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Determinants of Drought Risk Coping Mechanisms Among the Farmers of Northern Region of Bangladesh

Kazi Shek Farid
Department of Rural Sociology, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh-2202, Bangladesh

Nishith Zahan Tanny
Department of Rural Sociology, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh-2202, Bangladesh

Md. Wakilur Rahman
Department of Rural Sociology, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh-2202, Bangladesh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

Drought is a major constraint on agricultural production and livelihood in the north-western region of Bangladesh. An understanding of the effects of drought and farmers’ coping mechanisms is essential in designing technological and policy interventions for effective drought mitigation. The current study investigates the impacts of drought, examines farmers’ coping strategies for drought induced crop failure and the determinants of their mechanism choices by employing both quantitative and qualitative approach. Multiple data sources, including semi-structured interview survey with 218 randomly selected farmers; and four focus group discussions with farmers, local leaders, NGO workers, and government officials were used to capture various aspects of drought risks and coping practices. ‘Multinomial logit’ model was adopted to analyze the factors affecting the decision of coping strategies in response to drought. Results of farm household survey data indicates that the respondents experienced 3.15 droughts on an average in last five years which affected about 15 percent of their crop land and resulted more than 17 percent crop loss per year. Focus group discussions confirm that farmers followed various traditional ex ante and ex post coping strategies in order to avoid crop loss and minimize livelihood constraints. The coping mechanisms mostly adopted by farmers among others were borrowing money, cultivating less water consuming crops and cutting meals. Findings of multinomial logistic regression model reveal that the environment determinant of the choices of coping options was frequency of drought and main socio-economic determinants of coping choices were crop loss due to drought and land holding systems.

Keywords: Drought, Coping mechanisms, Determinants, Farmers, ‘Multinomial logit’

Location: Parbatipur under Dinajpur district and Sherpur under Bogura district

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Risk Management in Agriculture

Non-commodity: Drought

Objectives:

The specific objectives are: to document drought experiences and its effects in the study area; to identify drought coping mechanisms adopted by the farmers; and to examine the influencing factors for adopting coping mechanisms by the farmers.

Methodology:

To examine the factors determining decision to drought mechanisms under climate change scenario in northern Bangladesh, two upazilas namely, Parbatipur under Dinajpur district and Sherpur under Bogura district were selected purposively for field inquisition since these sites are affected by climate change particularly by the drought (Habiba et al., 2011 and FAO, 2009). One union from each upazila was selected randomly. These unions were Boro Chandipur of Parbatipur and Garidaha of Sherpur upazila. After that, four villages from each union, i. e. total 8 villages namely Boro Chandipur, Chaitapara, Jharuardanga, and Kalikabaridanga from Boro Chandipur union and Ramnagar, Kanupur, Hatgari, and Bonga from Garidaha union were selected randomly. All the farmers of these eight villages were the population of the present study. In order to select the sample, a list of all farmers of the study villages were prepared first and then sampling frame was prepared accordingly. After that a list of sample farmers constituting a total of 264 farmers (129 from Parbatipur and 135 from Sherpur) was prepared taking approximately 10 percent and 15 percent of the population from each village by following simple random sampling. Then the farmers who were agreed and gave consent to participate in the survey during visit by the data enumerators become the final sample of the present study. Therefore, the actual sample size was 218 (108 from Parbatipur and 110 from Sherpur). Data collection was carried out through interview survey based on a semi-structured pre-tested schedule, which means the main source of primary data was sample survey. Moreover, four focus group discussions (FGD) were also organized to get overall insights on the existing drought risk and associated coping options in the study areas. Various descriptive and inferential statistical techniques were applied for getting meaningful results. Furthermore, to investigate the coping decision in the study areas, multinomial logistic (MNL) model was adopted to see determinants of choosing different coping mechanisms. In order to determine the factors motivating farmers’ choice of any or combination of coping mechanisms to climate induced drought, the probability model was used where the dependent variable is categorical. MNL model helps to capture the collective influence of different independent variables on the dependent variable. The dependent variable is discrete in nature with multiple choices, so the appropriate model for drought risk mechanism is MNL model (Legesse et al., 2013; Tessema et al., 2013). MNL model was used to determine the influence of explanatory variables on the choice of coping mechanisms to drought

Source of Information: J Bangladesh Agril Univ 17(1): 58–64, 2019

Article Link (Online Journal): https://doi.org/10.3329/jbau.v17i1.40664

Funding Source:

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

The study sought farmers’ existing drought coping strategies and inhibiting factors behind such mechanisms in northern Bangladesh. It is evident from the results of the study that drought coping mechanisms were mainly short-term responses to face the immediate circumstances. Recurrent drought resulted in disruption of production which acted as an exerting force to develop and adopt coping mechanisms to recover from drought. These were still mostly the traditional coping mechanisms including leaving lands fallow, borrowing money and eating fewer amounts, etc. However, as the drought’s frequency and severity are anticipated to enlarge in near future, so these traditional coping mechanisms will no longer be adequate for meeting the emerging challenges. The results of multinomial logit (MNL) model portray that the possibility of farmers’ decision of confining to just 1 to 3 coping mechanisms rather than adopting more than 3 traditional mechanisms were influenced negatively by both frequencies of drought and crop loss due to drought. At the same time, land holding has positive influence on taking no such traditional mechanism in contrast with adopting more than 3 mechanisms. Because farmers who have sufficient amount of land were solvent enough and they did not need to adopt the survival mechanisms immediately to cope with drought. Besides, large rich farmers can think about possible adaptation priorities for future which can be a tough choice for small and marginal poor farmers. We can, therefore, conclude that small and marginal farmers are more susceptible to drought risks and the subsequent losses. Further study needs to be done in exploring small and marginal poor farmers’ coping strategies more rigorously so as to design more comprehensive policies for helping those farmers effectively. Policies should support land holdings of farmer which is expected to resolve consumption as well as income crises during and after drought in the long run through bringing more effective adaptation practices. Similarly, the modern and sustainable adaptation options should be available to farmers. Thus, it will help the resource poor farmers to reduce the economic, social and environmental losses of drought.

Knowledge Management: Journal