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Inter-district Rice Water Productivity Differences in Bangladesh: an Empirical Exploration and Implications

Mohammad Alauddin
School of Economics, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia

Bharat R. Sharmab
International Water Management Institute (IWMI), New Delhi 110012, India

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

While the bulk of research on crop water productivity (WP) focuses on static cross-section analysis, this research provides a spatio-temporal perspective. It estimates rice crop WP for 21 Bangladesh districts for 37 years; explores WP variations among districts; and investigates causality involving WP, intensification and technological variables; and groundwater irrigation and depth. It breaks new grounds by probing these significant but unexplored issues. Technological diffusion was the key factor explaining inter-district WP differences. The impact of agricultural intensification on rabi (dry season) and kharif (wet season) crop WPs was positive and negative respectively. Dummy variables typifying policy transition negatively impacted on WPs for both kharif and overall crops. While rabi and kharif rice WPs grew with time, overall crop WP recorded the strongest growth. Rabi and overall WPs were lower in salinity- and drought-prone districts covering 33% of Bangladesh's net cropped area (NCA). In 90% of Bangladesh's NCA districts, technological diffusion caused WP. Causality existed between groundwater irrigation and depth in 60% NCA. Despite significant potential to increase WP, increasing dependence on groundwater appears unsustainable. Widespread diffusion of HYVs in the kharif season, and development of salinity and drought-tolerant rice varieties could go a long way in sustaining rice WP.

Keywords: Water productivity, Agricultural intensification, Technological diffusion, Policy transition, Spatio-temporal perspective, Granger causality, Groundwater dependency.

Location:

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Crop-Soil-Water Management

Commodity: Water productivity

Objectives:

This paper focuses on the water-saving perspective of agricultural development, implying a higher crop yield/m³ of water use

Methodology:

Measurement of Water Productivity: Measurement of water productivity entails significant methodological issues. This is because, it involves the use of both scientific and statistical information on a range of variables including water requirements for crops, precipitation and evapotranspiration, irrigation, crop calendar, crop output and related data. For a particular crop or a group of crops, WP (Water Productivity) is defined as a ratio of crop output to CWU (Crop Water Productivity).

Factor Analysis, Regression Model and Causal Relations: There might be many variables that influence the dimensions involving agricultural intensification and technological diffusion. It is not possible to include all of them as explanatory variables in the same model. Factor analysis provides an analytical framework to derive an orderly simplification of a relatively large number of variables to a small number of representative constructs that reflect the underlying phenomena. Thus, factor analysis brings together variables that belong to a similar group. For panel data, ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates are likely to be inappropriate due to the presence of heteroscedasticity and first-order autocorrelation. In view of the likely occurrence of these problems, the present study employs generalized least squares (GLS) estimates corrected for heteroscedasticity and first-order autocorrelation.

Data: The data used in this study warrant some discussion as they came from various scattered sources and required further processing for the derivation of water productivity measures. The remainder of this section is devoted to it.

Source of Information: Ecological Economics 93 (2013) 210–218

Article Link (Online Journal): http://www.uq.edu.au/economics/abstract/517.pdf

Funding Source:

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

Overall rice water productivity in Bangladesh is relatively low (0.306–0.459 kg/m³of CWU) both by South Asian and international standards. It is also characterized by significant variation across districts. Spread of HYVs is a key determinant of rice water productivity. However, the spread of this technology in the dry season depends critically on the access to irrigation, more specifically groundwater resources. This notwithstanding, widespread diffusion of HYVs during kharif season is yet to occur. This is due to greater risks and uncertainty due to variable weather conditions. One implication for the increasing incidence of rice cultivation is that the process of agricultural production has become more water dependent. In the dry season, rice and pulses are competing crops. The former is at least one and half times more water-intensive than pulses.

This paper has provided a spatio-temporal perspective of rice productivity analysis in contrast to the received literature almost exclusively dominated by research focusing on static cross-section analysis. Issues taken up for specific investigation include: (a) estimation rice water productivity for 21 districts over 37 years; (b) an explanation of WP differences among districts; and (c) an exploration of casual relationships involving WP on the one hand and agricultural intensification and technological diffusion on the other; and between groundwater irrigation and depth of groundwater table. Bangladesh's situation may not be unique in the world.

Knowledge Management: Journal