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Climate Change and Wheat Production in Drought Prone Areas of Bangladesh – a Technical Efficiency Analysis

Zarin Tasnim
Department of Agricultural Finance, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh

ASM Golam Hafeez
Department of Agricultural Finance, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh

Shankar Majumder
Department of Agricultural Statistics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The present study aims at measuring the technical efficiency of wheat production under changing climate in drought prone areas of Bangladesh. The study employed farm level cross sectional data taken from 100 farmers using purposive random sampling technique from three upazilas of Thakurgoan district of Bangladesh. The study considered two successive years 2006 and 2007 as drought and normal year respectively on the basis of farmers’ opinion and information collected from meteorological station. Semi-logarithmic regression model with dummy variable was used to estimate production variability of wheat due to drought. The findings showed that wheat production decreased by 17.4 percent on an average due to drought occurrence in the study areas. Cobb-Douglas stochastic frontier production function was used to determine the technical efficiency of the wheat growers and the factors which influence technical efficiency in wheat production. The empirical results of technical efficiency model showed that the effects of seed, pesticide, tillage, irrigation and fertilizer costs were significant in the production of wheat. Education, family size, farming experience, credit, extension- contact and farm size had negative effects on technical inefficiency of farmers which indicates that technical inefficiency decreases with the increase of these factors in both normal and drought years. The mean technical efficiencies were 67.00 and 86.40 percent in normal and drought years respectively. The results also indicate a good potential for increasing wheat production by 33 and 14 percent in normal and drought years respectively using the available resources and technology. Wheat farmers should give more attention to their farming practices and should take rationale decision for using farm resources efficiently.

Keywords: Wheat, Technical efficiency, Climate change, Drought

Location: Thakurgoan district

Start Date: 00-00-2006

End Date: 00-00-2007

Program Area: Crop-Soil-Water Management

Non-commodity: Drought

Objectives:

The present study was conducted to measure technical efficiency of wheat production under changing climate in drought prone areas of northwest Bangladesh with the specific objectives:

to assess production variability of wheat due to adverse effect of climate change; and
to estimate the technical efficiency of wheat production under changing climatic condition.

Methodology:

Selection of Area, Sample and Sampling Technique: Drought is a common phenomenon in the northwestern districts of Bangladesh (Banglapedia, 2003). For the present study, Thakurgoan district was purposively selected from drought prone agro ecological zone (AEZ) of northwest Bangladesh. Thakurgoan is one of the largest wheat producing areas in the northwestern region of Bangladesh. By following the same logic of concentration of wheat production, three upazilas of Thakurgoan district namely Thakurgoan sadar upazila, Pirganj upazila and Ranisankail upazila were purposively selected. For selection of sample, a list of the wheat growers in the selected upazilas was prepared with the help of extension officials of the upazilas. Simple random sampling technique was used to draw samples from the list. A total of 100 sample farmers comprising 35 each from Thakurgoan sadar and Pirganj upazila and 30 from Ranisankail upazila under Thakurgoan district. Data were collected by using pre-tested interview schedules through direct interview method considering two years - 2006 and 2007. These two successive years 2006 and 2007 were considered as drought and normal year respectively on the basis of farmers’ opinion and information collected from meteorological station. The survey was conducted during the period of September-October, 2009. The collected data were then summarized, tabulated and analyzed according to the objectives set for the study. Analytical Techniques- Production Variability Analysis: Semi-logarithmic regression model with dummy variable was used to estimate production variability of wheat due to drought occurrence in the study areas. In this regression model production was considered as the dependent and the drought considered as independent variable. Production of wheat varied extremely due to drought between two selected seasons. The existence of extreme values of dependent variable (production) leads to employ semi-logarithmic regression model for the study which provides higher values of coefficient of multiple determination (R²). To estimate the production variability of wheat the following semi-logarithmic regression model was proposed: lnY = β0 + β₁D₁ + U........(1) Where, ln = Natural logarithm; Y = Output of wheat (kg/ha); D₁ = Dummy for drought (1 = drought occurrence in the study area; 0 = otherwise); β₁ = Slope coefficient of dummy for drought; U = Random error term. Technical Efficiency Analysis: Farrell (1957) was the pioneer of the frontier measure of efficiency which reflects actual farm performance and can include all relevant factors of production. Farrell’s article on efficiency measurement led to the development of several approaches to efficiency and productivity analysis. Among these the stochastic frontier production (Aigner et al., 1977); (Meeusen and van den Broeck) and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) (Chamse et al., 1978) are the two principal methods. As noted by Coelli et al. (1998), the stochastic frontier is considered more appropriate than DEA in agricultural applications, especially in developing countries, where the data are likely to be heavily influenced by the measurement errors and the effects of weather conditions, diseases, etc.

Source of Information: Journal of Agricultural Science; Vol. 7, No. 1; 2015 ISSN 1916-9752 E-ISSN 1916-9760

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

The findings of the study showed that wheat growers were efficient in wheat production and able to produce maximum output with existing inputs. Climate change affected adversely the production of wheat and reduced output level. On an average, wheat production has decreased by 17.4 percent due to drought during the drought year in the study areas. Mean technical efficiency estimated by Cobb-Douglas stochastic frontier function showed that there was a huge potential for increasing wheat production through the improvement of technical efficiency of wheat growers in the normal and drought years. The findings also showed that the farmers were more efficient in drought year than normal year. Farmers were more efficient in using existing inputs and technology to cope with adverse effect of climate change on production. In order to increase production, farmers should be provided additional training on climate change adaptation strategies, extension services, micro- credit to operate their farm efficiently. High price of fertilizers affected the application of fertilizer in wheat field. In this regard, government should take necessary action for supplying sufficient fertilizers to the farmers in time at an affordable price. Initiatives related to climate change adaptations should be made through field-level application and community involvement. Integrated efforts should be made by the government as well as NGOs and international organizations to mitigate the impact of drought.

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