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Perception of and Adaption Capacities to Climate Change Adaption Strategies by the Rice Farmers: a Case of Rajshahi District in Bangladesh

Bikash Chandra Ghosh*
Lecturer
Department of Economics, Pabna University of Science & Technology, Pabna-6600, Bangladesh

Md. Ataul Gani Osmani
Research Student
Department of Economics, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi-6205, Bangladesh.

Md. Elias Hossain
Professor
Department of Economics, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi-6205, Bangladesh.

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

This paper evaluates rice farmers’ perception and climatic variability using climate record. Adaptive capacities of rice farmers to climate change adaption strategies for the Rajshahi district were also identified. Forty two years of climate data on temperature and rainfall (1972-2013) from the Bangladesh Metrological Department (BMD) for Rajshahi weather station were collected and analyzed using non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Questionnaire survey was conduct to understand farmers’ perception and adaptations in response to changing climate and variability. The results revealed that an increase in annual temperature of +0.04º C form 1972 to 2013 has be recorded for the Rajshahi district, Bangladesh, whereas annual rainfall has not exhibited any trend but Sen’s slope is negative for rainfall implies decreasing trend with time. The adaptive capacities of rice farmers were estimated quantitatively and categorized into high, moderate and low adaptive capacities. Result of adaptive capacities revealed that on the average the farmers’ interviewed are moderately adaptive to climate change. As high adaptive farmers obtain higher amount of rice therefore, the more a farmer has the ability to adjust to climate change, the more the amount of rice he or she obtain. Rice farmers should be empowered through better extension services in order to attain high adaptive capacity status so as to help them obtain more rice output.

Keywords: Adaptive Capacities, Adaptive Strategies, Climate Change, Farmers’ perceptions, Rajshahi District, Bangladesh.

Location: Rajshahi district, Bangladesh

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Non-commodity: Adoption of technology

Objectives:

This paper aimed to improve the understanding of local farmer’s perception of climate changes, explore the ways they were affected by them, and how well they were adapting to them.

Methodology:

Study Area and its Characteristics: Rajshahi is in the heart of the drought-prone northwestern region of Bangladesh. The district has an area of 2407 km² with a population of 2.4 million people (population density of 997/km²), making it the largest district of the Barind Tract (33% of the region). Because of its predominant dependence on crop agriculture, the district is referred to as the ‘bread basket’ of the country. This area was purposively selected for this study. The reasons behind this selection were: (i) it is characterized by high temperature and very low rainfall which make it severely drought-prone and (ii) rice farming is the major livelihood-supporting activity. Average annual rainfall across the district varies from 839 mm to 2,241 mm. The average total rainfall for the period, 1964-2009, is 1,505 mm for the district compared to 2,408 mm for the whole country. The atmospheric temperature in the district is as high as 44^oC in May and as low as 6^oC in January. In terms of extreme climate events, the district is severely drought affected; however, almost free from cyclones and floods . Rice is the principal crop and major livelihood activity in the study area. Among different varieties of rice, rain-fed transplanted Aman (popularly known as T. Aman) is the leading rice crop which occupies 56% of the total area under rice, followed by Boro (27%) and Aus (17%). Data Sources: Both primary and secondary data were collected to complete the present study. Secondary data for different climatic variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) was collected from Bangladesh Metrological Department, Dhaka for the Rajshahi weather station which covers the period 1972-2013. A cross-sectional survey to collect data from farming households in the Rajshahi District was also adopted for this study. Household data were collected from 4 randomly selected villages in the district during November to December, 2014. A multi-stage random sampling technique was employed to select the Upazillas (sub-districts), villages and households. At the first stage, random sampling was used to select two Upazillas (e.g. Godagari and Tanore). At the second stage, two villages were selected from each of the selected Upazillas, making a total of 4 villages (e.g. Deopara, Matikata, Saranjai and Badhair). As the number of farming households within each village varies considerably, a predetermined number of 10% households from each village were selected for the survey which gives a sample size of 200 for the 4 villages surveyed (50 from each village). This is considered to be sufficient: Bartlett et al. (2001) considered 5% to be adequate for cross-sectional household surveys. Furthermore, rural farming communities in the study area make up a mostly homogeneous group which also validates the use of a small sample (Blaikie, 2010). The unit of analysis was the rice farming households, and these were selected by simple random sampling using the list of rice farming households collected from the Sub-Assistant Agricultural Officers (SAAOs). Then, a structured questionnaire was administered in-person to elicit data regarding several aspects of adaptation strategies practiced by farming households and their socio-economic characteristics, institutional access, farm characteristics and perception of climate change. Data Analysis: For statistical analysis, descriptive statistics, percentile and 5-point ordinal scale was employed to ascertain the farmers’ perception of the climate change and adaption capacities to climate change adaptive strategies. However, the farmers perception were corroborated with the actual trend of the climatic variability using a Mann-Kendall trend test which is used to detect long-term trend of the metrological variables (e.g., temperature and rainfall, in the study area).

Source of Information: Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development www.iiste.org, Vol.6, No.2, 2015 ISSN 2222-1700 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2855 (Online)

Article Link (Online Journal): http://iiste.org/Journals/index.php/JEDS/article/viewFile/19376/19953

Funding Source:

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

The result of the study revealed that an increase in annual temperature of +0.04º C from 1972 to 2013 has been recorded for the study area where as annual rainfall has not exhibited any trend but Sen’s slope is negative which means decrease in rainfall in the study area. Evidence from official data has revealed that temperatures have risen and rainfall has decreased in the Rajshahi district over almost last 50 years. The findings of this study revealed that farmers’ perceptions of climate change are also consistent with official records and other studies. The study also determined the adaptive capacities as well as the degree of adaptive capacities of rice farmers to each climate change adaption strategy. The result of this study revealed that farmers are highly adaptive to the changing planting dates, early maturing rice varieties and drought tolerant rice varieties where as farmers are moderately adaptive to the use of chemical/organic fertilizer, farming near water bodies, mixed cropping, improved irrigation and set up shallow tube well in pond. Generally, farmers are moderately adaptive to climate change adaption strategies as this was justified by the average adaptive capacity value 0.52, but it was found that only 16.5% farmers had high adaptive capacities where as 45.0% farmers had low adaptive capacities for this study area. Based on the findings and field level surveyed experiences it can be said that farmers with high adaptive capacities get higher rice output, rice farmers should be empowered in order to attain high adaptive capacity status.

Knowledge Management: Journal