hour and wind speed) to evaluate long-term trend and to predict the climatic variability for the year 2020, 2025 and 2030. Maximum relative humidity increased at the rate of 0.14% year-1 at third decade in the month of February. The predicted scenarios of maximum relative humidity will be maximum in January. Minimum relative humidity decreased at the rate of 0.152% year-1 in the month of August. The predicted scenarios of minimum relative humidity will be minimum in February. Maximum temperature decreased at the rate of 0.02o C year-1 and changed 0.51o C in the month of January from 1981 to 2010. Maximum temperature increased at the rate of 0.05o C year-1 and changed 1.50o C in the month of August from 1981 to 2010. Maximum temperature was observed 36.25o C at third decade in April 2012. Maximum temperature will be 35.40, 35.59, 35.78o C in May in the year 2020, 2025 and 2030, respectively. Minimum temperature decreased at the rate of 0.036o C year-1 and changed 1.04o C in the of month January from 1981 to 2010. Minimum temperature increased at the rate of 0.07o C year-1 and changed 1.91o C in the month of April from 1981 to 2010. Minimum temperature will be minimum in January for the prediction year 2020, 2025 and 2030. Rainfall decreased at the rate of 0.09 cm year-1 in May and increased at the rate 0.02 cm year-1 in July. Maximum rainfall will occur in July for the prediction year 2020, 2025 and 2030. Sunshine duration decreased at the rate of 0.071 hr year-1 in October and increased at the rate of 0.077 hr year-1 in June. Maximum sunshine duration will occur in April. Wind speed decreased significantly in every month over the years. It was observed that the maximum decreased rate of wind speed was 0.073 m-1 sec-1 year-1 in July. Minimum wind speed will occur in November.

Keywords: Agro-climatic parameters, Climate change, Trend, Prediction, Magura

Location: Magura District, implemented by BINA

Start Date: 00-00-2011

End Date: 00-00-2012

Program Area: Crop-Soil-Water Management

Commodity: Command area development

Objectives:

To evaluate long-term trend for the year 2020, 2025 and 2030
To predict the climatic variability for the year 2020, 2025 and 2030

Methodology:

Experimental Site: Magura is a district in South-Western Bangladesh which includes the eastern part of the High Ganges River Floodplain (AEZ-11) and the western part of the Low Ganges River Floodplain (AEZ-12) in Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) of Bangladesh (BBS, 2011). It is a part of the Khulna division. It is bounded by Rajbari district to the north, Jessore and Narail districts to the south, Faridpur district to the east and Jhenaidah district to the west. This region is situated between 23°16′ to 23°40′ North and 89°15′ to 89°37′ East. It has four upazilas. They are Magura sadar upazila, Mohammadpur upazila, Shalikha upazila and Sreepur upazila. The study area covers about 1048 Km . The map of study area is shown. Data collection: Daily agro-climatic parameters like rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, maximum and minimum relative humidity, wind speed and sunshine duration of Faridpur and Jessore for a period of 30 years (1981-2010) were collected from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department. Daily agro-climatic parameters of Magura were prepared by the average value of Faridpur and Jessore data. Daily agro-climatic parameters were arranged month wise and then reduced to mean. Studies on agro-climatic parameters trend: The “MAKESENS” software was used to detect and estimate trends. This software is based on the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test for trends and the non-parametric Sen’s method for the magnitude of the trend . The advantage of the non-parametric method is that it is applicable for both monotonic and non-monotonic trends, and it can operate with missing data.

Source of Information: Bangladesh J. Nuclear Agric. 29: 113-126, 2013

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

1. Government

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

Studies on agro-climatic parameters trend The “MAKESENS” software was used to detect and estimate trends. This software is based on the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test for trends and the non-parametric Sen’s method for the magnitude of the trend . The advantage of the non-parametric method is that it is applicable for both monotonic and non-monotonic trends, and it can operate with missing data.

Knowledge Management: Journal