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Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Wheat and Maize Production in Bangladesh Using Infocrop Model

M. A. Hossain
4SSO
Irrigation and Water Management Division, BARI, Gazipur

M. M. Rahman
SO
ASICT Division, BARI, Gazipur

A. F. M. Tariqul Islam
SO
ASICT Division, BARI, Gazipur

S. K. Biswas
SSO
Irrigation and Water Management Division, BARI, Gazipur

A. R. Akanda
CSO
Irrigation and Water Management Division, BARI, Gazipur

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

Climate has been changing due to natural forcing. Climate factors such as temperature, rainfall, atmospheric carbon dioxide, solar radiation, etc. are closely linked with agricultural production. Rice, wheat and maize production are the major concern in recent years due to changing climatic conditions. Simulation study had been conducted to assess the climate change impacts on wheat and maize production in the major wheat and maize growing areas of Bangladesh and the effects of climate changes on the yield of wheat and maize have been assessed using crop growth model InfoCrop. The simulation was carried out to predict the yields of wheat and maize under different climatic trends of temperature and carbon dioxide concentration. The effect of temperature on the yield of wheat that is negative while of CO₂ is positive but temperature plays dominant role. Prediction was also made to predict the climate change impacts of wheat yields based on historical and IPCC climate change scenarios. From the simulation studies, it is found that wheat yield decreases from 3438 kg/ha in 2020 to 3125 kg/ha in 2050 and from 3358 kg/ha in 2020 to 2850 in 2050 kg/ha for historical and IPCC climatic change scenarios, respectively in Dinajpur region of Bangladesh. For this period the wheat yield decreases by 9.1% for historical trend and decreases by 15.12% for IPCC trend.

Keywords: InfoCrop model, Maize, Wheat, Phenology

Location: Dinajpur, Rajshahi and Jessore

Start Date: 00-00-2013

End Date: 00-00-2014

Program Area: Resource Development and Management

Commodity: Maize, Wheat

Objectives:

To predict climate scenarios (e.g, temperature, rainfall) for the year 2030, 2070 and 2100
To assess the climate change impact on wheat and maize production using lnfoCrop model
To compare crop model output with other available crop Models (DSSAT, APSIM)

Methodology:

Dinajpur, Rajshahi and Jessore were selected for conducting for the simulation study. The weather data was also collected from those selected locations. Wheat and maize were selected for simulation of climate change impacts on major wheat and maize growing areas of Bangladesh. Therefore, in order to get reliable results from model simulations, it is necessary to have the appropriate genetic coefficients for the elected cultivar. Genetic coefficients of selected crops were available in the InfoCrop model. For wheat genetic coefficient of sonalika variety is available in Infocrop model. So, this variety is selected for simulation study. InfoCrop is a decision support system based on crop models that has been developed by a network of scientists of Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) to provide a platform of scientists and extension workers to build their applications around it and to meet the goals of stakeholders need for information. These models were designed to simulate the effects of weather, soils, agronomic management, nitrogen, water and major pests on crop growth and yield, water and nitrogen management, and greenhouse gases emission. The InfoCrop model was used for assessment of the climate change impacts on crop growth, yield and plant behavior of wheat and maize crop of some selected locations of Bangladesh. To assess the impact of climate change on wheat and maize production of Bangladesh, weather data including daily average maximum and minimum temperature daily precipitation, solar radiation, humidity etc were collected from Bangladesh Meteorological Department and crop related data were collected from the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) and from the farmers. Climate data of different locations of different years were collected to generate the base line scenario and historical trend and IPCC assumptions for temperature increase were used to develop policy scenarios. Computation of climate change impacts on crop yields were based on the crop growth model InfoCrop developed by Aggarwal et al. (2006 a&b). Computation of canopy photosynthesis from the incoming photosynthetically active radiation forms the central part of the crop growth simulation models. Light and temperature were the driving variables and photosynthetic parameters were constants. Rectangles represent quantities (state variables), valve symbols for flows (rate variables), circles were auxiliary variables (converters), full lines were flows of material and dashed lines were flow of information. Under favorable growth conditions, light, temperature, and the crop characteristics for phenological, morphological, and physiological processes were the main factors determining the growth rate of the crop on a specific day. The model follows a daily calculation scheme for the rates of dry matter production of the plant organs, the rate of leaf area development, and the rate of phenological development (growth stages). By integrating these rates over time, dry-matter production of the crop was simulated throughout the crop growing season and the yield of the crop was computed. Development and growth processes were dry matter production, dry matter partitioning, leaf area growth and phenology were studied.

