Agricultural Research Management Information System

Home
Research Summary
Search
About Us
- ARMIS
- Brochure
Contact Us
Report
User Request
Data Input
Help
- Operation Manual
  - PDF
  - Video
- Program Area & Commodity
We have reached 37600 number of research entries at this moment.

- Logout

Research Detail

Home
Research
Detail

Growth and Supply Response of Winter Vegetables Production in Bangladesh

M.G. Mostofa
Agricultural Economics Section, Horticultural Research Center, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute, Gazipur

M. Rezaul Karim
Agricultural Economics Section, Horticultural Research Center, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute, Gazipur

M.A. Monayem Miah
Agricultural Economics Section, Horticultural Research Center, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute, Gazipur

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The study estimated growth rates and supply response functions for winter vegetables in Bangladesh using time series data. Growth analysis revealed that area indices for various vegetables considering five years moving average showed an overall increasing trend over the period from 1970-1974 to 2000-2004. The production indices of different winter vegetables showed also an increasing trend over the period from 1970-1974 to 2000-2004 with slight exception in the production of brinjal. The average growth rates of winter vegetables area and production were 2.26 % and 2.92 % during pre-adoption period (1970-1990) and 3.68 % and 3.6 % during post adoption period (1991-2006) respectively. Significant structural charges occurred in the area and production of various winter vegetables during post adoption period due to policy effect and autonomous production as well. Positive structural change has also been registered in the yield of winter vegetables due to adoption of improved variety. Supply response functions fitted for various vegetables reveled that lagged area and relative yield risk significantly influenced farmers to allocate land under tomato and radish.

Keywords: Growth, Lagged relative price,Llagged relative yield

Location: Agricultural Economics Section, Horticultural Research Center, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute, Gazipur

Start Date: 00-00-1971

End Date: 00-00-2006

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Commodity: Vegetables

Objectives:

1. To determine the growth rate of area, production and yield of various winter vegetables.

2. To estimate the structural change in the production of different winter vegetables.

3. To assess the effect of price factors on the acreage response of some winter vegetables.

4. To give some policy guidelines.

Methodology:

Time series data on area, production and yields of different winter vegetables for 35 years from 1971/72 to 2005/06 were obtained from the year book of Agricultural statistics of Bangladesh. The whole period (1971/72-2005/06) was divided into two major periods viz periods I (1970/71-1990/91) and periods II (1991/92-2005/06) to compare the rate of changes occurred in the area, production an yield of different winter vegetables and explore the causes of changes. Measuring the Trend of Change - Five year moving average was used to estimate trend and indexes were prepared to compare the change in area, production and yield of different vegetables considering 1970-1974 as base period. Five year moving average was taken because period of time was very long (30 years). In addition, variation observed in area, production and yield were not so fluctuated. Growth Rate Estimation The growth rates of area, production and yield of vegetables were worked. Out by filling a semilog function of the following type: Y = e^bt or lny = lna+ bt Where, Y = Area (ha) or production (ton) or yield (t ha^-1), t = time period (year) Test of Structural Stability - It was assumed that the effect of policy reform might influence vegetables production during post adoption period (1991-2006) as number of improved vegetables technologies were developed and disseminated to the farmers during these periods. In that period, government has to emphasize for open market economy and agricultural subsidy was the highest. As a result, particular dates were chosen. Structural stability test was performed to verify the structural changes occurred in the area, production and productivity of different vegetables between two periods. In this study from 1970 to 1990 was treated as period-I (non adoption period of improved vegetables variety and from 1991-2006 was treated as period- II (adoption period of improved vegetables variety). Dummy variable technique was used to test the structural stability. Estimation of Supply Response - Nerlovian partial adjustment lag model was used for estimating supply response for various winter vegetables production in Bangladesh. The model implies that the change in current area is in proportion to the difference between the long run equilibrium area and an actual area in the previous year. The double log (natural) form of the Nerlovian Partial model was employed in view of its suitability to the data.

Source of Information: Thai Journal of Agricultural Science 2010, 43(3): 175-182

Article Link (Online Journal): www.thaiagj.org

Funding Source:

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

The study has analyzed the growth of area, production and yield of various winter vegetables and estimated the supply response functions for different winter vegetables in Bangladesh. Area indices show that the area under brinjal slightly decreased over the period from 1980-1984 to 1985- 1989 compared to the base year of 1970-1974 .Again, cauliflower, cabbage and radish represented an impressive increasing trend over the period from 1970-1974 to 2000-2004 .The production indices of different winter vegetables showed an increasing trend over the period from 1970-1974 to 2000-2004 with exception in the production of brinjal. The area and production of cauliflower, cabbage and radish, registered higher growth rates, while brinjal and tomato were found less growth rates over the period of 36 years (1970-2006) .Significant structural changes have been occurred in the area and production of various winter vegetables during post adoption period due to policy effect and autonomous change. Yield of winter vegetables increased significantly during post adoption period due to adoption of improved variety. Supply response functions fitted for various vegetables revealed that lagged area and lagged relative yield risk significantly influenced farmers to allocate land for tomato and radish.. They do not consider relative yield risk in cultivating these two vegetables. The lagged relative yield of cauliflower, cabbage, tomato and radish has significant impact on acreage allocation under these vegetables.

Knowledge Management: Journal