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Adoption of Wheat Varieties in Bangladesh: Expert Elicitation Approach

M. A. Rashid
Principal Scientific Officer,
Agricultural Economics Division, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI), Gazipur, Bangladesh.

Tanvir M. B. Hossain
Senior Scientific Officer,
Agricultural Economics Division, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI), Gazipur, Bangladesh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The study was undertaken to find out variety wise adoption rate of wheat in Bangladesh through expert elicitation procedure. Many varieties have been developed by Wheat Research Centre (WRC) but in details of varietal information and adoption information database was not developed which is very important and valuable for the scientist and policy planner. This study through expert elicitation for constructing detail varietal development and adoption database is timely and necessary for the research institute. From all over the Bangladesh 14 experts was invited to share their valuable knowledge and experience on wheat cultivation and adoption in the country. The average age of the experts were 54 yrs and average experience on wheat adoption was 22.65 yrs. The wheat expert informed that 13 major varieties are adopted by the farmers in the recent year (2013-14). Among those varieties, BARI Gom 24 (Prodip) covered highest cultivated area (186026 ha) which shared 41.03% of total wheat cultivated area. BARI Gom 21 (Shatabdi), BARI Gom 26 and BARI Gom 23 (Bijoy) ranked 2nd, 3rd and 4th position according to the share of cultivated area covered. The seed production information showed that BADC the only wheat seed producer supplied 24912.60 mt of wheat seed in the year 2013-14. The trend of seed production by different wheat variety revealed that over the period 2010-14, the seed production of BARI Gom 24 (Prodip) increased and BARI Gom 21 (Shatabdi) decreased. Increased seed production trend of Prodip variety leaded to highest adopted area of that variety. The main reason behind highest adopted area of Prodip variety was it’s very attractive attributes like high yield, big spike, large grain and lodging tolerance character. Although the Prodip covered highest area but other newly developed variety like BARI Gom 25, BARI Gom 26, BARI Gom 27 and BARI Gom 28 were the most promising varieties which showed increasing adoption path among the expert. These varieties have very good potentiality due to having short duration, tolerance to terminal heat stress, tolerant to salinity and lodging attributes. Satisfying higher demand for wheat consumption and ensuring food security through providing alternative to rice are the major concerning issue of the policy planner and the scientist. Therefore, the study have been undertaken to fulfill this issues.

Keywords: Economics, Expert elicitation, Varietal adoption.

Location:

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Non-commodity: Performance

Objectives:

i)     To document and process on varietal release at the national level
ii)   To find out variety wise adoption rate of wheat in Bangladesh and
iii)   To suggest policy implication from the findings

Methodology:

Data and data sources
The main approach is to assemble relevant information and data of most recent year from multiple sources. This study collected time series data from national data sources i.e Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Department of Agricultural Extension. This study heavily collected for varietal development information from Wheat Research Centre (WRC), of Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute. The collected varietal information were sourced from different annual research report of WRC and BARI, Handbook of BARI developed crop varieties and technologies. The authors of this study gathered very valuable information from scientist consultation and expert elicitation (EE) workshop.

Details of experts
A panel of knowledgeable experts about the adoption of wheat cultivars in the zones (ecosystem, season or administrative zone) was formed. The expert panel consisted of 14 experts including scientists (breeders, agronomists, and agricultural economists), extension workers, seed producers & traders, think tank and farmers. The expert informed about wheat production systems in the region as well as at national level. Among the experts, 35.7% were from different national agricultural research institutions. Wheat is grown all over the country sporadically. In spite of that there are some districts where wheat cultivation share is significantly large. Higher wheat cultivation shared district were grouped in to four zones i.e Rajshahi, Rangpur, Jessore and Barisal. These four zones covered 94% of total wheat cultivation area of Bangladesh.

Source of Information: Bangladesh J. Agril. Res. 41(3): 491-505, September 2016 ISSN 0258-7122 (Print), 2408-8293 (Online)

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

1.

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

Many varieties have been developed by WRC but in details of varietal information and adoption information database was not developed which is very important and valuable for the scientist and policy planner. This study through expert elicitation for constructing detail varietal development and adoption database is timely and necessary for the research institute. The information provided through this study would help the breeder for improving variety considering reason of non-adoption by the farmers. This valuable information will also help the government and donor agencies in investing more on wheat improvement programs in Bangladesh. From all over the Bangladesh 14 experts was invited to share their valuable knowledge and experience on wheat cultivation and adoption in the country. The average experience of the experts on wheat adoption was 22.65 yrs. The number of total variety released in the Bangladesh was 40 in the period 1965-2014 and highest number of variety released in the period 1996-2000. Very recently, the WRC of BARI developed and released 6 improved varieties from 2010 to till now. In development process of modern varieties WRC of NARS shared 85% of linkage and CGIAR shared 47.5% of linkage. Number of released variety linked with CGIAR was highest in the period 1971-1975 and NARS also had linkage in highest number of released variety on the same period.
The wheat expert informed that 13 major varieties are adopted by the farmers in the recent years. Among those varieties, BARI Gom 24 (Prodip) covered highest cultivated area (186026 ha) which shared 41.03% of total wheat cultivated area. BARI Gom 21 (Shatabdi), BARI Gom 26 and BARI Gom 23 (Bijoy) ranked 2nd, 3rd and 4th position according to the share of cultivated area covered. There is a very minor difference between the expert opinion and published information about percentage of area adopted for wheat cultivation.
The seed production information showed that BADC the only wheat seed producer supplied 24912.60 mt of wheat seed in the year 2013-14. The trend of seed production by different wheat variety revealed that over the period 2010-14, the seed production of BARI Gom 24 (Prodip) increased and BARI Gom 21 (Shatabdi) decreased. Increased seed production trend of Prodip variety leaded to highest adopted area of that variety. The main reason behind highest adopted area of Prodip variety was it’s very attractive attributes like high yield, big spike, large grain and lodging tolerance character. Although the Prodip covered highest area but other newly developed variety like BARI Gom 25, BARI Gom 26, BARI Gom 27 and BARI Gom 28 were the most promising varieties which showed increasing adoption path among the expert. These varieties have very good potentiality due to having short duration, tolerance to terminal heat stress, tolerant to salinity and lodging attributes. Satisfying higher demand for wheat consumption and ensuring food security through providing alternative to rice are the major concerning issue of the policy planner and the scientist. Although many high yielding promising varieties were developed through devoted effort of scientist of Bangladesh, but due to lack of proper planning and implementation the adoption rate of those varieties are very low and speed of adoption are slow. Effective planning to increase seed production and extension are the most important and demanding issue for increasing area adoption and production of high yielding wheat varieties thus consequently ensure food security through increase consumption and reduce import dependency on wheat.

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