Crop growth model discussed above was used to simulate the crop production for climate change conditions. Radiation use efficiency changes for the changes in temperature and CO₂ levels as a result of climate change and these changes have been incorporated in this crop model to assess the climate change impacts on crop production. Crop data were provided for simulation in InfoCrop model. The simulation was carried out to predict the yields of wheat under different climatic trends of temperature and carbon dioxide concentration for assessment of wheat production of Bangladesh. The simulation was also carried out to predict the climate change impacts on the yields of wheat for historical and IPCC trends of both the temperature and CO₂ changes for a period of 2010-2050.

Source of Information: Annual Research Report, Irrigation and Water Management Division, BARI--2013-14

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

1.

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

The model was simulated to assess the impacts of temperature increase of 0.5^oC, 1^oC, 1.5^oC and 2^oC for wheat in Dinajpur region and the simulated results are shown that for an increase of 2^oC temperature wheat yield reduces from 3528 to 1658 kg/ha in Dinajpur region. This implies that temperature has a negative impact on wheat yield. Predictions have been made using a fixed concentration of atmospheric CO₂ of 370 ppm and then increased at a level of 380 ppm, 390 ppm, 400 ppm and 410 ppm. Simulated results show that the increase in CO₂concentration from 370 ppm to 410 ppm increases wheat yield from 3528 kg/ha to 1658 kg/ha in the Dinajpur region. Simulated results also show that increase in CO₂ concentration has positive impacts on the yields of rice. The simulation was carried out to predict the yields of wheat under different climatic trends of temperature and carbon dioxide concentration. All of the treatment show the negative effect on wheat in Dinjapur region of Bangladesh. It is observed from the previous section that due to increases of CO₂level yield is increased but from the combined effect of temperature and carbon dioxide, the yield of rice is decreased. From predictions of the rice yields under different treatments, the sensitivity analysis shows that the effect of temperature increase on the crop yields is more pronounced than that of CO₂ level increase i.e. temperature is more sensitive to crop yield in comparison to the CO₂ level. The yearly maximum mean temperature range was found from 28.92⁰C to 30.69⁰C and the yearly mean maximum temperature was observed by 30.69 in 2001 in the study area. The yearly minimum mean temperature range was 16.59⁰C to 20.69⁰C in the year of 1981 and 1999, respectively. It was observed that the variation of the temperature affect the agriculture crop production system and causing instability to agricultural economy in the study area. Simulation study was carried out for wheat in Dinajpur region for 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 for both historical trend and IPCC assumptions. These assumptions are based simply on the trend line analysis. From the analysis of historical data over the last 32 years (1981-2012), it was found that the monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures increase about 0.01117⁰C per year and 0.033⁰C per year, respectively and if this trend line is extended up to 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050, maximum temperature will increase by 0.11⁰C, 0.22⁰C, 0.33⁰C and 0.44⁰C and minimum temperature will increase by 0.33⁰C, 0.66⁰C, 0.99⁰C and 0.1.32⁰C respectively.

InfoCrop model based on radiation energy use efficiency in photosynthesis was used to simulate crop growth and to predict climate change impacts on wheat production in Dinajpur region of Bangladesh. The growth and yield of crops are directly related to the rate of photosynthesis and phenology and their responses to temperature, solar radiation and rainfall. The crop model is sensitive to CO₂ emission levels and has a positive impact on wheat production. The research is on going. So, simulation study on the effect of climate change for wheat and maize production in other major wheat and maize growing areas of Bangladesh will be done using infocrop model. The results obtained using infocrop model will also be compared other available crop growth model (DSSAT, APSIM) in the next year.

Knowledge Management: Report/Proceedings