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Rice Vision for Bangladesh: 2050 and Beyond

M S Kabir
Director( Admin and SS)
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), Gazipur 1701, Bangladesh

M U Salam
Department of Agriculture and Food Western Australia (DAFWA), South Perth, WA6151, Australia.

A Chowdhury
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), Gazipur 1701, Bangladesh

N M F Rahman
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), Gazipur 1701, Bangladesh

K M Iftekharuddaula
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), Gazipur 1701, Bangladesh

M S Rahman
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), Gazipur 1701, Bangladesh

M H Rashid
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), Gazipur 1701, Bangladesh

S S Dipti
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), Gazipur 1701, Bangladesh

A Islam
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), Gazipur 1701, Bangladesh

M A Latif
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), Gazipur 1701, Bangladesh

A K M S Islam
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), Gazipur 1701, Bangladesh

M M Hossain
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), Gazipur 1701, Bangladesh

B Nessa
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), Gazipur 1701, Bangladesh

T H Ansari
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), Gazipur 1701, Bangladesh

M A Ali
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), Gazipur 1701, Bangladesh

J K Biswas
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), Gazipur 1701, Bangladesh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

Combined efforts of the farmers, rice scientists, extension personnel along with the support of the Government of Bangladesh had had it possible resulting clean rice growth rate of 0.34 million ton (MT) year^-1 during 2009-10 to 2013-14 in the country. In 2014-15, the country acquired a rice surplus of about 2 MT. However, maintaining the current surplus of rice in the coming decades seems to be a great challenge. A viable and authentic estimation of future rice requirement together with future resource availability could properly guide to way forward in this regard. The paper examines all aspects related to rice production to consumption and presents rice vision for Bangladesh up to the year 2050 and beyond. In the study, secondary data from various sources like, government, research institutes and others were collected, analyzed and synthesized to develop models and eventually to generate outputs; such population for the coming period, rice production and rice requirement. Population of Bangladesh will reach 215.4 million in 2050, when 44.6 MT of clean rice would be required. With the pace of rice-production-increase in the last five years, production could reach 47.2 MT, having a surplus of 2.6 MT in 2050. The study sets, 2.6 MT as the target of clean rice surplus every year up to the year 2050 and beyond. Several hurdles, such as increasing population, decreasing resources and increasing climate vulnerability, could hinder in achieving the target. Three major interventions; viz; accelerating genetic gain, minimizing yield gap and curtailing adoption lag, had been worked out to be appropriate and proposed to break the barriers in achieving the target. Notable challenges to implement the interventions include, shrinking of net cropped area, scarcity of water for irrigation and increasing pressure on soil fertility. Smart technology such as; location specific variety, profitable cropping sequences, innovative cultural management, and mechanization coupled with need-based dissemination using multiple means would ease production related barriers. The authors finally recommended a number of measures, such as; guaranteeing a minimum of amount of net cropped area, accelerating the rate of genetic gain in varietal development and intensifying collaboration among the stakeholders to reduce adoption lag in particular of newly released promising modern rice varieties, to achieve the rice vision of Bangladesh.

Keywords: Rice, Adoption lag, Genetic gain, Population,

Location: Secondary information spread all over Bangladesh

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Knowledge Management

Commodity: Rice

Objectives:

To provide a policy guideline in order to ensure sustainability of rice production in Bangladesh up to 2050 and beyond.

Methodology:

Secondary data (both published and unpublished) were collected from different government and research institutes,analyzed and synthesized to develop model parameters for population prediction, rice production and requirement, rate of production increase in rice, adoption lag of varieties developed by the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), yield gap, cropping intensity, net cropped area, soil organic matter (SOM) and rice yield relationship etc.The model “Project PopBD” was developed and used to estimate population of Bangladesh from 1973 to 2100, considering 66.4 million as the base population in the year 1972 (UNPD, 2015).The model “Clean RiceReq” was developed and used to calculate yearly requirement of clean rice in Bangladesh as a function of population. In this study, production of clean rice estimated by the model is designated as the “target production” of rice for the future. In the present study, two factors were considered that could adversely affect future rice production in Bangladesh; (i) gradual decrease in rice land, and (ii) stagnation of national rice yield. Three interventions were employed in order to maintain the current momentum of rice production in Bangladesh. Those were: (i) accelerating genetic gain, (ii) minimizing yield gap, and (iii) curtailing adoption lag of rice varieties in the field. The outputs of the model run for the mentioned three interventions were expressed as deficit or surplus of clean rice requirement compared to the “target requirement”. The “target requirement” was the amount of clean rice (MT) needed to maintain the expected surplus in 2050.Relationship between net cropped area and rice area was estimated through regression analysis. For this, 38 years’ simulated data (2013 - 2050) were used. These data were generated from present study. Thereafter, a relationship between national average clean rice yield and critical net cropped area was established. The critical net cropped area, as defined earlier, is the minimum net cropped area as a function of national average clean rice yield to meet the predicted rice requirement. Accumulation of soil organic matter (SOM) in a Rice-Rice system was predicted. The ratio of net area sown to the total cropped area or cropping intensity of Bangladesh was calculated based on the net cropped area (NCA), single cropped area (SCA), double cropped area (DCA) and triple cropped area (TCA) of Bangladesh recorded in the Year Book of Agricultural Statistics for different years (1992-2013). The historical data (1972 to 2012) and its trend were used to simulate the long term cropping intensity of Bangladesh. Based on the previous trends, it was considered that SCA would be decreasing gradually for the initiatives of adopting new crops in different stress environment and would reach to 1,789,000 ha in 2037 with the present trend of technological advancement. We further assumed that the SCA would be reduced @ 2% from 2037 on due to adoption of third generation stress tolerant varieties of crops. The model considers the TCA would be increasing @ 44,000 ha year^-1 up to 2,277,000 ha in 2026 onwards, but a part of that would be shifted to four cropped area through the adoption of super short duration crops. The DCA would be decreasing due to shifting DCA to the TCA. The limit of decreasing SCA and increment of TCA up to a certain limit was calculated consulting the database of Elahi et al. (2001) and the dataset of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics for different years.

Source of Information: Bangladesh Rice J. 19 (2) : 1-18, 2015

Article Link (Online Journal): https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjs8Ln2kL3NAhVJtRQKHXRiBX8QFggdMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.banglajol.info%2Findex.php%2FBRJ%2Farticle%2FviewFile%2F28160%2F18731&usg=AFQjCNGx6hsG47qJbF9Zp3KwmDqJJ6FN0Q&s

Funding Source:

1.

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

Bangladesh needs to feed 215.4 million people in 2050. The current consumption of rice is 148 kg person^-1 year^-1, which is decreasing by 0.7 percent each year. This trend is expected to lead the requirement to the threshold level of 133 kg person^-1 year^-1 by 2040. Clean rice surplus in Bangladesh had been proposed to be targeted 2.6 MT in 2050 based on requirement-production scenario. With the current rate of production increase by 0.34 MT year^-1 (averaged during 2010-14), rice production in 2050 could reach to 47.2 MT, given the area under rice remains unchanged. Our model predicts, the clean rice requirement for the country in 2050 would be 44.6 MT resulting a surplus of 2.6 MT. Results show that by incrementally improving genetic yield potential of rice by 0.044 t ha^-1 year^-1, it is possible to secure 2.7 MT of surplus in 2050. If this is to happen, the current national average clean rice yield of 3.17 t ha^-1 will have to be elevated to 4.82 t ha^-1 in 2050. This target could be achieved through three major interventions; -accelerating genetic gain,minimizing yield gap and curtailing adoption lag, pest and disease management, etc. Several to-dos had been identified to implement the interventions taking into account of the limited net cropped area, furthering cropping intensity, scarcity of water for irrigation, alarming state of soil fertility and productivity. Smart technologies, include, use of televisions, Agricultural Call Centre (cell number: 16123), BRRI Web Portal (www.brri.gov.bd), and Bangladesh Rice Knowledge Bank (BRKB), and its mobile apps (www.knowledgebankbrri.org), “Fact Sheets” and BRRI Newsletter, Krishi Bhabna and Krishi Kotha, could also be used for smartly dissemination of technologies. Application of GIS techniques is a good way of presenting a rice variety adoption domain along with time specific dissemination could help in overcoming the production barriers.

Knowledge Management: Journal